According to the sample data monitored by business society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated in a narrow range from March 25 to April 1. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers was 7250 yuan / ton, and the price rose to 7300 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price increased by 0.69% during the week, 5.04% month on month and 4.66% year-on-year.

 

The rise in domestic ethanol prices slowed this week. The price of raw corn is still high, and the transportation in some areas is still poor, resulting in insufficient operating rate of ethanol manufacturers. The shutdown of individual factories in Henan, the main production area, led to a rise in prices at the beginning of the week, but the high price fell with the recovery of supply. The lower reaches have a mentality of resistance to high price goods, and most of them just need to purchase.

 

PVA

In terms of raw materials, the high price of raw corn and cassava is strong, but the high price of ethanol stabilizes, and the short-term cost pressure of corn / cassava ethanol increases slowly. Molasses will continue to rise in the short term, and molasses ethanol cost pressure will continue to increase.

 

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) – ethanol price trend of business society:

 

Downstream products, ethanol prices are hovering high. Baijiu factory takes into account the cost pressures and needs to purchase multiple dimensions. Downstream chemicals gradually accept high prices, but only maintain rigid demand.

 

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol ethyl acetate (downstream products) of business society:

 

As of April 1, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

 

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7400-7700 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol 7400-7700 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 8250-8300 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region Corn alcohol 7800 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region Rice / Cassava general ethanol 7600-7650 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol 8250 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Henan region Superior 7250-7300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 8100-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region General level 6750 yuan / ton

Hebei region anhydrous 7600 yuan / ton

Sichuan region Corn alcohol 7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 7200-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Shandong region General level 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 8000 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7500-7600 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Superior 7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu anhydrous 8100-8200 yuan / ton

Anhui region General level 7400-7500 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region anhydrous 8200-8300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Corn alcohol general grade 7350 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 6950-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Absolute ethanol 6850-7000 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 7050-7100 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Premium alcohol 7000-7200 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Absolute ethanol 8000-8200 yuan / ton, tax included

Transportation is limited, and the high price of raw corn restricts the commencement of corn ethanol. It is expected that there will be little short-term market supply. The ethanol analyst of business society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.

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On April 1, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market was 346500-348500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 347500 yuan / ton, down 2250 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

 

On Thursday night, the US dollar index closed higher and the metal market was under pressure. Lunxi closed down 0.63% and Shanghai tin closed down 0.52%. Today, Shanghai tin fell by more than 1%, and the spot market followed the decline. Basically, the current market supply is still tight, the market trading situation is general, the tin price is high, the downstream still maintains on-demand procurement, and the overall transaction situation is general. The upstream Myanmar tin concentrate import is relatively stable. At present, the domestic tin inventory is still low. The downstream solder enterprises are currently operating on a low level and have weak demand for tin. The tin market as a whole is still in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supported by low inventory, the tin price is stable, medium and strong.

PVA

Data monitoring shows that on March 31, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market was about 16128.57 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market continued to weaken this month.

 

Key point analysis: at present, manufacturers in the main production areas of Henan have sufficient product inventory. So far this year, public health events have a great impact on the economy, with weak downstream demand and general transaction. Under the control measures, the transportation capacity is tight, the cost has increased to a certain extent, and it is difficult to deliver goods in some areas. The price of upstream raw material acrylonitrile has continued to rise slightly recently, with an increase of 50 yuan / ton on the 29th and 100 yuan / ton on the 31st. At present, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market is about 11650 yuan / ton; The market price of raw acrylic acid fluctuated downward in recent two days. The market price of acrylic acid in East China on the 31st was 15366.67 yuan / ton, down 4.57% from 16033.33 on the 1st.

 

Future forecast: at present, the prevention and control of public health events in Shandong and Henan production areas are tense, and the delivery and transportation are affected to a certain extent. In addition to the transportation cost, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials increased slightly this week, and the spot inventory in the market is sufficient. Affected by weak downstream demand, polyacrylamide market is expected to remain stable in the future.

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Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

 

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According to the data of business agency, on March 30, the average early price of silver market was 5105.33 yuan / kg, down 1.76%, up 3.59% from the average early price of 4928.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the early trading average price of 4770 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1), an increase of 7.03%.

 

On March 30, the spot market price of gold was 394.79 yuan / g, a daily drop of 0.38%, up 1.94% from the early average price of 387.29 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the early average price was 372.37 yuan / kg, an increase of 6.02%.

 

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals tends to be similar, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

 

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

 

List of policies

 

The central bank will conduct a 7-day reverse repo operation of 150 billion yuan in the open market on the 30th, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.1%, which is the same as before. As 20 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net investment of 130 billion yuan was realized on that day.

 

Future forecast

 

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of raising interest rates is expected to suppress the price of precious metals. In terms of futures, the night trading was favorable due to the conflict negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk aversion decreased on the news side. In the short term, the upward trend of precious metal prices is weak.

PVA

Latest price (March 29): 10460 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of the business society, on March 29, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10460 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 99.24%. The price of raw yellow phosphorus operated at a high level, the start of phosphoric acid Market was stable, the prices of most enterprises continued to remain stable, the downstream purchasing attitude was cautious, and the transaction was general after the rise of phosphoric acid price. Up to now, the price of raw yellow phosphorus is 37000 yuan / ton, and the market price of phosphoric acid is about 9500-12000 yuan / ton.

 

The phosphoric acid market is expected to rise steadily in the short term.

PVA