Spot price: this week (7.9-7.15)), the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a unilateral downward trend. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 8276 yuan / ton on July 15, down 2.93% from last week and up 14.71% from the same period last year.

Futures market: this week, the main force of short fiber futures showed a downward trend. The main contract of staple fiber pf futures closed at 6754 on Friday, down 12.01% from the closing price of last week. The settlement price is 6808 yuan. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell 15.30% to close at 5224, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell 6.64% to close at 4177.

Influencing factors: 1 Worries that the global economic recession may curb fuel demand and the rebound of the epidemic, coupled with the impact of the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate, extended the decline in international crude oil prices this week. This week, USOC fell by more than 8% and closed above $96 a barrel on Friday (as of 17:05 Beijing time). 2. PTA prices fell sharply this week, dragged down by the sharp decline in upstream crude oil and PX, as well as the decline in downstream polyester production and pessimistic demand. 3. Under the continuous loss of ethylene glycol this week, the maintenance plan increased, the commencement fell, and the supply and demand pattern is expected to ease. Although the price of ethylene glycol is lower driven by the cost, the disk surface is stronger than PTA and staple fiber. 4. Dragged down by the sluggish demand and the sharp decline in costs, the main force of short fiber futures continued to fluctuate and fall from the highest level of 9168 on June 10. This week, it broke down again, and short fiber spot also significantly retook its previous increase. However, at present, spot delivery is still tight, and the trend of spot is stronger than that of futures.

Future forecast: under the expectation of global economic recession, the short-term oil price may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. There may be replenishment demand in the downstream after the continuous decline of prices. Polyester staple fiber is expected to be weak and stable in the short term. Pay attention to the price of raw materials, downstream demand, epidemic situation, etc.

According to the data of business agency, the chloroform market fell slightly in the first ten days of July. As of July 10, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 2887 yuan / ton, down 3.75% from 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since July, the start-up of domestic methane chloride plants has increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the supply is still under great pressure. However, due to the high temperature weather, the refrigerant just needs to be used, which has a certain support for chloroform.

In the first ten days of July, the spot price of methanol fell slightly, and the cost side weakened. According to the business agency, as of July 10, the spot market price of methanol was 2466 yuan / ton, down 2.12% from 2520 yuan / ton on July 1.

The refrigerant at the downstream of chloroform starts to operate at a low level, but it still needs to be supported by the high temperature weather, and it also has a certain support for chloroform.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business agency believe that domestic supply pressure is still on; However, the demand for refrigerant is supported by the arrival of high temperature weather, and chloroform is expected to be basically stable in the later stage.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on July 13 was 8351 yuan / ton, down 1.28% from the previous trading day and up 16.06% year-on-year. The main contract of domestic staple fiber futures closed at 7080 in the morning, down 5.45% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the settlement price today was 7136. The main futures of staple fiber raw materials closed down today, with PTA main falling by 7.01% and ethylene glycol main falling by 1.36%.

On Tuesday (July 12), international oil prices plummeted to the lowest level since April 12, with both the United States and Burundi falling below $100. US oil fell 7.92% to US $95.84 / barrel. The sharp decline in costs, coupled with the arrival of the traditional off-season, the weak demand for textile terminals, and the continuous sharp decline in the staple fiber (polyester) industrial chain. Recently, many PTA units have been restarted, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand is insufficient. The follow-up needs to see the “golden nine silver ten” orders. The weak supply and demand of ethylene glycol led to the decline of construction, the increase of maintenance plans, and the future supply and demand pattern may be expected to ease. Under the drag of sluggish demand and sharp decline in costs, the main force of staple fiber futures continued to fluctuate and decline from the highest level of 9168 on June 10. In the past two days, it broke down again, with a cumulative decline of more than 22%. Polyester staple fiber spot also significantly retook its previous increase. However, at present, spot delivery is still tight, and the trend of staple fiber spot is stronger than that of futures.

After the continuous decline in prices, there may be replenishment demand in the downstream, and it is expected that polyester staple fiber will stabilize after a short-term weak shock.

On July 12, the rare earth index was 810 points, down 14 points from yesterday, down 19.56% from 1007 points (2022-02-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 198.89% from 271 points, the lowest point on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index fell, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series fell, the price of metal praseodymium and neodymium fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 1.07 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell by 17500 yuan / ton to 87000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide fell by 10000 yuan / ton to 932500 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 1.145 million yuan / ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide fell by 22500 yuan / ton to 925000 yuan / ton, The price of metal praseodymium fell by 15000 yuan / ton to 1.215 million yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide fell by 100000 yuan / ton to 13.65 million yuan / ton, the price of metal terbium fell by 17.55 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide fell by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.39 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium fell by 20000 yuan / ton to 3.16 million yuan / ton, the domestic light rare earth market price fell slightly, the recent procurement was general, the price trend of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market fell, and the price of terbium fell, Downstream purchases are mainly on demand, and Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will continue to decline in the later period.

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business agency, on the 11th, the average nickel market price is now 183516.67 yuan / ton, up 2.77% from the previous trading day and 32.58% year-on-year.

On Friday, the U.S. non farm data significantly exceeded expectations. Although this strengthened the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates by 75 basis points, the fear of economic recession was slightly weakened, and LUNI closed up 1.87% against the market trend the following week. The development momentum of new energy vehicles is booming, and the output of nickel mines at home and abroad has increased, while low inventories support nickel prices. In terms of fundamentals, the pressure on raw materials remains, the prices of nickel ore and ferronickel continue to fall, and the supply is expected to shrink slightly under the loss of iron mills. In terms of downstream stainless steel, steel mills have continued to reduce production, social inventories have fallen, and merchants have continued to support prices, which has slightly stabilized the price of stainless steel. However, at present, the terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the price support of stainless steel is weak.

Forecast: in general, although there is still pressure in the industrial chain, nickel will be supported by a certain macro level and bottom in the short term, and the price may stop falling and stabilize.