This cycle (20240904-20240912), the acrylic acid market is on the rise. As of September 11th, the reference price of acrylic acid is 6775.00, an increase of 0.36% compared to September 1st (6750.00). The price of acrylic acid has risen. After the downstream entered the replenishment cycle last week, there has been an increase in inquiries and purchases in the market, and the market demand has improved compared to the previous period. In addition, the acrylic acid plant has been shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply. Acrylic acid manufacturers intend to push up prices.

In terms of cost

This week, the price of propylene in the market has been adjusted narrowly, with some regional market quotations slightly falling. Downstream demand for replenishment is mainly due to bargain hunting, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited. As of September 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6845.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.76% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton). At present, it is expected that there will be a narrow adjustment in the price of propylene market in the short term, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the follow-up of downstream demand in the later stage.

In terms of demand

The price of butyl acrylate has decreased. This week, the butyl acrylate market has slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. Downstream manufacturers have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and transactions are mainly dominated by first-time contract holders. The focus of butyl acrylate quotations is gradually shifting downwards, and the upstream cost support is also limited. In the short term, it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to remain weak, and it is recommended to purchase according to demand.

In summary, the domestic market for acrylic acid and butyl acrylate showed a volatile trend in August due to multiple factors. At the beginning of September, the upstream and downstream may still maintain a game state, and against the backdrop of weak overall demand, narrow fluctuations in market prices may become the norm.

In early September, the domestic ABS market was weak and consolidated, with some grades experiencing a decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 10th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11587.50 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -1.07% compared to the price level on September 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: In early September, the load level of the domestic ABS industry was average, and the total repair capacity of enterprises was slightly higher than the resumption capacity. The operating rate of the domestic industry was reduced by 3% to about 62%. However, due to slow digestion of the supply, the narrow reduction in supply has not led to a decrease in overall inventory. Recently, ABS finished product inventory has slightly accumulated at over 180000 tons. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: Within this ten day period, the overall trend of the three upstream materials of ABS has fallen twice and remained flat, which has a poor support effect on the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market experienced narrow fluctuations and consolidation, which differed significantly from the expectations of the traditional peak demand season in the market. At the beginning of the month, due to a decrease in the company’s negative load to 63.72%, the offer rose slightly by 100 yuan per ton before returning to calm. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to face weak demand pressure in the short term, and prices may maintain a volatile trend.

Recently, the butadiene market has remained stable with small fluctuations. The arrival of goods from ports within the range and the emergence of exports to the northern region have alleviated the problem of tight supply in the northern market. The downstream market demand has returned to a moderate level, which has limited support for the market atmosphere. Overall, the supply and demand pattern may both weaken in the short term, and it is expected that the butadiene market will turn weak and fluctuate.

The styrene market has fallen this week. Due to the significant decline in crude oil prices, the price of pure benzene has been dragged down, and the cost support of styrene has cooled down. However, the demand for styrene spot goods remains strong, and there may even be a slight increase within the next ten days. Recently, there have been fewer maintenance visits to the styrene plant, resulting in relatively abundant supply. However, the inventory pressure at ports in East China is relatively low. There is a struggle between long and short positions within the venue, making it difficult for industry players to build confidence. It is expected that there will still be a slight decline in the future market.

In terms of demand: Since September, the main terminal demand for ABS has not yet shown the peak season level, but has continued the off-season trend. Home appliance manufacturers are gradually ending their high-temperature holidays, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the stocking operation is mainly based on weak demand. Traders have a low willingness to build warehouses, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In early September, the domestic ABS price trend was relatively soft. Upstream three materials fell, two fell, and one remained flat, providing poor comprehensive support for the cost side of ABS. Recently, the load position of ABS polymerization plants has decreased, and the inventory of finished products has remained stable with small increases. The weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues, and market trading remains weak. Some enterprises in the future have plans to increase their load, and in the absence of peak season demand, the mismatch between supply and demand may be difficult to correct. It is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak trend in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP drops again in September

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8463.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.01% from the DOP price of 8726.25 yuan/ton on September 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to the price of 12091.67 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the year, it has decreased by 30%. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the price of plasticizer DOP continued its previous decline in September, hitting a new low for the year.

Supply and demand relationship of DOP in September

In September, the plasticizer market entered the traditional peak season, with downstream customers stocking up more and DOP manufacturers actively shipping. Manufacturers’ supply was tight, but the quality of gold nine was insufficient, and the growth of plasticizer demand was limited. The support for DOP rise was insufficient, and DOP prices fluctuated and fell.

