According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has fluctuated slightly and declined recently (3.11-3.18). As of March 18th, the spot rubber market in China was around 16571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% from 16709 yuan/ton on the 11th. Raw material prices have fallen slightly from high levels; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory continues to increase; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market fluctuated and weakened, driving the natural rubber spot market to slightly decline.

At present, foreign natural rubber supply will gradually enter an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. Currently, natural rubber raw material prices are consolidating at a high level, and it is expected that they may decline in the future. As of March 18th, the price of Thai glue was 67.00 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 67.50 baht/kg on March 11th.

Natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, but overall it remains at a high level. As of March 16, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 599300 tons, an increase of 10700 tons or 1.82% compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the demand for natural rubber market. As of March 14th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 8.30%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 6.9% of the load.

Market forecast: When domestic and international raw material prices stabilize at a high level, but in the later stage, with the opening of some regions at home and abroad, the price of natural rubber raw materials may continue to fall. The downstream construction is gradually increasing, which provides some essential support for the demand for natural rubber, but the inventory of Tianjiao Port continues to grow slightly; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

This week, the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the price of isooctanol was 7466.67 yuan/ton, which first rose and then fell compared to the price of 7466.67 yuan/ton on March 7th, and fluctuated and fell by 0.58% compared to the price of 7510 yuan/ton on March 11th. There is a significant increase in production capacity of isooctanol, leading to an increase in supply from isooctanol manufacturers; Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at high levels, with stable demand for isooctanol and reduced downward pressure on isooctanol.

The price of downstream plasticizer DOP first rose and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 17th, the DOP price was 8101.25 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 0.46% compared to the DOP price of 8138.75 yuan/ton on March 7th; Compared to March 11th, the DOP price of 8251.25 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 1.82%. Plasticizer DOP enterprises have increased production, plasticizer output has recovered, demand for isooctanol has stabilized, and the downward pressure on isooctanol has weakened.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product, downstream demand has rebounded, and the supply of isooctanol has increased, causing the price of isooctanol to rise first and then fall. In the future, the operating load of plasticizer DOP enterprises will recover, the production of plasticizers will increase, the demand for isooctanol will rise, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises will increase, and the supply of isooctanol will increase. It is expected that the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and stabilize in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 14, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6640 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6833 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.83%.

This week, the n-butanol market in Shandong, China, showed a weak downward trend. The n-butanol factories in Shandong region continue to lower the ex factory price of n-butanol by 100-150 yuan/ton. On March 14th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong region was around 6670-6700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of supply and demand: During the mid week period, n-butanol factories in Shandong Province actively shipped goods to maintain low inventory, while downstream users stocked up on small orders at low prices, resulting in poor overall demand and slow transmission of n-butanol supply and demand. As the weekend approaches, the atmosphere of low-level inquiries in the market has improved, and the transmission of supply and demand has slightly improved.

Market analysis in the future

At present, there are maintenance plans for some facilities in the n-butanol field in Shandong Province, and there are expectations of a decrease in the supply side, which has improved the market’s support expectations. Downstream demand is stabilizing and recovering. The n-butanol data master of Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly maintain stable operation, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

This week (March 10-14, 2025), the upstream raw material caprolactam market prices fell under pressure, the nylon PA6 chip market continued to decline, cost support weakened, downstream demand did not improve, the market made on-demand purchases, and on-site actual transactions were limited. Many operators held a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the nylon fiber market prices continued to decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the monthly average price of nylon filament decreased narrowly this week (March 10-14, 2025). As of March 14, 2025, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 16400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week’s price, with a weekly increase of 1.09%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.06%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 17025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.02%.

Raw material caprolactam continues to decline

In terms of cost: Since late February, the market price of caprolactam has entered a downward trend, and the performance of terminal demand has been lower than expected, which has led to a sharp increase in the pressure on polymerization factories to ship. The demand side’s follow-up sentiment towards caprolactam has rapidly cooled down. The market for nylon PA6 chips continues to decline, with weakened cost support. As of March 14, 2025, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 10623 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.61%.

Supply and demand: This week (March 10-14, 2025), downstream market purchasing willingness is not strong, demand has not improved, and the main consumption of raw material inventory is high. There is a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market, with limited actual transactions and insufficient support from the demand side.

Future forecast

Cost wise: The market for caprolactam is bearish, and the production capacity of caprolactam in the market will be released, resulting in an increase in supply. The demand side will maintain on-demand procurement, and the short-term caprolactam market price will be mainly weak.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers have resumed normal production, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream enterprises have a certain amount of raw material inventory, and coupled with insufficient confidence in the future market, the demand for replenishment is limited.

Overall, the spot market for raw material caprolactam and nylon PA6 chips are mainly operating weakly, with poor cost support and continued weak demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the price of nylon filament may continue its weak downward trend.

Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable, and the mainstream price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in the East China market is currently 11500-11600 yuan/ton. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 12th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 12016.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% compared to the beginning of this month (11933.33 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price trend of raw material fluorite has risen this week. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite is tight, and the market situation is rising, which strongly supports the cost of hydrofluoric acid. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 11th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3731.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.95% compared to the beginning of this month (3660.00 yuan/ton).

Recently, the price trend of raw material sulfuric acid in the market has risen, providing favorable support for the hydrofluoric acid market. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of March 11th, the benchmark price of sulfuric acid in Shengyi Society was 547.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.49% compared to the beginning of this month (470.00 yuan/ton).

On the demand side: The downstream refrigerant market is rising, coupled with policy encouragement in the refrigerant industry, demand is expected to achieve substantial improvement. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in raising prices in the refrigerant market. The prices in the foreign trade market have increased, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand, which supports the hydrofluoric acid market.

Market forecast: The recent rise in raw material prices has driven the hydrofluoric acid market to a stronger trend. It is expected that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to operate steadily and strongly in the future, and more attention should be paid to the news of leading enterprises and market supply and demand.