1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in August. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1884 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% during the month and a decrease of 37.37% compared to the same period last year. On August 30th, the light soda ash commodity index was 92.82, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.91% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 46.98% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market continued to operate weakly this month. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is still at a high level, with sufficient soda ash production, accumulated market inventory, and active shipment by enterprises; On the demand side, the terminal market continues to operate weakly and mainly consumes inventory. At the same time, some glass companies have started cold repair plans, resulting in insufficient downstream demand and weak market trading atmosphere. Under the supply-demand game, the price of soda ash continues to decline. As of August 30, 2024, the price of soda ash in East China is weakly stable, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1650-1970 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in Central China has been lowered, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash being around 1520-1850 yuan/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of glass has continued to decline this month. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 17.24 yuan/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 15.72 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 8.82%. The spot prices in the glass market continue to be weak, with downstream inventory consumption being the main factor. Market demand is weak, and trading in the market is sluggish, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 34th week of 2024 (8.19-8.23), there was a total of 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities with zero rise and fall in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing an increase are: caustic soda (0.75%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.49%), light soda ash (-0.55%), and PVC (-0.22%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.25%.

Market forecast: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the recent price trend of light soda ash is mainly weak and stable, with some slight downward adjustments. The operating rate of spot alkali plant equipment has slightly decreased, but the supply of goods is still sufficient and the supply side support is insufficient. The downstream market is weak, and there is a cold repair plan in the glass market. The demand for soda ash is limited, and there is a lack of favorable market conditions. It is expected that soda ash will continue to be weak in the later period, depending on the demand in the downstream market.

Aluminum prices fell on August 29th

Aluminum prices rebounded overall in August, but fell on the 29th. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on August 29, 2024, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 19563.33 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.26%, and an increase of 1.96% compared to the market average price of 19186.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (August 1).

On August 29, 2024, the spot price of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) by Aluminum Corporation of China fell in various regions, with an external quotation of 19550 yuan/ton in the East China market, a daily decrease of 250 yuan/ton; The external quotation for the South China market is 19450 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 260 yuan/ton; The Southwest market quoted 19500 yuan/ton to the outside world, with a daily decline of 270 yuan/ton; The Central Plains market quoted 19460 yuan/ton to the outside world, with a daily decline of 240 yuan/ton.

Reasons for the decline in aluminum prices on the 29th

At the macro level, the optimistic sentiment brought about by the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in September has gradually been digested, and the benefits have basically been reflected in the price level. The subsequent boosting effect has weakened.

2. After the rise in aluminum prices, the downstream absorption capacity weakens. Mainly due to the pessimistic long-term expectations in the downstream market, partly due to the seasonal off-season of household appliances, and partly due to the significant pressure on real estate completion, the negative feedback effect of aluminum consumption is strong; More importantly, in terms of exports, the additional tariffs on new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may gradually be implemented, and photovoltaic exports are also facing certain pressure.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market this week was 15816.67 yuan/ton, and the market is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable this week. The price of titanium concentrate on the raw material remained stable at a high level, while the price of sulfuric acid remained stable for the time being. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable, while the trader’s quotation is relatively flexible. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the trading situation is light. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15400-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region is currently stable. At present, the spot prices in the market are relatively stagnant, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are generally in the market, and they are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with a focus on urgent needs and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1620-1650 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2280-2300 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2350-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, and trading on the market is relatively flexible. The downstream market demand is generally average, and we mainly adopt a wait-and-see approach. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the short term, with actual transaction prices subject to negotiation.

In late August, the domestic ABS market was weak, with some grades experiencing a drop in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 27th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11850 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.25% compared to the price level on August 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: Recently, the domestic ABS industry has experienced high and stable loads, with some enterprises entering maintenance. Last week, the overall operating rate slightly decreased by about 2% to 65% compared to the previous period. The weekly output is about 107000 tons, a decrease of 2500 tons compared to the previous month. The overall shipment situation of manufacturers remains unchanged, with some factory prices lowered and inventory continuing to accumulate. Overall, the current supply side has moderate support for ABS spot prices.

