Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market remained stagnant in mid August, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various brands. As of August 20th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 16283.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.11% compared to August 1st.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In mid August, the overall operating rate of domestic PC remained stable with a slight increase, and the industry average operating rate narrowly increased by 1.8% to 75% compared to early August. At the end of July, spot prices fell to the lowest point of the year, and manufacturers increased their efforts to raise prices and build a bottom. In the middle of the year, aggregation factories worked together to raise prices to cover up merchant shipments, but the results showed little effect. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and Wanhua Chemical plans to restart on the 20th, with industry demand expected to be high, stable, and slightly rising. The on-site supply of goods will still remain abundant, and overall, the market supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the current domestic price trend of bisphenol A continues the weak pattern in the first half of the year. In the early stage, the increase in international crude oil prices was suppressed by weak demand prospects, which in turn affected the weakness of bisphenol A raw materials phenol and acetone. Since then, the support for bisphenol A from the raw material side has weakened. The bisphenol A industry has limited changes in terms of load, with a flat trend in supply and a stalemate in supply side support. The downstream production of the two main forces has weakened, with weak inventory and rigid demand procurement, resulting in poor liquidity of the supply of goods. Overall, the support of bisphenol A for PC costs has decreased. However, due to the recent increase in geopolitical instability, there is a possibility of rising oil prices. It is recommended to closely monitor the upstream trends in the far end.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern did not show any improvement in mid August, and the overall trend remained weak compared to the previous period. The main logic of procurement is biased towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. Downstream enterprises have low loads, weak stocking enthusiasm, and low consumption levels. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods and have a negative response to the rally from aggregation factories. The circulation of goods on site is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market remained stagnant in mid August. The weak trend of upstream bisphenol A market continues, and the support for PC cost side weakens. The load of domestic polymerization plants remains stable with a slight increase, but there has been no improvement in supply side factors. In the early stage, PC prices fell to the low range of the year, but the market did not rebound due to bottoming out forces. On the contrary, downstream weak rigid demand consumption is difficult to drive the market. The market supply flow is poor, and the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (8.9-8.19). On August 9th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47% from 7350 yuan/ton on August 19th. The mixed xylene market is still declining this cycle, but the magnitude of the downward adjustment varies among different regions, with a decline range of 100-250 yuan/ton. As of August 19th, the mainstream price range for xylene in the South China market in the morning was 7250-7350 yuan/ton (out of tank), a decrease of 150 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The crude oil market experienced a wide range of fluctuations within the week, with insufficient guidance for the market. Sinopec’s listing prices and prices of refineries across the country have generally decreased, especially in the Shandong region where refinery prices have fallen sharply. Currently, the market atmosphere is weak. On the demand side, we will continue to make essential purchases this week, but there is insufficient demand for oil products. The focus of negotiations is relatively low, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Cost wise: During this cycle, the international crude oil market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. As of August 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.65 per barrel, a decrease of $1.51 or 1.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.68 per barrel, a decrease of $1.36 or 1.7%.

Supply side: As of August 19th, Sinopec’s xylene prices have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and sales. The company’s prices have remained the same as the previous day. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7200 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7200 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7250-7350 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7250 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The phthalic anhydride and xylene markets are operating weakly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline this week, with downstream factories maintaining their essential purchases and high-end transactions being hindered. As of August 19th, the mainstream price range for ortho phthalic acid source negotiations in the market is between 7500-7700 yuan/ton; The mainstream price range for naphthalene based source negotiations is 7300-7400 yuan/ton. The price of raw material ortho benzene is stabilizing, and the downstream plasticizer market is rebounding and rising. The operation of on-site merchant equipment is stable, and the sales situation is average. The phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing in the future.

On August 19th, Sinopec Sales Company’s xylene price dropped by 200 yuan/ton, and the current execution price is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 16th, the closing price of the xylene market in Asia, CFR China, was between $934-936 per ton, a decrease of $48 per ton from last week.

On Friday (August 16th), the Asian xylene market closed partially lower: FOB Korea closed at $824-826/ton in September, unchanged; In September, China closed at $851 per ton, a decrease of $3 per ton.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is experiencing wide fluctuations, with limited impact on the market. On the supply side, there are expectations of an increase in the operating rate of some refinery units in Shandong region, coupled with the recent influx of more goods to ports in East China, and an expected increase in port inventory. The market expects loose supply in the future, and there may be negative factors in the supply side. The demand side has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, there are still negative factors in the xylene market, and it is expected that prices will remain weak in the short term. Prices will be relatively low in the near future, and we will focus on downstream market acquisition.

Isooctanol prices hit bottom and rebounded this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the price of isooctanol was 8300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 4.60% compared to the price of 8700 yuan/ton on August 9th last weekend; Compared to August 15th, the price of isooctanol rebounded and rose by 0.40% to 8266.67 yuan/ton. Partial isooctanol manufacturers are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in isooctanol supply; The demand for plasticizers is expected to rebound, downstream enterprises have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol, manufacturers of isooctanol have increased their willingness to raise prices, and the support for the price increase of isooctanol has increased. The price of isooctanol has hit the bottom and rebounded.

