On August 17, the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on August 17, the aluminum fluoride market was weak and temporarily stable, and the aluminum fluoride price was weak and temporarily stable. As of August 17, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 10700 yuan / ton on August 16 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 2.28% compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 10950 yuan / ton on August 14 of the previous weekend.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been reduced in a weak way, the price of fluorite has risen in a fluctuating manner, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized in a weak way; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated and fell, the cryolite price rose, and the downstream demand was general. Overall, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is large, and the upward momentum still exists.

Future forecast

The cost tends to be stable and the demand drops. The pressure on aluminum fluoride to fall is large, and the upward momentum still exists. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market tends to be weak and stable.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, on the 16th, the domestic glycine price continued to fall, and the average market price of industrial grade glycine fell to 13333 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from the 15th. It is understood that the low-end price of glycine market is around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. Due to the restriction of domestic environmental protection policies, the industry started less than 50%. At the same time, the demand continued to be weak, and both the quantity and price of glycine fell. The mainstream price of glyphosate raw materials in the downstream is around 62000 tons / yuan. Similarly, due to environmental protection factors, the commencement of glyphosate is limited, the export market is relatively stable, the enterprise inventory is high, and the willingness to purchase glycine is not strong. Recently, the price of glycine has dropped significantly. Under the market atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, it is expected that the price of glycine will continue to fall in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 18th, the average price of nickel spot market was 181966.67 yuan / ton, down 2.77% from the previous trading day and up 22.84% year-on-year.

Under the pressure of the strength of the US dollar, the trend of LUNI nickel fell back and closed down 2.56% the following week. With the resurgence of the domestic epidemic, the market liquidity has weakened, the nickel supply has turned to a surplus pattern, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Friday’s data showed that the credit data of China, the world’s No. 1 metal consumer, in July was significantly revised back, and the decline of new bank loans exceeded expectations, and metal prices were under pressure. In addition, the strong exchange rate of the US dollar also exerts pressure on metal prices. It was rumored that the nickel will be collected and stored, but it is expected that the nickel collection and storage will be small and the impact will be small.

In terms of fundamentals, the current nickel industry chain is weak as a whole, and the supply side has poor profits due to excess supply. In August, the domestic ferronickel output is expected to continue to decline, the domestic pure nickel spot premium is slightly expanded, and the import profit is narrowed. On the demand side, it is preliminarily predicted that the output of 200 and 400 series stainless steel will continue to decline in August, and the output of 300 series stainless steel will rise slightly on a month on month basis, but it is still lower than that of the same period on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, the power restriction in East China in August may continue to affect the production of stainless steel.

Forecast: the nickel price is greatly affected by macro factors, and the fundamentals are weak as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.

This week, the domestic MIBK market is weak and downward, and the main focus of the mainstream market negotiation is small downward. The focus of market negotiation in East China has dropped to 10000 yuan / ton, and a few orders have fallen below 10000 yuan. The reference of market negotiation in South China is about 10100 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of cost, the acetone market continues to decline. Although the recent overhaul of the raw material end acetone plant has increased, and the social supply is expected to decrease, the sluggish terminal purchase has consumed the good supply side. The acetone negotiation in East China is 4600 yuan / T, and the short-term acetone still has a narrow downward trend.

The overall change of the downstream demand side is not large, and it has been in a state of insufficient buying for a long time. The large households have low intention to purchase inventory, and the small households just need small orders, so the carriers have to give up profits to ship. In addition, the market negotiation has been declining under the influence of the external environment.

Next week, the negative cost side is expected to increase again, and the raw material acetone is still expected to fall. Next week, the downstream digestion contract is still in the middle and first ten days of the month. The supply side of MIBK is normal, and the shipment pressure is still large. It is expected that the weak adjustment will be made next week, and the negotiation in East China will be about 9900-10000 yuan / ton.

On August 11, the rare earth index was 703 points, down 15 points from yesterday, down 30.19% from the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 159.41% from the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index has dropped sharply, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has dropped sharply, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium has dropped by 10000 yuan / ton to 905000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has dropped by 4500 yuan / ton to 750000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide has dropped by 12500 yuan / ton to 790000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium has dropped by 30000 yuan / ton to 985000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium has dropped by 30000 yuan / ton to 1065000 yuan / ton, The price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 20000 yuan / ton to 785000 yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide decreased by 50000 yuan / ton to 13.7 million yuan / ton, the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.27 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium decreased by 35000 yuan / ton to 3.02 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium iron alloy decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 2.27 million yuan / ton, the price of domestic light rare earth market declined, the traders were generally active, and the metal factories were cautious, Just to be followed up, the price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, and the price of terbium series is slightly lower. The downstream purchase is mainly based on demand, and the export of Myanmar is prohibited. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will continue to decline in the later period.