According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (7.12-7.19). The average market price at the beginning of last week was 275460 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of this week was 261610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.03%.

The recent decline in tin prices is mainly influenced by fundamentals and macro sentiment. Recently, although the export of Indonesian tin ingots has not fully recovered, the marginal export volume has gradually increased, and the Myanmar mine has also increased due to the clearance of inventory from the beneficiation plant last month. The supply side support for tin prices has decreased. Lunxi significantly reduced its inventory at the beginning of the year, and currently its inventory has dropped to around 4000 tons, with a reduction rate of nearly 50%. Domestic inventory reached a high of 19400 tons at the end of May, and after a month of destocking, it dropped to 16100 tons in July. Domestic and international destocking provides support for tin prices.

On the demand side, semiconductor consumption is expected to improve solder material consumption this year, but currently has limited impact on overall demand. Domestic tinplate has shown some improvement driven by exports, but the accumulated inventory pressure is not small.

It is expected that the exchange will maintain a destocking status in the third quarter. The supply-demand contradiction is not severe, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 16th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was 8945.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% compared to last Thursday (July 11th).

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that the epoxy propane market has been rising recently. As of July 16th, the mainstream price reference for epoxy propane in Shandong’s market is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends:

On the cost side: Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly and weakly, and the price of raw material liquid chlorine has risen slightly. The cost side continues to support the epoxy propane market.

Supply and demand side: In recent times, there have been fluctuations in individual devices, with an increase in new orders for downstream polyether. The demand side has also improved, leading to an improvement in the shipping atmosphere for enterprises. The focus of negotiations in the epoxy propane market has shifted upwards. With the rise in prices, downstream procurement attitudes are cautious, with a focus on observing and following up appropriately.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that short-term market cost support still exists, and there is currently no pressure on supply side inventory. Downstream stable follow-up is the main trend, and it is expected that the epoxy propane market may rise steadily in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

On July 16th, the domestic fluorite market trend declined. The mainstream price for fluorite negotiations in Inner Mongolia was 3400 to 3500 yuan/ton, in Jiangxi it was 3600 to 3700 yuan/ton, and in Henan it was 3550 to 3700 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of high temperatures and heavy rainfall, some fluorite production was restricted, and the supply remained tight. However, downstream demand for fluorite did not improve, and on-demand procurement was the main focus. The fluorite supply situation was average, and the fluorite market was weak and declining.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 21100 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 20480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% and an increase of 12.53% compared to the same period last year. On July 14th, the bromine commodity index was 71.86, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.69% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 21.96% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine has been running weakly, with prices in Shandong region running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton, and there is a large amount of imported bromine arriving at the port. The production of bromine in brine and seawater is stable. The downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, with poor demand, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 67.96% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and agricultural and intermediate demand is average, resulting in poor demand. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to operate weakly in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has fallen this month, with a price of 9318 yuan/ton on July 1st; On July 12th, the price was 8834.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 36.54% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The inventory of ports in East China has increased. The inventory of pure benzene in ports in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, and there is an increase in downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene. It is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. The pure benzene market stopped falling after a downturn. At present, negotiations for pure benzene are approaching 8750 yuan/ton.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8800 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

The market price of styrene has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. At present, the inventory of styrene at the port is low, and the production of styrene units has decreased significantly, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations. However, downstream demand is weak, which may suppress the rise of styrene prices. Business analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 rose $0.52 per barrel or 0.63% to 82.62; ICE Brent Oil Futures 09 contract rose $0.32 per barrel or 0.38% to 85.40. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2408, fell 0.1 to 621.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.9 to 620.3 yuan/barrel during the night trading session.

The price of raw materials rebounded after a continuous decline, and there is sufficient supply of pure benzene on the market. In mid July, there were more shipments from Jiangsu to the port, and pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term. We are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.