According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, the price of 0 # zinc was 25920 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.23% compared to the zinc price of 25980 yuan/ton on December 9th.

This week’s market analysis

This week, the domestic zinc market was positively influenced by the macroeconomic conference, showing an overall trend of first rising and then falling. The content of the meeting has significantly boosted the domestic economy, driving up the price of zinc in the middle of the week. However, by the weekend, the price of zinc futures had fallen slightly, and the market volatility was more intense.

Supply and demand side

The circulation of spot goods has been tightened due to the maintenance of some smelters, and spot prices have generally remained firm. Prices have been raised within the week. The downstream market has a poor receiving atmosphere near absolute high prices and premiums, and the overall trading atmosphere is slightly average.

Inventory situation

Shanghai area: The goods will arrive gradually within the week, but there are significant restrictions on circulation. The downstream inquiry atmosphere is strong, and inventory is gradually accumulating. Guangdong region: Refinery maintenance and delivery are limited, downstream point price outflow mainly follows market fluctuations, and inventory continues to decline. Tianjin region: Northern galvanizing production has improved, procurement has gradually improved, and inventory has slightly decreased.

comprehensive analysis

This week, the zinc market was boosted by the macroeconomic conference and showed an overall trend of increased volatility. Next week, the market will continue to monitor macroeconomic data and changes in supply and demand, and it is expected that there will be adjustments in the premium and delivery situation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was mainly consolidated in mid December, with some brand products experiencing price increases. As of December 17th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic producers and traders is around 7641.67 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of+0.27% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the supply risk has increased due to the geopolitical situation in Syria. At the same time, the positive impact of the OPEC+production reduction plan delay is still present, coupled with the expectation of increased demand in Asia, international oil prices have recently fluctuated and risen, strengthening support for the upstream of PP in the far end. In terms of propylene, the tight supply in North China has improved, and the favorable supply has weakened, resulting in a decline in prices. Propane is operating steadily in response to the trend of crude oil, PDH remained stable at a high level due to its influence. Overall, the recent trend of PP raw materials is still acceptable, and the support on the cost side is also acceptable.

Supply side:

In December, there was a mutual occurrence of maintenance and production of PP enterprises in China, and the overall load level continued the stable trend of the previous period. Overall, the industry’s overall load has only experienced a narrow decline from nearly 75% in the first half of the year to around 73%. The domestic PP shipment volume is flat, with a weekly output of about 670000 tons. Although the supply is still abundant, some newly put into operation facilities are unstable, supporting the mentality of some operators. Overall, the supply side provides average support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

At present, the demand side of PP tends towards rigid demand. Due to seasonal factors, the consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remained stable with a slight decrease during the first ten days. The consumption level of plastic weaving has also declined narrowly, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down; As the end of the year approaches, the decline in enterprise construction and stocking up are intertwined. The slow release of some pre holiday replenishment demand has to some extent boosted consumption. Overall, the demand side tends to have weak fluctuations in most aspects.

Future forecast

The PP market prices in China remained stable in December. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is still acceptable. The supply within the range is flat, but the production situation of some of the put into operation equipment is unstable. According to consumer feedback, businesses are cautious about future terminal consumption and tend to focus on restocking for essential needs. In the short term, it is expected that PP prices will remain stagnant.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 1002 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2% and an increase of 18.93% compared to last year. On December 15th, the chemical index was 839 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 40.07% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (October 23, 2021), and an increase of 40.30% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been weak this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak and declining, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 870-970 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is weak, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, as the main downstream procurement prices have declined, affecting the market atmosphere, caustic soda prices have also declined. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand, and the industry is mainly observing and observing.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 50th week of 2024 (12.9-12.13), there were 0 products with rising prices, 1 product with falling prices, and 5 products with zero rising and falling prices in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodity experiencing a decline is caustic soda (-2.20%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.37%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, caustic soda prices have been weak, the alumina industry has been fluctuating, and non aluminum industry demand has been weak. Downstream consumers are mainly cautious and watching, and the supply-demand game is comprehensive. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a weak operating market in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

The nickel market rebounded slightly this week (12.7-12.13). According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 13th, spot nickel prices were reported at 130641 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.63%.

Macroscopic aspect: From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference determined that the monetary policy in 2025 should be “moderately loose”, the fiscal policy should be more forceful and awesome, and the policy “combination fist” should be played well to boost confidence of all parties. Supporting the rebound of nickel prices.

On the supply side: The global nickel supply surplus continues, with Russia’s major producer Nornickel stating on Tuesday that the global nickel surplus will remain at around 150000 tons by 2025. Shanghai nickel and London nickel inventories are under pressure, and weekly growth has weakened. As of December 13th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 30564 tons, an increase of 985 tons during the week; On December 13th, LME nickel inventory was 164508 tons, an increase of 756 tons for the week.

On the demand side: Electroplating and alloy consumption remain stable, while stainless steel maintains a state of “high output+high inventory+demand neutrality”, with weak fluctuations. We look forward to favorable support from policy meetings. As of December 13th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13192.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month.

Market forecast: There is no significant improvement in demand, buying at low prices, and inventory pressure. There is significant resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices, and it is expected that macroeconomic policy benefits will continue. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has shown a slight decline since December due to the low demand season. As of December 12th, the average price of 1.4D * 38mm in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 7126 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the beginning of the month.

In the future, the crude oil market has been relatively strong recently, which has boosted the cost of short fibers. Although OPEC has lowered its global demand forecast for five consecutive months in its monthly report, the decrease in US crude oil inventories has been offset by an increase in refined oil inventories. However, China’s boost to the economy may increase oil demand, and European and American crude oil futures have risen for the third consecutive day. As of December 11th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.29 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $73.52 per barrel.

This week, the domestic PTA spot market showed a slight upward trend. As of December 12th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4734 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% from the beginning of the week. But its own supply is still sufficient, and the 1.1 million ton PTA plant of Zhuhai Ineos was overhauled for more than 20 days in early December. The total production capacity of PTA at Jiaxing Petrochemical is 3.7 million tons per year, of which the 1 # 1.5 million ton units underwent maintenance on December 12th, and the restart time is yet to be determined. The supply has slightly decreased, and the PTA industry is operating at around 88%. However, the domestic PTA supply remains high, and we are concerned about the progress of Dushan Energy’s 2.7 million ton PTA new plant plan to be put into operation in mid December next week.

The trading atmosphere for cold resistant fabrics at downstream textile terminals is still good, and the atmosphere for inquiries about some spring orders is good. Intermediaries and traders only stock up on demand, and the delivery of domestic and foreign trade orders is coming to an end. As of December 11th, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is less than 70%. At present, factory inventory and financial pressure have increased, and the connection of new orders is not smooth. Weaving manufacturers are cautious and weak in their expectations for the future, and there are still expectations of a decline in production in the weaving industry. With the impact of the off-season of consumption, it is expected that the transaction atmosphere in the yarn market will further weaken, and there is an expectation of weakened demand.

Overall, due to the lack of sustainability driven by favorable costs, as well as sufficient supply and weak demand, the supply-demand structure is weakening, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to decline.