1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85% domestic thermal phosphoric acid was 9530 yuan / ton on July 18, and 9170 yuan / ton on July 22. The price of 85% domestic thermal phosphoric acid fell 3.78% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid continued to decline this week. The price of phosphoric acid fell on Monday, temporarily stabilized on Tuesday, and fell again on Wednesday until Friday. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the cost support was insufficient. The on-site supply is sufficient, and the enterprise reduces the price to digest the inventory. Downstream demand is general, mainly low-cost procurement. As of July 22, the ex factory price of 85% domestic thermal phosphoric acid was about 9170 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8700-10100 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 9000 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is about 8600 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is about 10200 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market has been running strongly this week. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1100-1150 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is 980-1030 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal.

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of yellow phosphorus fluctuated and fell this week. At present, the trading volume of yellow phosphorus market is light, and the downstream purchase price is depressed, which depresses the yellow phosphorus market. There is limited room for the yellow phosphorus market price to increase. At present, the market price is relatively deadlocked. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers will not make external quotations for the time being, and will focus on single discussion. This week, the mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 31500-32000 yuan / ton, and that of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 32000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts of business society believe that the cost support is weak due to the continuous decline in the price of raw yellow phosphorus. The supply of phosphoric acid market is greater than the demand, and the downstream purchase price is reduced, and the transaction focus continues to move downward. It is expected that the market trend of phosphoric acid will continue to decline in the short term.

On the 21st, the domestic polyethylene market was mainly weak and downward, and the ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell by 50-200 yuan / ton. The international crude oil price fell, and the support brought by the cost was insufficient. In addition, the terminal demand is weak, the market trading atmosphere is limited, the mentality of merchants is poor, most of them make profits to promote transactions, and the market price follows the decline. It is expected to remain weak in the short term, and there is still room for downside.

The domestic MIBK market fell broadly, and the negotiation reference fell to 10100-10300 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the long-term decline of raw material acetone is obvious. Although there is a correction this week, the trading volume on the floor is still high and low. The real order atmosphere on the floor is poor, and the focus is slightly downward. From the downstream, it has been in a long-term downturn, with insufficient procurement follow-up, while MIBK holders are under great pressure to ship goods, with obvious intention to make profits, and the frequent supply of low-cost goods drives down the market.

The business community expects the MIBK market to be weak in the near future, and pays attention to the trading situation on the floor.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 19th, the average nickel market price was now quoted at 175116.67 yuan / ton, up 5.13% from the previous trading day and 21.86% year-on-year.

Recently, spot nickel rebounded at a low level. The main reason for the rebound is that last week’s data showed that the U.S. economy may not enter recession soon. In addition, Fed officials still cooled their expectations of raising interest rates under the condition of good data. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil led to a general rise in bulk commodities, with Lun nickel closing up 3.60% overnight. In terms of supply and demand, the inventory of LUNI nickel continued to fall last week. Since the end of May, the inventory has declined, with the latest inventory level of 62.532 tons, constantly refreshing the low level for many years. Although domestic production and overseas influx of goods have increased, the cost of ferronickel plant is high and the price is strong. The downstream stainless steel inventory has fallen back to the normal range in recent years, indicating that demand has picked up. In terms of production, affected by early losses, domestic stainless steel production fell month on month.

Forecast: the macro will drive the nickel price to rise, but the fundamentals are general. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

In terms of cost, crude oil rebounded last Friday, and pure benzene in the outer market fell slightly. After the decline of pure benzene, the downstream demand followed up, and the spot price rebounded slightly. Today, the price of pure benzene in China is 8600-9150 yuan / ton.

The weakness of pure benzene drives the cautious attitude of aniline Market, and some enterprises cut prices to promote shipment. Today, the price in Shandong is 11500-11730 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in East China is 11800-12500 yuan / ton.