This week (August 15-19), the price of domestic liquid ammonia fell at the beginning of the week. From the middle of the week to the end of the week, the market was mainly stable. The prices of Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and Hubei declined compared with the previous weekend, but the range was not large, mostly in the range of 100-200 yuan. The market supply is tight, but the demand for fertilizer in the downstream is still sluggish. The psychology of buying up but not buying down leads to unsatisfactory transaction. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 19, the weekly drop of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 1.23%, and the mainstream quotation range at the weekend was 3400-3700 yuan / ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China was slightly lower than that in the previous week, especially in the southwest and Inner Mongolia. In addition, the electricity restriction in Anhui also affected part of the supply, and the market supply decreased due to the maintenance of manufacturers in Shandong and Hebei. Under the condition of very weak demand, the continuous contraction of supply is the main reason for the price bottoming and stabilizing.

Cost side

Upstream coal prices fluctuated, rising by 1.02% this week, but prices remained high. The profit of downstream liquid ammonia is constantly squeezed. However, the coal price regulated by the state is still within a reasonable range. The downstream cost pressure is not great. At present, the profit of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers is still within a reasonable range. Natural gas prices also fell this week, easing the cost pressure of gas head enterprises. According to the monitoring of business agency, the decline of liquefied natural gas this week was 2.98%.

Demand side

From the terminal point of view, the downstream demand for liquid ammonia is stable and there is no increase. The price of urea rose slightly, only 0.17%. Other products such as ammonium nitrate (- 4.11%) and ammonium chloride (- 5.37%) showed weak performance, with a significant decline. From the perspective of demand, agricultural demand is tepid and industrial demand is mainly. In particular, affected by the power limitation in Sichuan, the operating rate of manufacturers has dropped significantly, and urea plants have been shut down one after another, and the demand has dropped to the freezing point. Superimposed on the high price rise of coal in the upstream, liquid ammonia can be said to be under attack.

From the above figure, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since the decline of urea is more obvious than that of liquid ammonia, the price difference between them is significantly narrowed.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, it can be seen that the profit of the liquid ammonia industry chain continues to narrow, and the natural gas price in the upstream of the gas head has been falling, but the coal price is high. Although the price is still controlled by the policy, the middle and lower reaches still show general cost pressure. Due to the weakening of seasonal demand, the decline of compound fertilizer in the middle and lower reaches is obvious, and the profit of the enterprise meets the test. The profit of liquid ammonia, urea and compound fertilizer is significantly lower than that in the previous period.

Future forecast

The Business Association believes that at present, the supply and demand of the domestic liquid ammonia Market are still uncertain in the near future, especially due to the power limitation in Southwest China. In the short term, it may face the trend of tight supply. In the later period, it is necessary to continue to observe the operation of the manufacturers. The supply side is mainly good in the short term, but the demand side is not optimistic. On the one hand, the agricultural demand continues to be weak. In addition, the industrial demand also remains strong, and the impact of the epidemic is superimposed. It is expected that the short-term rigidity of liquid ammonia is strong, but the possibility of a large rebound is low.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate market fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 18, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5100 yuan / ton, up or down by – 4.67% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the domestic potash market momentum continued to decline. The operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises continued to decline, and the overall operating rate has dropped to nearly 20%. The downstream consumption is not good, and the potassium sulfate enterprise has a low load but a high inventory position, which makes it difficult for the supply side to support the spot. The previous export policy continued, and export sales were affected to a certain extent, which also increased the supply pressure on the floor. The upstream potassium chloride continued to decline this week. Border trade and port cargo volume continued to be high, imported and domestic goods filled domestic inventory at the same time, and downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate purchased generally. The competition in the field was strengthened, and the price had been reduced to the cost price. Potassium chloride has poor support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. This week, the market price of potassium sulfate fell, the profit situation of merchants was poor, the prices of many regions were inverted, and the news of new orders was rare.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of the Business Association believes that the domestic potassium sulfate Market has fallen this week, and the potassium chloride market has fallen. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened. The supply side is low but the follow-up situation on the demand side is poor. In addition, there are more goods in the market. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.

On August 17, the price of aluminum fluoride was weak and temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on August 17, the aluminum fluoride market was weak and temporarily stable, and the aluminum fluoride price was weak and temporarily stable. As of August 17, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10700 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 10700 yuan / ton on August 16 of the previous trading day, and decreased by 2.28% compared with the price of aluminum fluoride of 10950 yuan / ton on August 14 of the previous weekend.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been reduced in a weak way, the price of fluorite has risen in a fluctuating manner, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has stabilized in a weak way; The downstream electrolytic aluminum price fluctuated and fell, the cryolite price rose, and the downstream demand was general. Overall, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is large, and the upward momentum still exists.

Future forecast

The cost tends to be stable and the demand drops. The pressure on aluminum fluoride to fall is large, and the upward momentum still exists. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market tends to be weak and stable.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, on the 16th, the domestic glycine price continued to fall, and the average market price of industrial grade glycine fell to 13333 yuan / ton, down 3.61% from the 15th. It is understood that the low-end price of glycine market is around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. Due to the restriction of domestic environmental protection policies, the industry started less than 50%. At the same time, the demand continued to be weak, and both the quantity and price of glycine fell. The mainstream price of glyphosate raw materials in the downstream is around 62000 tons / yuan. Similarly, due to environmental protection factors, the commencement of glyphosate is limited, the export market is relatively stable, the enterprise inventory is high, and the willingness to purchase glycine is not strong. Recently, the price of glycine has dropped significantly. Under the market atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, it is expected that the price of glycine will continue to fall in a narrow range in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business agency, on the 18th, the average price of nickel spot market was 181966.67 yuan / ton, down 2.77% from the previous trading day and up 22.84% year-on-year.

Under the pressure of the strength of the US dollar, the trend of LUNI nickel fell back and closed down 2.56% the following week. With the resurgence of the domestic epidemic, the market liquidity has weakened, the nickel supply has turned to a surplus pattern, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Friday’s data showed that the credit data of China, the world’s No. 1 metal consumer, in July was significantly revised back, and the decline of new bank loans exceeded expectations, and metal prices were under pressure. In addition, the strong exchange rate of the US dollar also exerts pressure on metal prices. It was rumored that the nickel will be collected and stored, but it is expected that the nickel collection and storage will be small and the impact will be small.

In terms of fundamentals, the current nickel industry chain is weak as a whole, and the supply side has poor profits due to excess supply. In August, the domestic ferronickel output is expected to continue to decline, the domestic pure nickel spot premium is slightly expanded, and the import profit is narrowed. On the demand side, it is preliminarily predicted that the output of 200 and 400 series stainless steel will continue to decline in August, and the output of 300 series stainless steel will rise slightly on a month on month basis, but it is still lower than that of the same period on a year-on-year basis. Moreover, the power restriction in East China in August may continue to affect the production of stainless steel.

Forecast: the nickel price is greatly affected by macro factors, and the fundamentals are weak as a whole. It is expected that the nickel price will continue to fluctuate in a wide range in the short term.