1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In May, the domestic LNG market price fell by 8.24% during the month, and the focus shifted downward. After the festival, the logistics recovered, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream, coupled with the maintenance of liquid plants in some regions, the favorable supply and demand pushed the liquid prices in many places in China to rise slightly, but the prices stopped rising and turned down on May 9. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. By the end of the month, Inner Mongolia was 6520-6820 yuan / ton, Shaanxi 6580-6790 yuan / ton, Shanxi 6700-7000 yuan / ton, Ningxia 6600-6700 yuan / ton, Hebei 6830-7100 yuan / ton and Henan 6950-7200 yuan / ton. The terminal price is about 7300-8900 yuan / ton. The spot CIF price of LNG in China was USD 23.77/million British thermal power, and the price was lowered.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from March 7, 2022 to May 29, 2022, the domestic liquefied natural gas showed mixed gains and losses in the cycle, with the largest increase of 3.68% in the week of March 7 and the largest decrease of -4.3% in the week of May 9.

Methanol: on May 30, the reference price of methanol was 2625.00, a decrease of 4.37% compared with May 1 (2745.00). The raw coal price and oil price were strong. The downstream Tianjin Bohai Chemical MTO is expected to be put into operation. At present, the supply side is relatively abundant. Under the current situation, the supply and demand game, predicted by fantinglu, methanol analyst of the business club, is dominated by the short-term domestic methanol market or shock consolidation.

On May 30, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 5323.33, an increase of 5.07% compared with that on May 1 (5066.67). Recently, the supply of liquid ammonia may have improved. Some units in Shandong have recovered, and some may bring about supply increment. On the demand side, the demand for chemical fertilizer is weakened, the downstream procurement may slow down, and on the cost side, coal is still affected by the regulatory policies, and the price remains stable. Overall, liquid ammonia may have high callback risk.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the business agency, the demand was affected by the off-season of the market in May. In addition, the feed gas price was lowered, and the cost support was further reduced. As the Dragon Boat Festival was approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it was expected that the domestic LNG price would continue to decline.

The raw material cost continued to support, and the ammonium chloride market continued to rise in May. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of ammonium chloride was around 1445 yuan / ton at the beginning of May, and 1527 yuan / ton at the end of May, an increase of 5.71%.

In May, the price of raw liquid ammonia rose slightly, and the cost continued to support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 5306 yuan / ton, up 4.74% from 5066 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In May, the price of urea continued to rise, which continued to support ammonium chloride. As of May 31, the domestic urea price was 3201 yuan / ton, up 5.09% from 3046 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

Although the demand has gradually entered the off-season, on the one hand, the high raw material prices and strong cost support; On the other hand, less than 80% of the combined caustic soda industry has been started. In addition, the low load of enterprises in some areas is tight, and June and July are the traditional maintenance seasons. The supply side is expected to continue to reduce. The current situation and expectation of tight supply promote the ammonium chloride market to continue to rise at a high level in May.

Aftermarket forecast: the ammonium chloride analysts of the business society believe that the current cost and supply support of ammonium chloride will continue; On the other hand, spring ploughing has been gradually completed. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will fluctuate at a high level in June.

On June 2, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap between manufacturers’ quotations. The mainstream price in the on-site negotiation was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the price quotation in Hebei was 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market remained high, and the price trend of nitric acid rose. The rising price of raw materials has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market, but the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the on-site supply of goods has been normal recently, The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable, and it is expected that the price may rise slightly in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some domestic regions are as follows:

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei region, 5200-5300., 0

Henan region, 4500-4600., 0

Shaanxi region, 5000-5200., 0

Yunnan region, 2900-3100., 0

On June 1, the price of aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable

According to the data of business agency, on June 1, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 11200 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the previous trading day; The price of aluminum fluoride increased by 2.28% compared with 10950 yuan / ton on May 1. The recent aluminum fluoride market has stabilized.

Key points of analysis

Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has been adjusted strongly, the price of fluorite has risen violently, the cost of aluminum fluoride has risen strongly, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased; The high price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream has stabilized, the price of cryolite has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand in the downstream has recovered. The overall downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand for rising costs is stable, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride is still strong. In the future, the aluminum fluoride market will undergo strong shock adjustment.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on May 31 was 121.22, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.02% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 43.76% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of the business society, the mainstream market of China’s polyaluminum chloride market fell in May, and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride decreased from 2302.5 yuan / ton on the 1st to 2242.5 yuan on the 31st About RMB / ton, with a monthly decrease of 2.61%. In this month, the production of enterprises in the main domestic production areas was normal, and the market inventory was sufficient; The downstream demand continues to be average, and some parts are gradually weakened by the impact of transportation capacity and cost. The pressure on enterprises to ship goods is large, and the transaction is not easy.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: the monitoring data of the business society showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose in May. The quotation first fell from 325.00 yuan / ton on May 1 to 300.00 yuan / ton on May 7, a decrease of 7.69%, and then rose to 320.00 yuan / ton on May 30, an increase of 6.67%, an increase of 41.17% over the same period last year. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general; From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market fluctuates with each other, and the downstream is generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may rise slightly.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 31 was 6614 yuan / ton, down 8.24% from the price of 7208 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 84.06% compared with the same period last year. After the May Day holiday, the logistics recovered, and there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream. In addition, the good supply and demand of liquid plants in some regions promoted the slight increase of liquid prices in many places in China. However, since May 9, prices have stopped rising and turned down. At present, the demand in the off-season is weak, the receiving capacity of downstream users is general, in addition, the inlet gas price is lowered, the feed gas price is lowered, and the negative factors are dominant. The domestic liquid price is falling frequently, and the market continues to be weak. In May, the off-season of the market affected the demand. In addition, the price of feed gas was lowered, and the cost support further declined. As the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, considering the poor logistics during the holiday and the reduction of prices by liquid plants, it is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to decline.

Future forecast: in the near future, the policy is mainly to stabilize the economy, the water treatment enterprises are operating normally, the market inventory is sufficient, the demand driven change is not large, and the circulation is blocked and the transaction is weak under the influence of public health events this month; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid goes down first and then up, and the cost support is becoming stronger; Fuel costs continued to fall. Therefore, it is expected that under the current economic and industrial background, the future polyaluminum chloride market is likely to be stable and weak with small fluctuations.