1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 9): 23666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R134a fell on May 9, down 2.07% from the previous day and up 4.72% year-on-year. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable, the price of trichloroethylene has fallen sharply, the cost support has decreased sharply, and the market transaction is still flat, the logistics has not been fully restored, the enterprise mainly reduces the price and arranges the warehouse, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer. Up to now, the price of raw hydrofluoric acid is about 11720 yuan / ton. The market quotation of R134a is mostly in the range of 20000-26000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer.

R134a is expected to decline steadily in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 7, 2022, the market price reference of silicone DMC in mainstream areas is 26340 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 1, 2022 (the reference price of silicone DMC is 26940 yuan / ton), the price is reduced by 600 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.23%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that during the May Day holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market was temporarily stable, and the trading atmosphere was quiet. After the festival, Shandong organosilicon DMC large factory lowered the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 26000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 400 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. Most other factories remained stable with the quotation before the festival. However, the price reduction of large factories still injected a worrying atmosphere into the organosilicon DMC field. The bearish sentiment of the industry towards the future trend increased, and the downstream goods of organosilicon DMC were cautious and mostly wait-and-see. On the 6th, Shandong big factory lowered the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC to 25700 yuan / ton again. Then, other factories with high pre Festival offer also began to reduce the price of organosilicon DMC by 500-1000 yuan / ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the organosilicon DMC field narrowed. As of the 7th, the ex factory price of domestic organosilicon DMC was around 25700-27000 yuan / ton, with a decline of 2.23% in the week. At present, the downstream mainly prepares goods on demand. For the uncertainty of the future trend of raw materials, the on-site wait-and-see mood remains unabated.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, in May, the overall market situation of raw metal silicon 411# market was weak and fell. According to the monitoring data of business society, the reference price of metal silicon was 20600 yuan / ton on May 6, down 0.87% compared with May 1 (20780 yuan / ton).

Silicone DMC market outlook forecast

At present, after returning from the holiday, from the market atmosphere of continuous decline of raw materials and constant wait-and-see in the downstream, the upstream and downstream game of silicone DMC has appeared. The silicone DMC datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the willingness of raw materials to continue to transfer profits is not strong. More attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 6th, the average nickel market price was 222683.33 yuan / ton, down 3.2% from the previous trading day and up 68.25% year-on-year.

The appreciation of the US dollar and the strengthening of US bond yields put pressure on metals, and Lun nickel closed down 2.01% overnight. In the context of interest rate hikes, inflation is high, fears of economic recession are intensified, and metal demand is bleak. Although domestic nickel pig iron smelting activities have decreased significantly, global nickel smelting activities are still increasing as a whole. It shows that high prices stimulate the production of global nickel products, and the supply-demand relationship of price adjustment nickel city is playing a strong role, which is conducive to promoting the nickel price to fall back to the fundamentals. On the 5th, a magnitude 6 earthquake occurred in the Philippines, but it was far away from the main mining area, which did not affect the operation of nickel mines. The shipment of nickel mines in the Philippines decreased by 30% in April. Considering the impact of domestic anti epidemic on the entry of nickel mines, the supply of nickel mines decreased in April, which was good for the price of nickel. Nickel is expected to maintain a partial shock pattern in the short term.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 5): 4340 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the market situation of acetic acid is sorted upward. The average market price in East China is increased by 1.88% compared with the previous working day, the price of acetic acid in Shandong is increased by 100 yuan / ton, the quotation of acetic acid in holidays is slightly increased, the downstream demand is improved compared with the previous period, and the market trading atmosphere is mainly wait-and-see. Some manufacturers in the supplier market have maintenance plans for acetic acid devices, the mentality of operators is optimistic, and the quotation of enterprises is sorted up.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the market supply.

Zinc prices fell continuously this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market recovered slightly after falling continuously this week. As of April 29, the price of zinc was 27742 yuan / ton, down 2.64% from 28494 yuan / ton on April 22 last weekend. Since the domestic spot zinc price hit a record high of 28754 yuan / ton on April 20, the zinc price recovered slightly after falling for four consecutive trading days. This week, the zinc market stopped falling and rebounded, and the zinc market fluctuated and adjusted at a high level.

The epidemic disturbs the production and marketing of the automobile industry

According to the passenger car production and sales data released by the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume in March 2022 was 1.579 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% and a month on month increase of 23.6%; The output was 1.823 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% and a month on month increase of 22%. According to the survey data of the passenger Federation, the National Automobile wholesale volume decreased by 40% year-on-year in the first week of April. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen decreased by 84% year-on-year, and that of SAIC GM decreased by 98% year-on-year. As of April 23, the sales volume in April fell by 39% year-on-year. Automobile sales have fallen sharply, the market demand is weak, the demand for galvanized sheet is declining, the demand for zinc ingot is weak, and the rising space of zinc market is limited.

The auto industry chain will resume production one after another

In mid April, the curtain of resumption of work and production was gradually opened in Shanghai. On the 18th, SAIC Group and other automobile manufacturers started the pressure test of resumption of work and production. With the implementation of the white list of “resumption of work and production”, more automobile related enterprises and enterprises in other industries have also joined the army of resumption of work and production. Market demand is slowly picking up. However, in the resumption of work and production, enterprises still face a series of challenges. The recovery speed of demand is slow or difficult to meet expectations. The demand may still be in the recovery stage in May.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: after the zinc price hit a record high, it fell rapidly, the construction of downstream enterprises in the domestic zinc market fell, the production and sales volume of the automobile industry fell sharply, the demand of the zinc market was weak, the effect of resumption of work and production was not as expected, the room for zinc price rise was limited, and the high zinc price fell rapidly. With the advent of the May Day holiday, manufacturers prepared goods in advance, resumed work and production, continued to stimulate the recovery of downstream consumption, and the zinc price stopped falling and rising. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of zinc market will be weak for a long time in the future, the rising space of zinc price is limited after reaching a record high, the fear of zinc supply shortage is difficult to alleviate, and the falling space of zinc price is small. It is expected that the high shock adjustment of zinc price in the future.