In April 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market slightly increased at the end of the month, with the average market price in the East China region reaching 81875 yuan/ton on the 1st and 82125 yuan/ton on the 26th, an increase of 0.31%.

On April 24th, the antimony commodity index was 113.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 6.16% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 142.61% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously. After December, prices continued to recover, and in mid to late March, they remained stable after three consecutive weeks of decline.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market continued to slightly lower in April, with a quotation of $12050/ton as of the 26th, and a cumulative monthly decrease of $100/ton.

In terms of the industrial chain, this week’s antimony oxide market followed the overall trend of antimony ingots and remained stable, with slightly light market trading and overall weak downstream demand.

In April, most of the domestic antimony ingot market remained temporarily stable, with prices rising narrowly towards the end of the month. As of now, the antimony ingot market has remained temporarily stable for three consecutive weeks, with a monthly increase of only around 0.31%. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market changes this month have been limited, and the overall situation of tight supply and weak demand remains. After entering March, the operating rate of antimony smelting enterprises has slightly increased. Currently, enterprises are generally actively shipping, and the overall supply is still slightly tight. In terms of demand, downstream industries such as flame retardancy and photovoltaics, except for antimony oxide, still perform weakly, while exports also perform poorly. Under the drag of downstream demand, although supply is slightly tight, the market is still difficult to improve. In the future market, there is currently a strong wait-and-see mentality, and actual transactions are slightly light. Due to a lack of demand support, it is expected that the overall stability and weak operation in the future market will be the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose slightly this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week rose from 7700.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7716.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.22%. Weekend prices decreased by 46.90% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 23, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.17, an increase of 0.08 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 62.90% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 30.05% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream raw material market for isobutyraldehyde saw a slight decline in the propylene market this week, with prices dropping from 7390.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7070.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 4.33%. Weekend prices have decreased by 16.04% compared to the same period last year. The price of upstream raw material market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly, from 10600.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, down 1.89%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late April may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has fluctuated and declined this week, with overall adjustments made to various wire drawing brands. As of April 21st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7735.71 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.15% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, the propylene market in Shandong fell significantly this week, with the decline concentrated in the second half of the week, with daily declines reaching 150 yuan/ton. In April, the propylene market continued to rise, and downstream resistance to high prices intensified. The wait-and-see atmosphere was strong, coupled with the weakening of international oil prices, which further dragged down the market situation. Propylene companies took advantage of the situation to sell their products. The industry has high expectations for a decline in the future, and in the atmosphere of buying up rather than buying down, it is expected that the short-term trend of propylene will continue to decline weakly.

The decline in propylene prices has weakened the cost support for PP. In terms of industry load, in mid April, the operating situation of PP enterprises decreased narrowly, and the overall industry load was below 75%. The impact of maintenance benefits slowed down, and overall shipments remained stable. There is sufficient supply of goods on site, with a slight decrease in inventory, but supply pressure still exists. In terms of demand, the operating rates of downstream plastic weaving and film materials enterprises are fluctuating, and the stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, with on-demand procurement being the main focus.

In terms of fiber materials, according to data monitored by Business Society, as of April 23, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has stabilized and operated. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7712 yuan/ton, with a 0% increase or decrease compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 13.02% decrease compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have continuously adjusted their load in a low and narrow range, with an overall operating rate of around 29%. The demand situation of terminal enterprises is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP are not good. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market continued to decline this week. As of April 23rd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Business Society is around 8375 yuan/ton, which is an increase or decrease of -2.62% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 18.69% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic health situation is stabilizing, and social consumption is becoming increasingly weak in driving medical meltblown fabric materials. The overseas demand has also not shown significant support, and traders are giving up profits and taking orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market may continue to operate in a weak trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been relatively weak this week. The raw material propylene market has declined, and the cost side’s support for the market has deteriorated. Terminal enterprises tend to maintain production on a demand basis, with weak demand release. On the market long short game, it is expected that the PP market may maintain a weak adjustment trend in the short term.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 19, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7466 yuan/ton. Compared with April 15 (reference price of n-butanol was 7533 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.88%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.15-4.19), the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China showed a slight decline. In early April, the overall market situation of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China experienced a weak decline. This week, the overall n-butanol market continued to decline slightly, and downstream demand continued to be weak. Overall transactions on the market were average, with some n-butanol factories reducing the price of n-butanol narrowly by around 100 yuan/ton. As of April 19, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7500 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, n-butanol is operating at a weak and low level in the n-butanol market, and there is a certain wait-and-see sentiment in the market. With the May Day holiday approaching and the downstream may usher in phased stocking, the risk of the n-butanol market continuing to decline is limited. The n-butanol data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic Shandong region’s n-butanol market is expected to remain stable and consolidate, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17th, the DOP price was 9917.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33% compared to April 10th, when the DOP price was 9950 yuan/ton. Plasticizer manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply in the plasticizer market. Downstream procurement is in urgent need, and customer procurement enthusiasm is average. The market transaction atmosphere is cold, and the DOP market is weak and consolidating this week.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8562.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% compared to the price of 8625 yuan/ton on April 10th. The price of ortho benzene has stabilized, the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, and the support for upward growth has weakened. Downstream demand is poor, and the market for phthalic anhydride has remained stagnant this week. In the future, the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride prices has weakened, and downward pressure still exists.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the price of isooctanol was 9114.29 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 1.24% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 10, which was 9228.57 yuan/ton. This week, the production of isooctanol enterprises was at a low level, and the supply of isooctanol is expected to decrease. Demand side plasticizer enterprises have temporarily stabilized their production, and the weak and volatile consolidation of isooctanol will be the main trend in the future.

Downstream demand is weak

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 17, the price of PVC was 5994 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% compared to the PVC price of 6066.67 yuan/ton on April 10. The PVC spot market is relatively light, and the futures market has performed poorly. The overall market atmosphere is relatively empty, with insufficient confidence on the market. The inquiry atmosphere in the PVC spot market is weak, and the enthusiasm for buying goods is not good. PVC prices have fallen.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that this week, the prices of raw materials for plasticizer DOP, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, have fluctuated slightly, resulting in a decrease in DOP costs. The upward support for DOP is not supported by increased downward pressure. On the demand side, PVC prices are weak and declining, downstream demand is weak, and downstream enterprises of plasticizers have poor purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, cost support weakens and demand is weak, while the plasticizer market is mainly weak and consolidating.