Cost support has weakened, and the market for polyester staple fiber has maintained a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 24th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6948 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% from the previous trading day. The price of polyester short factories is temporarily stable, with the average ex factory price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions at 7276 yuan/ton.

The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, oil price premiums have fallen, and the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. On February 21st, international crude oil futures plummeted, with the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $70.40 per barrel, a decrease of $2.08 or 2.9%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.43 per barrel, a decrease of $2.05 or 2.7%.

The domestic PTA market followed suit, with an average market price of 5036 yuan/ton in East China on February 24th, a decrease of 1.09% from the previous trading day. The closing price of PTA main futures TA2505 was 5058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75%, with a settlement price of 5074 yuan/ton and a daily increase of 4230 lots. In terms of self supply, two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 5 million tons in southern China were shut down for maintenance as planned in mid February. Some PTA plants were restarted this week, and there is sufficient stock supply. And recently, PTA’s main suppliers have delivered more spot goods, resulting in a significant increase in spot circulation.

The maintenance and restart of the polyester staple fiber device coexist, and the supply is relatively loose. Downstream spinning factories have resumed work and production, but the overall textile market has been slow to start due to limited new orders, funding issues, and labor shortages. The overall resumption pace is slightly later than in previous years, and the demand for polyester staple fibers is weak. The weaving operation rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 60%. In terms of orders, post holiday spring and summer orders fell short of expectations and are mostly in a wait-and-see state. There are no obvious signs of large orders being placed for spring and summer, and weaving manufacturers have fewer new orders. The weak supply and demand structure has dragged down market sentiment.

Business analysts believe that from a cost perspective, the market is concerned about the progress of geopolitical negotiations, and international oil prices may continue to fluctuate. Under the low processing fee, attention still needs to be paid to unplanned PTA plant maintenance. In addition, with the arrival of the “Golden Three Silver Four”, it is expected that the demand for textile and clothing essential orders will gradually increase slowly, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fibers will remain weak in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 21st, the average sales price of PET was 6360 yuan/ton, and the market price fluctuated this week.

Cost wise: Crude oil prices have risen. As of 0:00 on February 21, the WTI price of US light crude oil was $72.51 per barrel, up 0.57%, and the Brent crude oil price was $76.43 per barrel, up 0.51%. At present, the supply and demand fundamentals of the polyester bottle chip market lack obvious drivers, and prices are expected to mainly fluctuate with costs.

Supply side: Xiamen Tenglong will stop for maintenance over the weekend, and China Resources is expected to restart its equipment to produce high-quality products. Next week, the production of polyester bottle chips may decrease to 292800 tons. At the same time, the processing fees in the industry are relatively low, and the supply side continues to shrink, resulting in tight spot circulation in some areas.

On the demand side, it is expected that the construction of soft drinks and oil industries will continue to increase, while the PET sheet industry has basically resumed work. Foreign trade shipments have returned to normal, and there are signs of concentrated shipments in the short term.

In response to the current market situation, Shengyi Society believes that the PET market may have limited volatility in the short term, and overall presents a narrow adjustment pattern. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8012.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% compared to the beginning of this week (7825 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The operating rate of the epoxy propane industry this week is around 75.7%. At present, the 300000 tons/year HPPO plant of Lihua Yiwei Yuan is temporarily suspended from sale starting from the 13th due to upstream and downstream impacts; Resulting in a reduction in the supply of epichlorohydrin, low inventory, and a gradual increase in market prices.

Raw material side: The propylene market on the raw material side fluctuates narrowly, with limited cost support. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6835.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: After the price of epoxy propane hit bottom and rebounded this week, the downstream demand atmosphere has slightly improved, and market trading has rebounded. As some factories gradually resume production, it is expected that downstream will provide some support to the market in the near future.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that while the supply of epoxy propane in the market is reduced, downstream demand has increased. In addition, due to the temporary suspension of sales by large enterprises, the price of epoxy propane in the market may show a slight upward trend under favorable supply and demand conditions, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The listing price of Sinopec East China has been raised by 100 yuan per ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China has been raised by 6550 yuan per ton. Despite the increase in port inventory after the holiday (up to 33000 tons as of the 17th), there is a shortage of social spot circulation resources, and trading prices have risen steadily. Downstream factories have a positive attitude towards replenishment, and inquiries in the market are more proactive, resulting in optimistic transactions. At present, the operating rate of the acetone industry is at a relatively low level of 70%, while the profit of the phenol ketone factory is still at the loss line. The factory intends to increase the listing price.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on February 17th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6600./ 80

Shandong region/ 6600./ 30

Yanshan region/ 6600./ 50

South China region/ 6550./ 100

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the spot circulation resources of acetone are relatively tight, and traders have a positive attitude towards operation. However, terminals are also actively following the trend and will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. It is expected that the offer in the East China region will be between 6600-6700 yuan/ton.

Last week (February 10-16, 2025), the nylon filament market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with cost support still remaining. The downstream market is still in the initial stage of resuming work. In addition, most manufacturers have already stocked up before the year, and currently the main consumption of raw material inventory is low. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is limited, and the actual transactions on site are limited, resulting in insufficient support from the demand side. Many businesses adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the market price of nylon filament is temporarily stable and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament remained stable last week (February 10-16, 2025). As of February 16, 2025, the price of DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) nylon filament in Jiangsu region is 16660 yuan/ton; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 14275 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 17300 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Raw materials slightly increase

In terms of cost: Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been raised to 11450 yuan/ton, and the market price of high-speed spinning nylon PA6 slices has slightly increased. The raw material market price trend has risen during the week, and the cost side support is strong.

Supply demand: Within the week, nylon filament manufacturers have resumed production and work, and the industry’s operating rate has gradually increased. The on-site supply has significantly increased, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable; The nylon filament market is operating at around 6.60% capacity. The downstream market is still in the initial stage of resuming work, and coupled with the fact that most manufacturers had already stocked up before the year, the current consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor, resulting in low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, limited on-site actual transactions, and insufficient support from the demand side.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the upstream pure benzene price is high, and there is little fluctuation in the on-site caprolactam equipment. The demand side mostly maintains on-demand procurement, and it is expected that the caprolactam market price will continue to rise next week.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers plan to resume normal production next week, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work, and each enterprise has a certain amount of raw material inventory. In addition, due to insufficient confidence in the future market and limited replenishment demand, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the nylon filament market will still be weak in the short term.

Overall, there is a possibility of an upward trend in the spot market for raw material caprolactam and the PA6 chip market, with strong cost support and downstream enterprises mainly executing previous orders. It is difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. With mixed news on the market, analysts from Shengyi Society predict a slight increase in the short-term nylon filament market price, with an expected increase of 200-300 yuan/ton.