According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 22, the MTBE price in Shandong was 8525 yuan / ton, up 13.10% month on month and 33.55% year on year. The spot supply is abundant, and the sales of merchants are slow. At the same time, the downstream demand is flat, and the market sales pressure remains. The short-term domestic MTBE market may fall.

On June 22, the mainstream quotation range of 1\tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 234000-237000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 235500 yuan / ton, down 9250 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

In terms of fundamentals, on the evening of the 13th, Tin Industry Co., Ltd. announced that it would carry out shutdown and overhaul for about 50 days on the 16th, which is expected to affect a large domestic production. However, the good news has been basically digested because the market has released the news of shutdown in the early stage. In terms of inventory, LME inventory rose to the highest level of 3345 tons in half a year, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to a new high of 4022 tons in one year, which is a bad market mentality. In the downstream, the overall demand performance is average, and the overall market performance is weak. Therefore, the trend of tin price is greatly affected by the futures market, and it is expected that the future market will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of both supply and demand.

On June 21, the quotation range of 1# lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market was about 15000-15100 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Recently, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season, the finished product inventory of the enterprise is still high, and the demand for lead ingot procurement is weak. In terms of primary lead, there have been a lot of off-season maintenance by manufacturers recently, and the overall operating rate of the smelter is low due to the tight supply at the mine end. The overall performance is weak in both supply and demand. In the off-season, the lead ingot market demand is weak. The recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range fluctuation trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic butadiene production enterprises was 11290 yuan / ton on June 20, up 11.55% month on month and 32.32% year on year. In terms of market price, the mainstream transaction price of butadiene in East China is 10750 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in central Shandong is 11000 yuan / ton. Although the performance of downstream demand and peripheral information was weak, the short-term market was boosted by the impact of sudden news on the supply side.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, pure benzene fell continuously this week, and the price fell from the high of 10000 yuan. On June 10, the price of pure benzene was 9900-10050 yuan / ton (the average price was 9984 yuan / ton). On Friday (June 17), the price of pure benzene was 9400-10000 yuan / ton (the average price was 9851 yuan / ton). The average price was 1.34% lower than last week and 27.1% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil and pure benzene in the outer disk fell broadly, and the external information guidance weakened. The centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene enterprises is coming to an end, and Jiujiang Petrochemical’s new pure benzene capacity is put into operation; East China port inventory showed signs of warming, and the supply side increased. Downstream styrene and other products lost profits. Under the pressure of cost, some units were shut down and reduced in demand. Multiple negative drag, pure benzene fell this week.

This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

In terms of external trading, the Asian pure benzene in the external trading fell broadly this week. On Thursday (June 16), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was $1344 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $108 / ton, or 7.44%; The reference import price in East China was $1340 / ton, a year-on-year decrease of $105 / ton, or 7.27%.

In terms of crude oil, the United States announced new sanctions against Iran. There is little hope that Iranian oil will return to the market. The expectation of tight global oil supply still exists. However, the expectation of interest rate hikes by many central banks around the world triggered concerns about economic recession. This week, international oil prices fell broadly. As of June 17, Brent fell by $8.89 / barrel, or 7.29%; WTI fell $11.11/barrel, or 9.21%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising slightly this week. The price was 11100 yuan / ton on June 10 and 10900 yuan / ton on June 17, down 1.8% from last week and up 23.16% from the same period last year. The crude oil price was corrected, the cost support was weak, the prices of pure benzene and ethylene fell simultaneously, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene market was generally traded, and the spot price fell slightly.

Aniline: the price of aniline this week is stable and small. On June 17, the price in Shandong was 11700-11930 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 12500 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week and increased by 29.23% compared with the same period last year.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In terms of crude oil, the long short game of crude oil, the expectation of tight supply and demand growth have given support to the oil price, and the short-term price is still high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, opec+ decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions, etc. on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: the international crude oil market callback, but the styrene market supply is relatively sufficient, and some styrene maintenance units may start in the second half of June. Styrene costs and pressures coexist.

Supply increases, demand weakens, and pure benzene is expected to fall. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external market price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.