1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6800 yuan/ton, which is 2.41% higher than the reference average price of 6640 yuan/ton on September 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6966 yuan/ton, which is 1.70% higher than the reference average price of 6850 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices showed a strong upward trend. In the first half of September, the phosphoric acid market showed an upward trend due to rising costs and tight supply. In the second half of September, the market price of phosphoric acid remained stagnant and mainly stabilized.

Market quotation

As of September 29th, the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6770-7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In the first half of September, the market price of yellow phosphorus showed a strong upward trend. Enterprises are mainly reluctant to sell and prioritize placing preliminary orders. In the second half of September, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell. The market trading atmosphere is not good, with poor pre holiday shipments and downstream price cutting procurement as the main focus.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The market price of phosphate ore remained stable at a high level in September, with tight supply in some areas, and the main focus was on issuing preliminary orders. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is tight, and there is a shortage of spot goods. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and procurement is more cautious. Downstream enterprises have basically finished stocking up before the holiday, and there is currently no significant fluctuation in the market situation.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been stagnant, consolidating, and operating recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, and cost support has weakened. But the market supply is still tight, and there is some support on the supply side. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly experience price consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 926 yuan/ton on September 1st, and 883 yuan/ton on September 27th. The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 4.65% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and declined in September. In the first half of September, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises has decreased. Downstream demand has weakened, inquiries have decreased, and there is a resistance to high prices. The export market did not meet expectations, coupled with the decline in urea prices, which has a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. In the second half of September, the market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and fell. Before the holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm was not high, and market inquiries decreased, resulting in a wait-and-see attitude. The export sector is mainly supported by essential needs, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 860 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 860-910 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate experienced a significant decline in September, with the largest drop occurring in the week of September 2nd at -0.55%.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market demand for ammonium sulfate has been poor recently, with downstream price cutting purchases and limited market transactions, with mostly low-priced transactions. There is currently no positive news before the holiday, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on September 26th: 15700 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On September 26th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable temporarily. At present, the market trading is light, approaching the National Day holiday. Manufacturers remain stable, and market quotations are relatively flexible. Downstream and distributors are mainly observing, and actual orders are limited. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be subject to negotiation.

Prediction: It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

Since September, the asphalt market has been continuously bottoming out. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of asphalt in Shandong region was 3520 yuan/ton on September 1st, and on September 24th, the market in Shandong region fell to 3410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9%. The second round of decline is mainly due to poor demand.

On the demand side, demand remains weak and at a historically low level compared to the same period. Last week, typhoons made concentrated landfall in the southern region, and after experiencing “Capricorn” and “Beibijia”, demand gradually encountered obstacles from south to north. The shipment volume in East China, North China, and Shandong decreased, and the construction of downstream terminals in East China was affected by the typhoon weather, resulting in a slowdown in refinery shipments; The construction demand for projects in Shandong and North China has decreased, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the shipment volume has decreased. Poor payment collection from construction sites, poor stocking enthusiasm of operators, and a strong bearish attitude towards spot prices. Yesterday, spot prices of asphalt in Northeast, North, Shandong, and East China regions all experienced a decline.

On the cost side, US commercial crude oil inventories are still at a five-year low, while Cushing crude oil inventories are approaching the critical point of historical low inventories. In addition, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and OPEC+has announced the postponement of production increases and flexible interventions to provide support for oil prices.

On the supply side, the pressure on the asphalt supply side is limited, and there is a possibility of a low-level increase in production. Last week, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company suspended production intermittently, resulting in a loss of 2 million tons/year of production capacity. Qilu Petrochemical has maintained stable production of asphalt, while Jinling Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical have slightly increased production, leading to an overall increase in operating rate. According to the production plan of local refineries in October, the domestic asphalt refining output was 1.33 million tons, an increase of 110000 tons or 9% compared to the previous month. The main refineries slightly reduced their production, but the local refining supply environment has slightly recovered. During the week, there was a significant decrease in social inventory in the Northeast region, mainly due to the shortened construction period of some projects in the area and the increasing willingness of operators to sell at low prices. The Yangtze River Delta region was also affected by typhoons, resulting in a backlog of refinery inventory, which led to an overall increase in factory inventory.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, crude oil has stopped falling, and the cost side has strong support for asphalt. However, the overall demand for asphalt is relatively pessimistic, and the asphalt market is unlikely to improve in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8246 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 8233 yuan/ton on September 24, during which the quotation fell by 0.16%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10350 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 10400 yuan/ton on September 24, with a price increase of 0.48% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8187 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 24, during which the quotation fell by 0.76%.

Recently, the narrow adjustment of polyethylene prices has been the main focus. The cost side support has loosened, and the boost to the polyethylene market is limited. On the supply side, petrochemical inventory has increased. According to data statistics, as of September 23, the plastic two barrel oil storage had 810000 tons, an increase of 35000 tons from last week, a month on month increase of 4.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 40.87%. On the demand side, downstream agricultural film is in the peak season of demand, with continuous increase in operating rates and slow follow-up of greenhouse film orders. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years, with limited support and limited room for growth. Most traders offer discounts for shipments, and downstream transactions are easier with lower prices.

On September 24th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 7844 yuan and closed at 7969 yuan, up 95 yuan, with a high of 7978 yuan and a low of 7834 yuan, up 1.21%. Recently, the polyethylene futures market has fluctuated weakly, providing insufficient support for the spot market.

At the end of the month, enterprises actively destocked and exerted pressure on price increases; As the holiday approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase, and it is expected that the space for polyethylene to rise will be limited, with narrow range operation being the main focus.