Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (May 5): 4340 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the market situation of acetic acid is sorted upward. The average market price in East China is increased by 1.88% compared with the previous working day, the price of acetic acid in Shandong is increased by 100 yuan / ton, the quotation of acetic acid in holidays is slightly increased, the downstream demand is improved compared with the previous period, and the market trading atmosphere is mainly wait-and-see. Some manufacturers in the supplier market have maintenance plans for acetic acid devices, the mentality of operators is optimistic, and the quotation of enterprises is sorted up.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term acetic acid market, and pay attention to the market supply.

Zinc prices fell continuously this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market recovered slightly after falling continuously this week. As of April 29, the price of zinc was 27742 yuan / ton, down 2.64% from 28494 yuan / ton on April 22 last weekend. Since the domestic spot zinc price hit a record high of 28754 yuan / ton on April 20, the zinc price recovered slightly after falling for four consecutive trading days. This week, the zinc market stopped falling and rebounded, and the zinc market fluctuated and adjusted at a high level.

The epidemic disturbs the production and marketing of the automobile industry

According to the passenger car production and sales data released by the passenger Federation, the retail sales volume in March 2022 was 1.579 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.814 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% and a month on month increase of 23.6%; The output was 1.823 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% and a month on month increase of 22%. According to the survey data of the passenger Federation, the National Automobile wholesale volume decreased by 40% year-on-year in the first week of April. Among them, the wholesale sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen decreased by 84% year-on-year, and that of SAIC GM decreased by 98% year-on-year. As of April 23, the sales volume in April fell by 39% year-on-year. Automobile sales have fallen sharply, the market demand is weak, the demand for galvanized sheet is declining, the demand for zinc ingot is weak, and the rising space of zinc market is limited.

The auto industry chain will resume production one after another

In mid April, the curtain of resumption of work and production was gradually opened in Shanghai. On the 18th, SAIC Group and other automobile manufacturers started the pressure test of resumption of work and production. With the implementation of the white list of “resumption of work and production”, more automobile related enterprises and enterprises in other industries have also joined the army of resumption of work and production. Market demand is slowly picking up. However, in the resumption of work and production, enterprises still face a series of challenges. The recovery speed of demand is slow or difficult to meet expectations. The demand may still be in the recovery stage in May.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: after the zinc price hit a record high, it fell rapidly, the construction of downstream enterprises in the domestic zinc market fell, the production and sales volume of the automobile industry fell sharply, the demand of the zinc market was weak, the effect of resumption of work and production was not as expected, the room for zinc price rise was limited, and the high zinc price fell rapidly. With the advent of the May Day holiday, manufacturers prepared goods in advance, resumed work and production, continued to stimulate the recovery of downstream consumption, and the zinc price stopped falling and rising. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of zinc market will be weak for a long time in the future, the rising space of zinc price is limited after reaching a record high, the fear of zinc supply shortage is difficult to alleviate, and the falling space of zinc price is small. It is expected that the high shock adjustment of zinc price in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride first rose and then fell in late April. As of April 29, the average price of phenylhydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 11500.00 yuan / ton, up 2.07% from the average price of 11266.67 yuan / ton on April 15 and down 5.48% from the same period last month.

On April 29, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 108.33, the same as yesterday, 34.91% lower than the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and 111.66% higher than the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Recently, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market has declined. In the near future, the downstream unsaturated resin market has been basically stable, dominated by rigid demand. As of the 29th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 10500 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 10500 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 11000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, pure benzene rose in shock this week. The average price of pure benzene was 8380 yuan / ton on April 15 and 8590 yuan / ton on April 29, up 210 yuan / ton, or 2.51%. At present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend, some downstream purchase intentions have rebounded to a certain extent, and the demand support is obvious. Superimposed on the pre holiday replenishment demand, the price of pure benzene has risen recently. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China rose this week. The average price of hydrogenated benzene was 8387.5 yuan / ton on April 15 and 8550 yuan / ton on April 29, an increase of 1.94%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6600 yuan / ton as of April 29.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is mainly sorted out, and the downstream resin manufacturers are mainly in need of purchase. Affected by the domestic epidemic, transportation is limited, and the atmosphere of goods preparation in the downstream before the festival is light. In May, the maleic anhydride shutdown units were restored one after another, and the supply increased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be mainly sorted out in the near future.

In April, DBP prices fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP fluctuated and fell in April, and the overall DBP market weakened. As of April 30, the price of DBP was 10050 yuan / ton, down 6.94% from 10800 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the price of DBP fell and the plasticizer Market weakened.

In April, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fell in April, and the market of n-butanol fell. On April 30, the price of n-butanol was 9166.67 yuan / ton, down 4.18% from 9566.67 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell violently, the cost of DBP decreased, and the downward pressure of DBP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride continued to fall in April

According to the price monitoring of business society, the market of phthalic anhydride continued to decline in April, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. As of April 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8137.50 yuan / ton, down 6.87% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline in March, the operation of downstream plasticizer manufacturers was low, the demand for phthalic anhydride was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The cost of DBP raw materials decreased, the cost support of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure of DBP increased.

Future expectations

According to the DBP data analyst of business agency, the plasticizer industry chain started to operate at a low level in April, the supply and demand of plasticizer market were weak, the epidemic control was strengthened, the downstream construction continued to decline, and the demand for plasticizer decreased by nearly half. In terms of raw materials, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell, the price of phthalic anhydride continued to decline, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of plasticizer DBP fell, and the price of DBP fell. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of DBP industrial chain are both weak, the cost of DBP is reduced, the demand is low, the downward pressure of DBP is increased, and the price of DBP is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future. However, after May Day, the replenishment of downstream customers increased, and the DBP price may rise briefly.

Latest price (April 28): 10680 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on April 28, the market price of phosphoric acid was 10680 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 103.43%. Near the holiday, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus was temporarily stable, the phosphoric acid Market was stable, the main orders were issued, there were few transactions before the festival, and the logistics in some areas was still limited. At present, the price of phosphoric acid is about 11500-36000 yuan / ton, and the price of phosphoric acid is about 10300-36000 yuan / ton.

The phosphoric acid market is expected to operate stably in the short term.