1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, aniline was stable and small this week. On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 12500 yuan / ton; On June 24, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12300-12500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.21% over last week and an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

On the cost side, pure benzene: crude oil weakened, pure benzene in the external market continued to decline, and the support of external news was weak. Domestic pure benzene port inventory continues to increase and supply increases. However, the downstream products suffered a loss in profits, and some units shut down with reduced economy, weakening demand. This week, pure benzene continued to decline, the price difference between SINOPEC pure benzene and local refining enterprises widened, and the prices of Sinopec plants in Shandong and Hebei fell significantly affected by the northern market. On Friday (June 24), the price of pure benzene was 9200-9800 yuan / ton (the average price was 9559 yuan / ton), which was 3.29% lower than that of last week and 20.84% higher than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: the price of domestic nitric acid rose this week. On June 17, the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2883.33 yuan / ton, and on June 24, the price was 2933.33 yuan / ton, up 1.73% from last week and 26.62% from the same period last year.

The price of pure benzene fell, but the cost side support remained, and aniline rose along with the cost side. The delivery of aniline from the factory is acceptable and the price is firm.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

In terms of cost and pure benzene, there is still a possibility of decline in the external market. The domestic supply of pure benzene increases, the downstream demand weakens, and the pure benzene market sentiment is empty, so there is still a possibility of decline.

In terms of nitric acid, the delivery of nitric acid is acceptable, and the enterprise has no inventory pressure. It is expected that the price of nitric acid will tend to be strong.

The downstream is about to enter the off-season, the demand has weakened, and aniline inventory has accumulated. However, the short-term cost support still exists, and the trend of aniline is expected to be stable temporarily. Pay attention to the trend of raw materials, downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 22, the MTBE price in Shandong was 8525 yuan / ton, up 13.10% month on month and 33.55% year on year. The spot supply is abundant, and the sales of merchants are slow. At the same time, the downstream demand is flat, and the market sales pressure remains. The short-term domestic MTBE market may fall.

On June 22, the mainstream quotation range of 1\tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 234000-237000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 235500 yuan / ton, down 9250 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

In terms of fundamentals, on the evening of the 13th, Tin Industry Co., Ltd. announced that it would carry out shutdown and overhaul for about 50 days on the 16th, which is expected to affect a large domestic production. However, the good news has been basically digested because the market has released the news of shutdown in the early stage. In terms of inventory, LME inventory rose to the highest level of 3345 tons in half a year, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to a new high of 4022 tons in one year, which is a bad market mentality. In the downstream, the overall demand performance is average, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of both supply and demand.

On June 21, the quotation range of 1# lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 15000-15100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Recently, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season, the finished product inventory of the enterprise is still high, and the demand for lead ingot procurement is weak. In terms of primary lead, there have been a lot of off-season maintenance by manufacturers recently, and the overall operating rate of the smelter is low due to the tight supply at the mine end. The overall performance is weak in both supply and demand. In the off-season, the lead ingot market demand is weak. The recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range fluctuation trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic butadiene production enterprises was 11290 yuan / ton on June 20, up 11.55% month on month and 32.32% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 10750 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 11000 yuan / ton. Although the performance of downstream demand and peripheral information was weak, the short-term market was boosted by the impact of sudden news on the supply side.