1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China was 10770 yuan / ton on July 4, and 10100 yuan / ton on July 8. The price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid in China fell 6.22% this week.

According to the bulk data list of business agency, the average ex factory price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China was 10666 yuan / ton on July 4, and 10433 yuan / ton on July 8. The price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid in China fell by 2.19% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell sharply this week, and the cost support was insufficient. This week, the demand in the phosphoric acid field was weak, the transaction was poor, and the manufacturers reduced their prices one after another. The market is dominated by bad news, and the weak market will continue in the short term. As of July 8, the price of 85 thermal phosphoric acid was about 10100 yuan / ton, and the price of 85 wet process phosphoric acid was about 10433 yuan / ton. The quotation of phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 9700-10650 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 9200-11200 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 10300 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 10600 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic market for raw phosphorus ore continued to operate at a high level and strong. The supply of phosphate rock in the quarry continues to be tight, and the shortage of medium and high-grade phosphate ore is still the same. The circulating supply of phosphate rock in the mine is limited. Many large factories mainly use phosphate rock for their own use, and there is no saleable supply externally. Some mines in Guangxi and Guizhou mainly receive orders in advance, and mining enterprises in Hebei mainly supply shareholders. The market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 930-980 yuan / ton.

The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, there are more inquiries in the yellow phosphorus market, but there are few transactions, and more purchases are made at lower prices. Some manufacturers will not make external quotations for the time being. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 33500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 34500-35000 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts at business news agency believed that cost support was weakened due to the price reduction of raw material yellow phosphorus again. The follow-up of terminal demand is weak, and the phosphoric acid market continues to operate weakly. It is expected that the market trend of phosphoric acid will continue to run downward in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly on the 7th, with the spot price of 58201.67 yuan / ton, down 0.4% from the previous day, down 16.77% from the beginning of the year, and down 15.09% year-on-year.

Recently, copper prices have been falling continuously. On the 6th, the dollar soared to a 20-year high, and pessimism broke out. The CNN fear greed index was only 21, and the market was in a state of extreme panic. The manufacturing PMI of Europe and the United States in June has been released, recording 53 and 52.1 respectively, both lower than that of May. New orders in the United States fell below the boom and bust line for the first time since May 2020, only 49.2. Copper fundamentals have not changed much, the focus of domestic supply is expected to rise, and smelting enthusiasm is still high; The recovery intensity of domestic consumption is weak, and downstream procurement has not improved due to the sharp decline in prices, although the current domestic inventory is still low. Copper prices are expected to remain weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride declined. As of the 6th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8550 yuan / ton. The on-site spot supply was sufficient, and the marketing situation was general.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly, and the delivery situation in the phthalic anhydride market was general. Recently, the downstream demand changed little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene fell sharply, the plasticizer market fell sharply, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market was normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was affected by the downstream, and the price trend fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price trend is mainly falling. The downstream plasticizer industry market is declining, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of the adjacent method source negotiation in East China is 8300-8500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 8200-8300 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8400-8600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. The recent decline in the market of phthalic anhydride is expected to continue to decline in the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period.

This week, the domestic methanol market was depressed and sorted out, and the mainland transactions were heavy again, while the coastal market performed generally. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, from June 24 to July 1, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2655 yuan / ton to 2620 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.32% in the cycle, a rise of 0.10% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 2.54%.

As of the close on July 1, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were weak and volatile. Ma2209 contract opened at 2636 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2640 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2533 yuan / ton. It closed at 2553 yuan / ton at the end of the trading day, down 83 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract positions were 1121100 hands, an increase of 104500 hands from the previous trading day.

As of 7.1, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation at present

Shanxi region, The mainstream ranges from 2410-2470 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2680 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, The mainstream negotiation is 2570-2650 yuan / ton

Two lakes region, Mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference, about 2590-2650 yuan / ton

Anhui region, The mainstream negotiation is about 2620-2680 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 2600 yuan / ton

The profit performance of methanol industrial chain is acceptable. At the upstream end, the high price of coal fell, and the price of methanol was slightly stuck, making the loss of coal alcohol slightly narrowed; The price of natural gas remained stable, as the average price of methanol in Sichuan and Chongqing fell, resulting in the profit repatriation of gas alcohol. Downstream, the focus of overall commodity prices fell, and most products with improved profits fell less than raw materials, and vice versa.

 
In the external market, as of the close on July 1, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $372.00-373.00/t, down $2 / T. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 96.50-97.00 cents / gallon, down 1 cent / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 353.50-354.00 euros / ton, down 10 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 372.00-373.00 USD / ton, – 2 dollars / ton

Europe and America, The Gulf of the United States, 96.50-97.00 cents / gallon, – 1 cent / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam ., 353.50-354.00 euros / ton, – 10 euros / ton

The production cost of methanol may not change much, and the demand adjustment may be limited. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

On the 4th, the polyethylene spot market remained weak, and the price continued to decline. The ex factory price of petrochemical enterprises fell partially, mostly by 50-100 yuan / ton. Although the cost has brought a little support to the market, the demand is still weak, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the PE spot market will continue to be weak in the short term.