In March, the market for epichlorohydrin continued to decline due to negative downstream demand. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 21st, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9050 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.47% compared to the beginning of this month.

Price influencing factors:

Raw material side: In the first half of March, the propylene market showed an upward trend due to changes in supply and demand, and began to fluctuate in the middle of the month. The cost of propylene based epichlorohydrin still has some support. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6885.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.06% compared to the beginning of this month (6813.25 yuan/ton). The glycerol market has experienced a narrow correction in price due to external and domestic demand, with a price drop of 1.94% compared to the end of last month.

Supply side: Overall, the supply of epichlorohydrin in the market will increase.

Downstream demand side: The downstream epoxy resin industry has weak demand, and the overall market is mainly declining. On March 12th, the mainstream negotiation price in the Shandong market was 9200-9300 yuan/ton for acceptance and factory delivery, a decrease of 7.5%. The lack of positive purchasing mentality among traders has created negative constraints on the epoxy chloropropane market.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that there is still some support on the raw material side. Although the glycerol market has been narrowly downgraded due to external influences, the expected decline is limited. Part of the production enterprises on the supply side will restart their equipment, and the market for epichlorohydrin will increase. On the downstream side, demand is difficult to increase, and traders have a passive purchasing mentality. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the market will continue to affect the weak trend of the epichlorohydrin market, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market fluctuated within the range this week (3.17-21), and the price performance was weak. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4894 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.12% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, PVC’s weak consolidation was the main focus, with some manufacturers lowering their prices by around 50 yuan/ton during the week. The main reason is the lack of favorable fundamentals, resulting in weak performance of crude oil prices and a downturn in the futures market. PVC prices continue to show a weak trend, with a slight downward shift in the overall range. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, the spot PVC market has shown loose supply and demand, and most manufacturers are operating stably. The supply pressure has not changed much, dealers’ offers are generally weak, downstream demand performance is insufficient, downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the market atmosphere is sluggish. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4800-4900 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream calcium carbide, since March, the market price of calcium carbide has stabilized and risen narrowly. This week, the price increase was weak, and the price has stabilized. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price fluctuation this week was 0. The price is still relatively low, with limited support for PVC.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the PVC spot market remains weak, mainly due to insufficient downstream operating rates, average demand, and difficulty in improving the supply-demand pattern in the short term. It is expected that PVC prices will continue to maintain a range adjustment pattern next week.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11800 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11760/ton, a decrease of 0.34% in price.

This week, some domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have fallen, while most have remained stable. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 8800-12000 yuan/ton. The market is mainly dominated by inquiries, and industry insiders are mainly observing and focusing on market transactions.

The shipment of coconut shell charcoal for applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges has accelerated, especially for gold charcoal, which has received more inquiries from the African market; The shipment of fruit shell charcoal is smooth. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, so pay more attention to the transaction situation.

Prediction: The trading atmosphere in the activated carbon market is sluggish, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated slightly and declined recently (3.11-3.18). As of March 18th, the spot rubber market in China was around 16571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from 16709 yuan/ton on the 11th. Raw material prices have fallen slightly from high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market fluctuated and weakened, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.

At present, foreign natural rubber supply will gradually enter an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are consolidating at a high level, and it is expected that they may decline in the future. As of March 18th, the price of Thai glue was 67.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 67.50 baht/kg on March 11th.

Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of March 16, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 599300 tons, an increase of 10700 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the demand for natural rubber market. As of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at a high level, but in the later stage, with the opening of some regions at home and abroad, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The downstream construction is gradually increasing, which provides some essential support for the demand for natural rubber, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to grow slightly; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

This week, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of isooctanol was 7466.67 yuan/ton, which first rose and then fell compared to the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on March 7th, and fluctuated and fell by 0.58% compared to the price of 7510 yuan/ton on March 11th. There is a significant increase in production capacity of isooctanol, leading to an increase in supply from isooctanol manufacturers; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high levels, with stable demand for isooctanol and reduced downward pressure on isooctanol.

The price of downstream plasticizer DOP first rose and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the DOP price was 8101.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.46% compared to the DOP price of 8138.75 yuan/ton on March 7th; Compared to March 11th, the DOP price of 8251.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 1.82%. Plasticizer DOP enterprises have increased production, plasticizer output has recovered, demand for isooctanol has stabilized, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has weakened.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, downstream demand has rebounded, and the supply of isooctanol has increased, causing the price of isooctanol to rise first and then fall. In the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will recover, the production of plasticizers will increase, the demand for isooctanol will rise, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises will increase, and the supply of isooctanol will increase. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.