price trend
In March, nickel prices rose to the mid to low level of the year and fluctuated.
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on March 16th, nickel prices reached a monthly high of 134991 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.11% from the beginning of the month and a new high in nearly five months; At the end of the month, it fell back to 132066 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 3.81%.
Macro positive support
The signal of domestic economic recovery is clear: the two sessions set targets for GDP growth of 5% and CPI of 2%, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in February (50.2)
Overseas policy disturbance: The cooling of US inflation strengthens expectations of interest rate cuts, but the market expects US tariffs on copper to reshape trade flows
Catalysis of sudden mining events
The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to the shutdown of the world’s third-largest tin mine, and sentiment in the non-ferrous sector is heating up
Indonesia’s nickel mine policy implements measures such as foreign exchange control and resource tax rate hike, intensifying supply side competition
Dual line game of supply and demand
Supply pressure still exists
Global explicit inventory continues to accumulate: On March 28th, LME nickel inventory increased by 5340 tons per month to reach 200304 tons, while Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 872 tons per month to 26799 tons
The price of nickel ore in Indonesia has slightly increased, and if policies such as tax reform are implemented, it may raise the cost of the nickel industry chain
Demand resilience is evident
Stainless steel field: In March, stainless steel prices first rose and then fluctuated at a high level. As of the end of March, the spot price of stainless steel was 12628.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.51% from 12200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. Infrastructure investment provides support, and demand is expected to moderately recover in the second quarter
New energy track: The trend towards high-end and export-oriented ternary batteries is clear, and the demand for nickel is structurally stable
Electroplating and alloys: Demand is relatively stable, buying at low prices and taking on urgent needs.
Future prospects
Short term nickel prices may maintain a strong range of fluctuations, with a focus on:
The final implementation pace of Indonesian policies
→ Inventory turnover during peak season for new energy vehicle consumption
Changes in overseas macro liquidity expectations

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in China was 6760 yuan/ton on March 1st, and 6760 yuan/ton on March 27th. The market price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in China has remained stable this month.
2、 Market analysis
This month, the phosphoric acid market has fluctuated with ups and downs, mainly operating in a volatile manner. In the first half of this month, the domestic phosphoric acid market remained stable with small fluctuations, and prices in some regions fell. The phosphoric acid market mainly digests early-stage orders, with limited market transactions. In mid month, the market for phosphoric acid rose. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has increased, leading to an increase in cost support. Phosphoric acid companies have followed suit with the price increase of raw materials. At the end of this month, the market price of phosphoric acid fell. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. The phosphoric acid market is mainly cautious and cautious, with prices slightly falling.
As of March 27th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, in Sichuan region it is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan region it is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600-7300 yuan/ton.
Raw material yellow phosphorus market. This month, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell. In the first half of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise. The supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is tight, and manufacturers have raised prices, resulting in low market inventory. At the end of this month, the price of yellow phosphorus fell. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with downstream demand for replenishment and cautious procurement. It is expected that the short-term yellow phosphorus market will remain stagnant, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.
3、 Future forecast
The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been stable with a weak trend in recent days. At present, the stable price of raw material yellow phosphorus is the main focus, and the phosphoric acid market remains cautious, with a balanced supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the domestic phosphoric acid market will remain stable and stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 8258 yuan/ton on March 1st and 8038 yuan/ton on March 26th, a decrease of 2.66% during this period. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 10150 yuan/ton on March 1st and 9700 yuan/ton on March 26th, a decrease of 4.43% during this period. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8387 yuan/ton on March 1st and 8407 yuan/ton on March 26th, with a 0.24% increase during this period.

Linear and high-voltage products continued to decline in March, while low-voltage products saw a slight increase, but the upward potential was limited. Among them, low-voltage products: After a slight increase in price at the beginning of the month due to equipment maintenance and production conversion news, the quotation has loosened. Affected by the release of some new production capacity, there is still pressure on the supply side, and the market mentality is bearish. Manufacturers and traders are selling at lower prices. In March, agricultural film entered the peak demand season. Although downstream production increased, the follow-up volume of new orders was limited, and overall demand fell short of expectations, resulting in a sluggish peak season. The demand in other industries has not changed much, and the mentality towards raw material demand is cautious. The market’s ability to receive goods is not smooth, and there is insufficient support on the demand side.

The recent rise in oil prices has strengthened cost support; The supply side is sufficient, and the newly added production capacity in the first quarter will continue to be released in the second quarter; The recovery of downstream demand is slow, and demand is lower than in previous years. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly operate weakly.

The domestic phenol market is weak and declining. According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, the domestic phenol market price dropped from 7625 yuan/ton on March 18th to 7527 yuan/ton on March 24th, a decrease of 1.28%.

Sinopec’s North China phenol listing price has been lowered by 150 yuan/ton, with an execution of 7450 yuan/ton. After the price reduction on the 24th, terminal buying enthusiasm was weak and delivery declined.

At the beginning of the week, although the inventory at Jiangyin Port decreased and traders’ early offers were expected to boost prices, the demand was sluggish and low-end offers increased. Under the pressure of supply from traders, they offered discounts and shipped goods. With factories lowering their listing prices, the market center of gravity fell in the afternoon.

At present, the operating rate of phenol is close to 80% and overall stable. As of the 24th, the phenol offers in various mainstream markets across the country are as follows:

Region/ Quotation on the 24th/ Zhou’s ups and downs

East China region/ 7350./ -150

Shandong region/ 7450./ -120

Surrounding areas of Yanshan Mountain/ 7450./ -120

South China region/ 7600./ -100

The cost and demand sides are relatively weak, with the majority of end-users focusing on essential needs. The participation of intermediate traders has declined, and there is considerable pressure for holders to ship goods, with many offering discounts. In the short term, the domestic phenol market is operating weakly.

In March, the market for epichlorohydrin continued to decline due to negative downstream demand. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9050 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.47% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: In the first half of March, the propylene market showed an upward trend due to changes in supply and demand, and began to fluctuate in the middle of the month. The cost of propylene based epichlorohydrin still has some support. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6885.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.06% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton). The glycerol market has experienced a narrow correction in price due to external and domestic demand, with a price drop of 1.94% compared to the end of last month.

Supply side: Overall, the supply of epichlorohydrin in the market will increase.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin industry has weak demand, and the overall market is mainly declining. On March 12th, the mainstream negotiation price in the Shandong market was 9200-9300 yuan/ton for acceptance and factory delivery, a decrease of 7.5%. The lack of positive purchasing mentality among traders has created negative constraints on the epoxy chloropropane market.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there is still some support on the raw material side. Although the glycerol market has been narrowly downgraded due to external influences, the expected decline is limited. Part of the production enterprises on the supply side will restart their equipment, and the market for epichlorohydrin will increase. On the downstream side, demand is difficult to increase, and traders have a passive purchasing mentality. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the market will continue to affect the weak trend of the epichlorohydrin market, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.