According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (11.18-11.22), with an average market price of 239860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 242280 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.01%.

The recent rebound trend of tin prices within the range. Despite the continued shortage of upstream mineral supply in Myanmar, domestic smelting expectations have increased and there has been no reduction in raw material production.

The tin consumer side is highly sensitive to prices, and last week the tin price was adjusted back for replenishment on the consumer side. In the case of insufficient supply from Indonesia, it is expected that the domestic transfer to destocking will likely continue, but the smelting end will not reduce production, so the destocking will not be too significant. At the end of the year, China entered the off-season for consumption, and imported tin ingots continued to flow in. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate in the future.

Overall analysis shows that insufficient upstream supply provides support for tin prices, but an increase in import volume has a restraining effect on the rise of tin prices. In the short term, the upward trend lacks momentum and is expected to fluctuate and consolidate within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the average quotation price of high-quality DMF enterprises in China was 4160 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market has slightly declined, with prices dropping by 0.48% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus of DMF is weak, and operators have a cautious purchasing mentality. The mainstream market price is around 4100 yuan/ton, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders at low inventory levels.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF has been running weakly with a narrow range, and the price has fallen sharply compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price remains around 4100 yuan/ton, and the overall market trend is weak. The mainstream price range is around 4100-4200 yuan/ton, and inventory is running at a high level. The supply side is sufficient, and downstream procurement is active. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

In terms of cost, the upstream methanol market has been operating steadily with small fluctuations this week, and some units have announced maintenance plans. Currently, the trading atmosphere on site has improved. In the Kanto region, the methanol market is operating steadily, and inventory remains low. There is currently no pressure on inventory, and enterprises in Shanxi region are maintaining the previous shipment rate, with prices showing an upward trend.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term, with little upward momentum. The mainstream price is around 4100-4200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6740 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% lower than the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on November 14th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on November 14th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly declined. As of November 20th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is weak and declining. Downstream price cutting procurement, cautious in purchasing goods. At present, the market transaction atmosphere is quiet, and new orders are limited in volume. It is expected that the domestic price of yellow phosphorus will remain weak in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, maintaining a high level of temporary stability. Downstream on-demand procurement ensures stable shipment of phosphate ore. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with the main focus on issuing preliminary orders. Downstream on-demand procurement, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. There is currently no significant fluctuation in short-term market supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been weak recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand is dominant, with few new orders in the market and average trading. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will observe raw material prices and focus on narrow range consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was generally flat in mid November, and the prices of various brands of products were basically stable. As of November 19th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7585.71 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.09% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the change rate of crude oil remained negative in mid November due to the disturbance of the US presidential election. At the same time, the expectation of easing the geopolitical situation has led to a bearish support for the upstream of PP in the near future. The supply of propylene has been relaxed, coupled with news of new production capacity being put into operation domestically, leading to recent market fluctuations and consolidation. Although propane is suppressed by upstream trends, the inventory position is low, and the costs of propane and PDH production are stabilizing. Overall, the performance of PP raw materials in mid November was average, with moderate support on the cost side.

Supply side:

In mid November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Previously, the equipment maintenance of enterprises such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical has not yet been restored. Recently, Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell also have plans for equipment maintenance, with more production line maintenance than resumption of work. The overall industry load has been reduced from 75% at the beginning of the month to around 74%. At present, the domestic PP inventory is stable at around 690000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous period. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

In mid November, there was limited change in the demand side of PP, and the load of end enterprises generally flattened. The consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remains stable, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down narrowly; The inventory of raw materials in BOPP film enterprises has generally shrunk; The consumption of pipes has slightly rebounded due to the recent policy of lowering the real estate transaction tax. Overall, the demand side is struggling with hedging in various aspects and is generally weak and stable.

Future forecast

In mid November, the domestic PP market prices remained stagnant. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, supply side maintenance is concentrated, but according to market feedback, there are concerns among industry players about the release of new production capacity in the future. In the short term, the market is struggling with the game, and it is expected that PP prices will continue to consolidate and operate.

Analysis: This week (11.11-15), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.69%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, there will be a low season for agricultural demand procurement, and industrial demand will follow suit with sufficient supply. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later period. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.