1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20060 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 19860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% and 17.93% compared to the same period last year. On August 25th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.38% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running weakly, and the price of bromine in Shandong region is running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. This week, it is not affected by weather factors, and the rainfall has significantly decreased. The bromine enterprise equipment is operating normally, and the operating rate remains stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. Imports have remained stable at a high level recently. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1384.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1397.67 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 0.96%, which is 28.62% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of plasticizer DOP has significantly increased after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8963.75 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.44% compared to the DOP price of 8501.25 yuan/ton on September 14th. The price of DOP has significantly increased after the holiday. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has increased, coupled with stocking up before the National Day holiday, resulting in an increase in downstream demand for plasticizer DOP.

Expected increase in downstream demand

The concentrated maintenance season for the PVC paste resin industry in 2024 has come to an end, and the maintenance losses in the PVC paste resin industry will gradually recover. The production of the PVC paste resin industry will gradually return to stability, and the total supply of the industry will gradually increase, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers.

The cost of raw materials has significantly increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of isooctanol was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 8.79% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on September 15th. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol increased significantly. The production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, and downstream stocking is concentrated before the National Day holiday. The supply of isooctanol is tight, and the operating rate of downstream plasticizer DOP has increased. The demand for isooctanol has also increased, and the supply and demand in the isooctanol market are tight, resulting in a significant increase in the price of isooctanol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from the price of 7362.50 yuan/ton on September 14th. This week, the price of ortho xylene is 7400 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to before the holiday. The cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, and the phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. The upward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices still exists.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has risen significantly this week, the price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of supply, plasticizer DOP manufacturers have increased production, resulting in an increase in DOP supply; Pre holiday stocking and economic recovery have led to an expected increase in demand for plasticizers. The expected price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the reference average price of 2169 yuan/ton on September 13th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

Recently, the domestic urea market prices have fallen. As of September 19th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1820-1855 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1860 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market is oversupplied. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week. In terms of demand, downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Purchasing is relatively cautious, with low price transactions being the main focus in the market. The demand for autumn fertilizer market needs to be released.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has been experiencing a narrow downward trend recently, with a small number of transactions in the market. At present, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand, and downstream buyers are seeking lower prices, so demand needs to be improved. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of formic acid remained stable in mid September. As of September 18th, the average market price of 85% formic acid in China was 2673 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as last week, with a monthly decline of 3.6%.

The formic acid market is mainly running steadily. Although AstraZeneca is still in a state of production reduction and tight supply, the downstream buying atmosphere is flat, with average trading on the market. Some companies are offering discounts to stimulate shipments, and the focus of the formic acid market is stable but loose.

The production and supply of raw material methanol have increased, and the unloading of foreign ships has increased compared to the previous period, resulting in an overall increase in supply; The demand is positive, especially with a significant increase in port pick-up volume this week. In addition, the impact of some vessel failures and cargo quality issues on unloading speed has led to the accumulation of port inventory. The demand side is relatively cautious about the pace of “double festival stocking”, and downstream industry profits continue to affect purchasing sentiment. The domestic methanol market is mainly focused on consolidation.

The formic acid data analyst of Shengyi Society believes that the current formic acid market performance is deadlocked, short-term cost support still exists, and the demand performance is average. It is expected that the formic acid market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the specific trend still needs to be closely monitored by market news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 9th to September 13th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 7600 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 34.40%. The domestic BDO market is deadlocked after a decline, with light spot trading. The current industry capacity utilization rate has dropped below 60%, and there are certain favorable factors on the supply side. The intention of suppliers to maintain prices limits the market’s downward exploration space. Downstream companies follow up on demand but have resistance to high prices, resulting in a weak overall market performance.

On the supply side, the utilization rate of industry capacity is about to increase. The favorable supply side of BDO is gradually weakening.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: After entering September, under cost pressure, some enterprises have carried out maintenance, load reduction, etc., and the domestic calcium carbide market has entered the stage of inventory consumption. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is weak and volatile. As of 10:00 am on September 14th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2405 yuan/ton. The BDO cost side is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the performance of terminal demand is average, and the demand for raw materials remains just in line, resulting in average production and weak market conditions in many downstream industries. Especially in recent times, the main downstream PTMEG and PBT industries have experienced a significant decline in load, suppressing the trend of raw materials. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

Forecast for the future, downstream companies will maintain the pace of demand and follow suit, while manufacturers will offer according to the market. The supply-demand game continues, and the BDO market is caught in a dilemma of ups and downs. The BDO analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly be dominated by weak consolidation.