The price of raw material propylene first fell and then rose

According to the Business Society’s propylene commodity market analysis system, as of August 16th, the price of propylene was 6865.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.93% compared to the price of 7000.75 yuan/ton on August 9th; Compared to August 13th, the price of propylene fluctuated and rose by 6850.75 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.22%. Crude oil prices rebound and rise, while propylene cost support still exists; Acrylic manufacturers are operating at low loads, with tight supply and continued fatigue in downstream demand. Propylene prices have rebounded slightly, and the cost support for isooctanol has increased.

Downstream plasticizer prices hit bottom and rebounded this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 16th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9051 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9251 yuan/ton on August 9th last weekend; Compared to August 15th, the DOP price of 9001 yuan/ton hit the bottom and rebounded, with an increase of 0.56%. Jin Jiu is approaching, and terminal demand is slowly recovering. The order situation has slightly increased, and the market sentiment is showing positive expectations. The weather has turned cooler, and the willingness of injection molding industry terminals to stock up has increased. The construction and infrastructure industry is expected to slowly recover in September, and the demand for plasticizers has rebounded. The price of plasticizer DOP has hit the bottom and rebounded.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, in terms of cost, propylene prices first fell and then rose, while isooctanol cost support still exists; In terms of demand, the plasticizer market has rebounded, and the demand for isooctanol has increased; In terms of supply, there has been an increase in maintenance by manufacturers of isooctanol, and some manufacturers have closed their plates and are reluctant to sell. The supply of isooctanol is tight, and manufacturers of isooctanol have a strong willingness to raise prices. In the future, as the supply of isooctanol tightens and demand recovers, it is expected that the price of isooctanol will rebound and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall trend of mixed xylene market has been declining recently (8.2-8.9). On August 9th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.97% from 7610 yuan/ton on August 2nd. The mixed xylene market is still declining this cycle, but the magnitude of the downward adjustment varies among different regions, with a decline range of 100-250 yuan/ton. As of August 9th, the mainstream price range for xylene in the South China market in the morning was 7400-7500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The overall decline in the crude oil market during the week has dragged down the mentality of the spot market. The listing price of Sinopec has been lowered based on the prices of refineries in various regions, and the market atmosphere is weak. In terms of demand, we will continue to make essential purchases this week. However, there is insufficient demand for oil products, and the focus of negotiations is relatively low.

On the cost side: During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined. On the one hand, the OPEC+production reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day will be implemented until the end of September, but from October onwards, depending on market conditions, production may gradually increase, which is bearish for the crude oil market. On the other hand, the poor non farm payroll data and rising unemployment rate released by the United States in July, coupled with poor global economic data, have intensified market concerns about the demand outlook and increased negative pressure on the psychological level, leading to a decline in the crude oil market trend. Overall, the crude oil market has significantly declined during the cycle, with a negative rate of change in crude oil. As of August 9th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $76.84 per barrel, an increase of $0.65 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.66 per barrel, an increase of $0.50 or 0.6%.

Supply side: As of August 12th, Sinopec’s xylene quotations have generally decreased this week. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotations remain unchanged from the previous day. Among them, the East China Company quoted 7350 yuan/ton, the North China Company quoted 7450 yuan/ton, the South China Company quoted 7400-7500 yuan/ton, and the Central China Company quoted 7450 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the phthalic anhydride market continued to decline this week. As of August 9th, the phthalic anhydride market in Shandong region showed a weak and stable trend, and downstream factories maintained their essential procurement. High end transactions were hindered, and the mainstream for on-site ortho phthalic anhydride source negotiations was between 7500-7700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week; The mainstream price for naphthalene based source negotiations is 7300-7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week. The price of raw material ortho benzene is weak and stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is fluctuating and falling. The operation of on-site merchants’ equipment is stable, and the sales situation is average.

On August 12th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 8500 yuan/ton. This price is implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally. As of August 8th, CFR China’s closing price was 983 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 22 US dollars/ton from last week.

On Friday (August 9th), the Asian xylene market was closed due to a public holiday. The market closed on August 8th, with FOB Korea closing at $851-853 per ton in August, unchanged; In September, CFR China closed at $885/ton, unchanged.

Market forecast: Limited support in the crude oil market, low oil prices dragging down market sentiment, and currently insufficient cost support. There is an expectation of an increase in the operating rate of some equipment on the supply side, and the market expects loose supply in the future, which may lead to negative factors on the supply side. The demand side has recently shown weak performance, with demand leaning towards rigid demand. Overall, there are still negative factors in the xylene market, and it is expected that prices will remain weak in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the impact of the resumption of xylene production on the market supply side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, TDI prices in East China have steadily increased this week. As of August 9th, the average market price in East China was 14100 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 13633 yuan/ton on August 5th, and has risen by 3.42% this week.

This week, the TDI market continued to rise, with one production line in Gansu Yinguang shutting down during the week and two lines entering a state of complete shutdown and maintenance over the weekend. The supply side tightened, and at the same time, overseas suppliers had a strong willingness to raise prices, pushing up prices slightly multiple times. The market’s transaction center continued to shift upward. Downstream demand remains stable, with rigid demand as the main factor, and favorable supply side conditions boosting TDI prices.

The upstream toluene market continues to decline, with crude oil prices falling within the week, dragging down market sentiment and overall bearish market sentiment. On the supply side, with the increase of port cargo, the supply is relatively loose, which affects the bearish market atmosphere.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market trading is stable, and with the supply side’s good news coming out in the future, it is expected that the TDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.