Cost factor: In late August, the overall trend of the three upstream materials of ABS was mainly consolidated, which provided moderate support for the cost side of ABS. Among them, the acrylonitrile market remained stable last weekend, with some spot prices rebounding slightly. Suppliers were reluctant to sell at low prices and tended to prefer contract trading. The positive support for the week mainly comes from the supply side, with the unplanned shutdown of the Jieyang plant in Jihua releasing some external procurement demand. The tightening of supply in southern China has provided support for market sentiment. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile has reached a historical low range, and there is an intention to buy at the bottom and replenish the market. Coupled with the approaching end of the month, the enthusiasm of middlemen for spot sales is not high, which has pushed up the focus of local negotiations.

In late August, the butadiene market experienced narrow fluctuations, with a slight rebound in market prices, but the magnitude was limited. Last week, some companies in Shandong suspended their export plans, which led to a slight rebound in spot market prices in the region and indirectly affected the slight increase in market quotes in East China. But the downstream market demand has always been lukewarm, providing little support for the market atmosphere. Overall, the butadiene market has shown weak supply and demand in recent times, and it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term.

In late August, the styrene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, with little recent market volatility. The pure benzene market is consolidating at a low level, with poor cost support. Although the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports has decreased, the spot demand for styrene is mainly driven by rigid demand, making it difficult to stimulate the market. Recently, the rise in styrene has been weak, and it is expected that there may still be a slight decline in the future market..

In terms of demand: As the end of August approaches, there is still no sign of the peak season market starting for ABS’s main terminal demand. The high temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers is expected to last until the end of this month, and as a result, the overall load position of downstream factories is relatively low. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and the stocking operation is mainly based on weak demand. Traders follow the market and the flow of goods is relatively slow. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS prices in the second half of August are trending towards a softer trend. The weak consolidation of the upstream three materials is the main factor, and the cost support for ABS is average. The load of ABS polymerization plants in the interval is stable with a slight decrease, and the weak and rigid demand situation on the demand side continues. The peak season consumption in the market has not yet started. The social inventory is rising, and the supply-demand contradiction has not eased. Overall, it is expected that the ABS market will maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been stagnant recently, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various brands. As of August 26th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16250 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -1.32% compared to August 1st.

Cause analysis

Supply side: Since mid August, the overall operating rate of PC in China has remained relatively stable, with the industry average operating rate remaining the same as before, at around 75%. At present, spot prices are still at the low point of the year at the end of July, and producers are pushing prices to build a bottom, but it is difficult to make further operations. The scale of the future maintenance plan is average, and Wanhua Chemical, which had previously shut down the entire line, gradually restarted on the 23rd, with expectations of a slight increase in industry load. The on-site supply of goods will still remain abundant, and overall, the market supply side provides moderate support for PC prices.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the current domestic price trend of bisphenol A continues the previous weak pattern. The remote international crude oil price increase is suppressed by weak demand prospects, and the fluctuations of bisphenol A raw materials such as phenol and acetone have led to moderate support for bisphenol A on the raw material side. In recent times, there has been a trade-off between maintenance and resumption of work in the bisphenol A industry, with a flattening trend in supply and a stalemate in supply side support. The downstream stocking of the two main forces is weak and the demand for procurement is high, resulting in poor liquidity of the source of goods. Overall, bisphenol A has poor cost support for PC.

In terms of demand, the PC consumption pattern has not shown any improvement in the medium to long term, and the overall trend has been relatively weak compared to the previous period. The main logic of procurement is biased towards weak rigid demand, with factories taking goods to maintain production. Downstream enterprises have low loads, weak stocking enthusiasm, and low consumption levels. Buyers have strong resistance to high priced goods and have a negative response to the rally from aggregation factories. The circulation of goods on site is slow. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future forecast

The PC market has been stagnant at a low level recently. The weak trend of upstream bisphenol A market continues, and the support for PC cost side weakens. The load of domestic aggregation plants is fluctuating, and there has been no improvement in supply side factors. In the early stage, PC prices fell to the low range of the year, but the market did not rebound due to bottoming out forces. On the contrary, downstream weak rigid demand consumption is difficult to drive the market. The market supply flow is poor, and the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the PC market will continue to operate at a low level in the short term.