This week, the domestic epoxy propane market showed a slight upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8012.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% compared to the beginning of this week (7825 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: The operating rate of the epoxy propane industry this week is around 75.7%. At present, the 300000 tons/year HPPO plant of Lihua Yiwei Yuan is temporarily suspended from sale starting from the 13th due to upstream and downstream impacts; Resulting in a reduction in the supply of epichlorohydrin, low inventory, and a gradual increase in market prices.

Raw material side: The propylene market on the raw material side fluctuates narrowly, with limited cost support. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 20th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6835.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6823.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: After the price of epoxy propane hit bottom and rebounded this week, the downstream demand atmosphere has slightly improved, and market trading has rebounded. As some factories gradually resume production, it is expected that downstream will provide some support to the market in the near future.

Market forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that while the supply of epoxy propane in the market is reduced, downstream demand has increased. In addition, due to the temporary suspension of sales by large enterprises, the price of epoxy propane in the market may show a slight upward trend under favorable supply and demand conditions, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The listing price of Sinopec East China has been raised by 100 yuan per ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China has been raised by 6550 yuan per ton. Despite the increase in port inventory after the holiday (up to 33000 tons as of the 17th), there is a shortage of social spot circulation resources, and trading prices have risen steadily. Downstream factories have a positive attitude towards replenishment, and inquiries in the market are more proactive, resulting in optimistic transactions. At present, the operating rate of the acetone industry is at a relatively low level of 70%, while the profit of the phenol ketone factory is still at the loss line. The factory intends to increase the listing price.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on February 17th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6600./ 80

Shandong region/ 6600./ 30

Yanshan region/ 6600./ 50

South China region/ 6550./ 100

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, the spot circulation resources of acetone are relatively tight, and traders have a positive attitude towards operation. However, terminals are also actively following the trend and will continue to operate at a high level in the short term. It is expected that the offer in the East China region will be between 6600-6700 yuan/ton.

Last week (February 10-16, 2025), the nylon filament market temporarily stabilized and consolidated. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with cost support still remaining. The downstream market is still in the initial stage of resuming work. In addition, most manufacturers have already stocked up before the year, and currently the main consumption of raw material inventory is low. The enthusiasm for raw material procurement is limited, and the actual transactions on site are limited, resulting in insufficient support from the demand side. Many businesses adopt a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, and the market price of nylon filament is temporarily stable and consolidating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament remained stable last week (February 10-16, 2025). As of February 16, 2025, the price of DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) nylon filament in Jiangsu region is 16660 yuan/ton; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) quoted 14275 yuan/ton; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is quoted at 17300 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Raw materials slightly increase

In terms of cost: Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam weekly closing price has been raised to 11450 yuan/ton, and the market price of high-speed spinning nylon PA6 slices has slightly increased. The raw material market price trend has risen during the week, and the cost side support is strong.

Supply demand: Within the week, nylon filament manufacturers have resumed production and work, and the industry’s operating rate has gradually increased. The on-site supply has significantly increased, and the performance of the supply side is still acceptable; The nylon filament market is operating at around 6.60% capacity. The downstream market is still in the initial stage of resuming work, and coupled with the fact that most manufacturers had already stocked up before the year, the current consumption of raw material inventory is the main factor, resulting in low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, limited on-site actual transactions, and insufficient support from the demand side.

Future forecast

Cost aspect: In terms of caprolactam, the upstream pure benzene price is high, and there is little fluctuation in the on-site caprolactam equipment. The demand side mostly maintains on-demand procurement, and it is expected that the caprolactam market price will continue to rise next week.

Supply and demand side: Most nylon filament manufacturers plan to resume normal production next week, and the on-site supply will increase significantly. At the same time, the overall inventory level in the market may increase; Downstream manufacturers may gradually resume work, and each enterprise has a certain amount of raw material inventory. In addition, due to insufficient confidence in the future market and limited replenishment demand, it is expected that the driving force from the demand side of the nylon filament market will still be weak in the short term.

Overall, there is a possibility of an upward trend in the spot market for raw material caprolactam and the PA6 chip market, with strong cost support and downstream enterprises mainly executing previous orders. It is difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. With mixed news on the market, analysts from Shengyi Society predict a slight increase in the short-term nylon filament market price, with an expected increase of 200-300 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market overall showed a weak trend this week (February 10-14), with the current average PTA market price in East China at 5084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.67% from the beginning of the week.

At the beginning of the week, the PX market on the raw material side saw a slight decrease in the negative load of the 4 million ton PX plant in East China, and a 400000 ton PX plant in South Korea was shut down, which strengthened the expectation of a tightening of the PX supply and demand pattern. The strong rise in PX provided stronger support for PTA costs. But with the continuous increase of US crude oil inventories, in addition to signals from the Federal Reserve that the pace of macro interest rate cuts has slowed down, and the possibility of easing geopolitical tensions, international oil prices have declined. As of February 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $75.02 per barrel, providing downward support for PTA costs.

In terms of supply, the maintenance of a 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Hainan has boosted the PTA spot market, with an industry operating rate of around 83%. In February, another 2.5 million plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the PTA operating rate is expected to decline. However, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream polyester load has decreased significantly, resulting in seasonal accumulation of PTA supply and demand. Social inventory is expected to reach new highs, and the impact of plant maintenance on PTA supply is limited.

In terms of demand, polyester plants that have reduced production and undergone maintenance before the Spring Festival in February have started to restart one after another, and the operating rate of the domestic polyester industry has slightly increased to over 82%. The terminal weaving market is gradually recovering and recovering after the holiday, but there are fewer new orders. Manufacturers have sufficient stock of raw materials before the holiday and are digesting their previous raw material inventory. In the short term, their willingness to purchase is not strong, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Analysts from the business community believe that with workers returning to their posts after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival), the downstream enterprises will be more willing to replenish their stocks, and the demand will be further repaired. However, there is a possibility of easing the geopolitical situation in the crude oil market, and prices may run weakly, weakening the support for PTA costs. In addition, the pressure of PTA inventory accumulation in February is still relatively high, and the maintenance of some PTA factory equipment has limited impact on spot supply. The overall supply of goods is still abundant, and high inventory still suppresses PTA prices. Therefore, in the short term, PTA prices may continue to be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of TDI in the domestic market has remained stable and high recently. As of this Friday, TDI domestic goods are priced around 14600-14800 yuan/ton, while Shanghai goods are priced between 14800-15100 yuan/ton. The supplier has a strong willingness to raise prices, the downstream market is cautious in entering the market, and the demand for essential goods is the main focus. The downstream has a strong resistance to high priced goods, and it is expected that the TDI market will maintain a high level of operation in the short term.