1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell from the high of 10000 yuan. On June 10, the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (the average price was 9984 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 17), the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9851 yuan / ton). The average price was 1.34% lower than last week and 27.1% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil and pure benzene in the outer disk fell broadly, and the external information guidance weakened. The centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene enterprises is coming to an end, and Jiujiang Petrochemical’s new pure benzene capacity is put into operation; East China port inventory showed signs of warming, and the supply side increased. Downstream styrene and other products lost profits. Under the pressure of cost, some units were shut down and reduced in demand. Multiple negative drag, pure benzene fell this week.

This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, the Asian pure benzene in the external trading fell broadly this week. On Thursday (June 16), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1344 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $108 / ton, or 7.44%; The reference import price in East China was $1340 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $105 / ton, or 7.27%.

In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising slightly this week. The price was 11100 yuan / ton on June 10 and 10900 yuan / ton on June 17, down 1.8% from last week and up 23.16% from the same period last year. The crude oil price was corrected, the cost support was weak, the prices of pure benzene and ethylene fell simultaneously, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene market was generally traded, and the spot price fell slightly.

Aniline: the price of aniline this week is stable and small. On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 29.23% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil, the expectation of tight supply and demand growth have given support to the oil price, and the short-term price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market callback, but the styrene market supply is relatively sufficient, and some styrene maintenance units may start in the second half of June. Styrene costs and pressures coexist.

Supply increases, demand weakens, and pure benzene is expected to fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, on June 16, the MTBE price in Shandong was 8825 yuan / ton, up 19.86% month on month and 40.60% year on year. The general market trend has stabilized, with only minor adjustments in some regions. The crude oil fell sharply, the market mentality was bad, and the downstream demand became weak. The sales of merchants were average

It can be seen from the trend chart that the market price trend of paraxylene is temporarily stable. The domestic price of paraxylene is 10600 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, and the domestic supply of paraxylene is general. In addition, the operation of overseas units is relatively normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene remains high affected by the crude oil price. Recently, the price of PX outside the market fell slightly. On the 14th, the closing price in Asia was $1320-1322 / T FOB Korea and $1338-1340 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has remained low. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene devices in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is normal. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business club, believes that the current short-term crude oil price is still supported, and the downstream PTA and textile industry are improving, It is expected that the market price of p-xylene will remain high in the later period.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (June 14):7600 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the cryolite market continues to be stable today, and the average production price in Henan is flat compared with the previous working day. The upstream raw materials are tight, the cost pressure of the enterprise is high, the cryolite device in the site continues to operate at low load, the manufacturer’s inventory is low, the market supply is tight, the downstream demand follows up smoothly, the enterprise ships smoothly, the enterprise quotation this week continues to last week’s price, and the operator’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see.

Aftermarket forecast: the short-term cryolite market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see operation, paying attention to the market supply.

According to the monitoring of the business club, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rose. As of the 13th, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8650 yuan / ton. The spot supply in the market was normal, and the sales were OK.

The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride is rising, and the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the market is general. Recently, the downstream demand has not changed much, the upstream adjacent benzene price has risen sharply, the plasticizer market is temporarily stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is higher due to the support of raw materials. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has not changed much. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the market is less than 60%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market price is mainly higher. The downstream plasticizer industry market is maintained, and the actual transaction is normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China has risen, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. In East China, the mainstream of the adjacent method source negotiation is 8600-8800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of the naphthalene method source negotiation is 8400-8500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8600-8700 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Recently, the adjacent benzene market has risen sharply, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.