The cost of raw materials continues to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the price of isooctanol was 7800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.30% from the price of 7983.33 yuan/ton on September 1st at the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price of isooctanol decreased by 12950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.77%. During the traditional peak season of Jinjiu, the production of isooctanol manufacturers increased, the supply of isooctanol improved, downstream enterprises actively purchased isooctanol, and isooctanol manufacturers shipped smoothly. The price of isooctanol supported the upstream raw material prices, and the cost of isooctanol raw materials decreased, resulting in a further decline in isooctanol prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81% from the price of 7587.50 yuan/ton on September 1st at the beginning of the month; On September 9th, the price of ortho benzene was 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.33% from the price of ortho benzene on September 1st, which was 7900 yuan/ton. In September, the market for ortho phthalic anhydride experienced a significant decline, with cost support decreasing and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride falling. The purity of Jinjiu is insufficient, and the demand for plasticizers has not rebounded as expected. The support for the rise of phthalic anhydride is limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fallen.

Demand recovery falls short of expectations

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the rubber and plastic index was 690 points on September 8th, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 34.91% from the highest point of 1060 points during the cycle (2012-03-14), and an increase of 30.68% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present). At the end of August, the rubber and plastic industry market rebounded, and the rubber and plastic index stopped falling. There is a trend of recovery in the rubber and plastic industry, but the quality of the gold nine is insufficient. In September, the rubber and plastic index fell, and the rubber and plastic industry market declined. The demand for plasticizers did not recover as expected.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, due to the impact of the decline in crude oil prices, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell in September, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; In terms of demand, the rubber and plastic industry index declined in September, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover as expected. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, sulfur prices have slightly decreased this week. On September 2nd, the sulfur price was 1465.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.73% compared to the sulfur price of 1425.00 yuan/ton on September 6th, and an increase of 11.76% compared to the beginning of last month.

The sulfur market has slightly declined this week. The sulfur production during the week was 216200 tons, an increase from last week. Manufacturers shipped smoothly, while refineries lowered their prices slightly based on their own shipment situation. In terms of ports, the atmosphere of terminal and trader replenishment gradually weakened, which weakened the support for the spot market. The sulfur market price remained stable with small fluctuations.

2、 Market analysis

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain:

The downstream sulfuric acid market is running sideways. On September 6th, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of last month, an increase of 14.29%. The production of on-site enterprises is stable, the market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, stocking is followed up as needed, acid companies have average shipments, manufacturers are in a stalemate, and the short-term sulfuric acid market is operating on a wait-and-see basis.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is weak and declining. On September 6th, the average price of 55% powdered ammonium was 3323.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the price of 3336.67 yuan/ton on September 1st. Downstream demand has shown weak performance, new order follow-up is weak, market transactions are insufficient, and manufacturers face significant sales pressure, resulting in a decline in ammonium prices.

3、 Future forecast

The sulfur analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current market trading atmosphere is mild, and downstream enthusiasm is average. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will remain stable and wait to see, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

The epoxy chloropropane market first rose and then stabilized in August. In early August, multiple production enterprises underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in tight market supply. The decrease in supply has caused traders to push up market prices. In mid August, market trading volume weakened, and some companies offered discounts for sales. The market atmosphere gradually cooled down, and prices fell and stabilized. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 7987.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% compared to the beginning of this month (7975.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: Recently, the price of propylene in the market has slightly increased, and the price of liquid chlorine has also slightly boosted. The supply volume has increased, but the increase in supply has limited its price rise. The price of raw material glycerol remains stable, and overall cost pressure still exists. The quotation for epichlorohydrin is firm. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of August 30th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6968.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.62% compared to the beginning of this month (7083.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The consolidation and operation of the downstream epoxy resin market is the main focus, with a production capacity utilization rate of over 50%. There is sufficient inventory, and some factories are temporarily shutting down to adjust the load of their equipment under inventory pressure. Downstream terminal inquiries are not active, cautious procurement of raw materials, insufficient follow-up on new orders, and weak signing volume.

Market forecast: Business Society’s epoxy chloropropane analyst believes that there is still cost pressure on epoxy chloropropane, insufficient follow-up of downstream new orders, cautious procurement of raw materials, and the main demand for transactions. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy chloropropane market will mainly operate weakly and steadily, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices.