Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (February 15): 19233.33 yuan / ton

On February 15, the market price of epichlorohydrin was stabilized, up 0.35% compared with the previous trading day and 8.05% compared with the price on January 15. At present, the price of raw material propylene is high, the glycerol market is strong, the cost side has a certain support, the downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is general, mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market trading atmosphere is light.

It is expected that in the short term, the market of cyclopropane may be mainly arranged and operated on a wait-and-see basis.

1、 Price data

As of February 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 8413.25 yuan / ton, down 0.15% from 8425.25 yuan / ton on February 7. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 8200-8500 yuan / ton.

As of February 13, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 8187.50 yuan / ton, up 0.28% from 8165.00 yuan / ton on February 7. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 8100-8400 yuan / ton.

On February 13, the naphtha commodity index was 103.84, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.58% from the highest point of 104.45 in the cycle (2022-02-08), and up 145.83% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha first rose and then fell. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of international crude oil drove the naphtha market to rise continuously. After the festival, businesses actively replenished goods to boost the naphtha market. In the second half of the week, the price fell slightly due to the fluctuation of crude oil.

Upstream: the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated concerns about tight global energy supply. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that unless OPEC’s major oil producing countries in the Middle East increase production, the global oil price may rise further, because it is difficult for the OPEC alliance to resume production for a “long time”, and the crude oil price has risen to a seven-year high of more than $90 a barrel. Due to the rebound in demand after the epidemic, the global supply lags behind, and the oil inventory is at the lowest level in seven years, Crude oil prices rose. The situation in Ukraine and Russia is tense, and multiple factors affect the rise of international oil prices.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business community, toluene rose broadly after the festival and fell back. The price was 6290 yuan / ton on January 30 and 6860 yuan / ton on February 11, up 9.06% from before the festival. The price of mixed xylene rose broadly after the festival and fell slightly in the second half of the week. The price was 6490 yuan / ton on January 30 and 7140 yuan / ton on February 11, up 10.02% compared with that before the festival. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, up 9.59% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil price is high, the product oil market is high, and the naphtha market price is high. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of local refining enterprises, and the terminal just needs replenishment. It is expected that the local refining naphtha may rise in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3100 yuan / ton on February 7 and 3100 yuan / ton on February 11. The price of monoammonium phosphate was stable this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3595 yuan / ton on February 7 and 3620 yuan / ton on February 11. The price of diammonium phosphate rose by 0.70% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market of monoammonium phosphate is generally stable this week. The raw materials are stable and good, and the cost support is good. There was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue, the waiting volume of enterprises was sufficient, and the manufacturers had the intention to raise prices. At present, the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Anhui is 3150-3300 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of 55% powdered ammonium in Henan is about 2800-2900 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

This week, the market of diammonium phosphate is advancing steadily. At present, due to the sufficient previous orders, most enterprises suspend receiving orders and do not receive payment temporarily, and mainly issue previous orders. The winter storage market is developing well, and the purchasing atmosphere in Northeast China is good. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3550-3650 yuan / ton, and the arrival quotation of 64% diammonium in Heilongjiang in Yunnan Guizhou is 3750-3850 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

This week, the domestic market of raw phosphorus ore was sorted and operated at a high level. After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic phosphorus ore market maintained a temporary stable operation trend before the festival. The downstream mainly digested the early inventory, and the demand side was general. In terms of supply, the on-site commencement was gradually carried out, the supply pressure was small, and the quotations of mining enterprises were mostly high and stable. The price of raw sulfur rose this week, there was no pressure on the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries, the shipment of enterprises was smooth, and the sulfur market was strong.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, due to the high cost and price of ammonium phosphate, the manufacturers have strong intention to increase, so they mainly wait and see for the time being. Ammonium phosphate has sufficient orders and good winter storage market. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will run steadily and well in the short term.

On February 10, 2022, the domestic crude benzene price was 6339 yuan / ton, up from the previous day.

Basically, the prices of pure benzene and crude oil rose after the festival. Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton. Although the crude oil price rebounded slightly near the weekend, the overall industrial chain is still upward. The price of hydrogenated benzene increased with pure benzene. At present, the mainstream ex factory price is 8100 yuan / ton. The bidding price of crude benzene was introduced this week, which was significantly higher than that of last week. The price of crude benzene in Shandong was 6580 ~ 6585 yuan / ton, which was 370 yuan / ton higher than that of last week. Crude oil rebounded slightly yesterday, styrene prices continued to fall on the 10th, and pure benzene weakened slightly with styrene. Today, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8450 yuan / ton.

Trade name: caprolactam

Latest price: 14125 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of caprolactam rose on February 9, up 0.36% compared with the previous trading day. At present, the raw material pure benzene has a strong high level and good cost support. Today, the trading atmosphere of caprolactam was good, the manufacturer’s supply was stable, the downstream procurement began to follow up, and the overall market situation was strong. It is recommended to focus on cost and demand side changes.

Future forecast: the price of caprolactam will rise steadily in the short term.