The monitoring shows that on March 1, HuJiao continued to reduce slightly by about 150 yuan / ton, and the spot price was adjusted with the offer. According to the data, Indonesia exported 195000 tons of natural rubber in January 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. In terms of varieties, the export of standard glue was 190000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; The export of cigarette glue decreased by 2.3% year-on-year; Latex exports fell 15.8% year-on-year. In January, Indonesia exported 11000 tons of mixed rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 61%. Overall, Indonesia exported 196000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% and 214000 tons in the same period last year.

Key points of analysis: on the supply side, the main production areas in Southeast Asia continue to reduce production, and the output is close to the lowest valley period of the year. In addition, the recent flood disaster in many provinces of Thailand, the local latex production reduction rate is expected to accelerate; China’s domestic area is still in the stop cutting period. Recently, the local weather is good, and it is expected that the rubber cutting in the domestic area may be advanced. On the inventory side, it is reported that the inventory of natural rubber trading enterprises and bonded inventory in Qingdao continue to accumulate, and it is reported that the amount of futures warehouse receipts is higher than that in the same period last year; On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises rebounded, and the purchase enthusiasm has a certain support for the natural rubber market price, but there has been no significant change. To a certain extent, the epidemic and the tension of overseas situation have increased the impact of the market tension on the automotive industry. Coupled with the pressure of short futures, the transaction in the natural rubber spot market is weak.

Future forecast: focus on the comprehensive impact of Rainstorm in Southeast Asia, epidemic situation, overseas situation, weather and spot accumulation in China. The short-term trend is weak and there is some support in the medium term. However, in view of the continuous accumulation of domestic inventory and the increase of output after cutting in China’s domestic areas at the end of March, if the demand is not followed up synchronously, the trend of natural rubber will still be unknown.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 4622 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 5.13% from the previous day. On February 28, Shandong Jinling dichloromethane bulk water was delivered in cash at 4730 yuan / ton. The market offer fell. After the festival, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and consolidated, and the cost was supported by dichloromethane. However, the supply and demand side is weak, and the dichloromethane market is dominated by small orders. In addition, the construction of domestic methane chloride is higher than that before the festival, the supply side is loose, and the price of dichloromethane falls under the pressure of supply and demand.

Future forecast: the cost supports the price of dichloromethane, but the supply pressure and the demand are still weak. It is expected that the dichloromethane market will be weak and volatile in the later stage.

After the price of benzene stabilized in February

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene stabilized after rising in February. As of February 25, the price of orthobenzene was 7800 yuan / ton, up 9.86% from 7100 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of crude oil rose sharply, the price of mixed xylene rose sharply, the cost of orthobenzene rose, and the market of orthobenzene rose.

The price of raw material mixed xylene rose sharply

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in February, with an increase of 25.48%. The price of mixed xylene rises, the cost of o-xylene rises, and the driving force of o-xylene rise is large.

The price of downstream phthalic anhydride rose slightly

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly in February. As of February 25, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8062.50 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7925 yuan / ton on February 1 at the beginning of the month. In February, the price of phthalic anhydride rose, the demand for phthalic anhydride was strong and stable temporarily, the demand for o-xylene was stable temporarily, and the rising power of o-xylene remained.

Outlook

Analysts of orthoxylene data of business agency believe that affected by the rise of crude oil price, the price of raw material mixed xylene fluctuated sharply, the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly, and the favorable downstream market still exists. As a whole, the cost of o-xylene rose, the demand was temporarily stable, the driving force of o-xylene rise was large, and the price of o-xylene rose. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride tends to stabilize, and the price of mixed xylene fluctuates to maintain stability. It is expected that the price of adjacent benzene will stabilize strongly in the future.

The latest p-value price of ethylene glycol on February 24 was 5091.67 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the sharp deterioration of the situation in Ukraine triggered market shocks, the price of crude oil exceeded the 100 yuan mark, and the sharp rise in commodity prices exacerbated concerns about inflation and economic growth risks. Ethylene glycol is stronger than the previous market, but the overall supply and demand pressure is large, and the social inventory continues to accumulate slightly. Downstream polyester procurement slowed down, polyester closing price fell slightly, manufacturers intended to control inventory, and terminal orders were weak.

Forecast: the cost rises slightly, but the market is still dragged down by the downstream. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the recovery of the demand side. In the short term, it is expected to be low and wide.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (February 23): 8570 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8570 yuan / ton on February 23, down 0.23% from the previous trading day and up 4.35% year-on-year. At present, the macro atmosphere has weakened, the fundamentals of PVC have not changed greatly, the PVC market is still weak, and the prices rise and fall. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 4050-4150 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8300-8750 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to be stable and weak.