1、 Price data

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7630.75 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 7538.25 yuan / ton on January 10. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7602.50 yuan / ton, up 1.60% from 7482.50 yuan / ton on January 10. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

On January 16, the naphtha commodity index was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.86% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.96% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released, and the manufacturers actively pushed up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose this week. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the oil price trend rose; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rose continuously this week, and the rise in South China was good. The price was 5830.00 yuan / ton on January 7 and 5930.20 yuan / ton on January 14, up 1.72% from last week. Mixed xylene continued to rise this week, and the price rose continuously. The price was 6100.00 yuan / ton on January 7 and 6290.00 yuan / ton on January 14, up 3.11% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week, and the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6900.00 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend was strong in early January, and the spot prices of various brands rose slightly. As of January 14, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8270.00 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.72% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the price of propylene (Shandong) continued to rise slightly this week, and the increase was narrower than that of last week. Due to the maintenance of enterprises in some areas, the supply is slightly tight, the downstream demand is insufficient, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the propylene price continues to rise, the resistance increases, the demand constraints, and the price is difficult to continue to break through.

Upstream, the price of propylene raw material has risen, the recent shock of dynamic coal has warmed up, the international crude oil price has generally strengthened, and the PP cost support is OK. The supply of PP was abundant this week. The shutdown and maintenance of several enterprises smoothed the impact of the commissioning of new equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the supply tended to be stable. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises have the demand for goods preparation before the festival. At the same time, arbitrage and hedging participate in the admission, and the on-site trading is acceptable. The bottom of the spot price has been raised, and the low-end offer of merchants has risen, but there is great resistance to the delivery of high-priced goods.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of January 14, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8250 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 1.64%, and the rise and fall range over the same period last year is 0.00%. Recently, there is also a pre Festival stock demand for PP fiber materials, and the consumption of end products is stable. The operating rate of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises is maintained at more than 50%, and the mainstream quotation of the main downstream product spunbonded non-woven fabric is about 11500 yuan / ton. Terminal enterprises are about to enter the holiday schedule, and the demand will gradually decline in the later stage. However, the market currently focuses on cost and demand, and it is expected that the recent fiber material market may be dominated by shock finishing.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market operated weakly and stably this week. As of January 14, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9483.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. Recently, it has been reported that masks and other materials are in short supply in some areas. From the market point of view, it will take some time to pull the spot market of melt blown cloth. The saturation pattern of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. There is still capacity transfer out at the beginning of the year, and the spot price is difficult to rise.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market rose in early January, the dynamic coal market stopped falling and the shock recovered, the crude oil was generally strong, and the cost side generally boosted the PP spot price. Terminal enterprises are in the pre holiday stock demand, and the on-site trading is OK. At present, the focus of guiding the market is on the cost side and the demand side. It is expected that the PP market may still be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.

On January 13, the rare earth index was 852 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 14.80% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and increased by 214.39% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 900000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 1095000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 1020000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 1170000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1240000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 301 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.98 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.8 million yuan / ton. The domestic light rare earth market price continues to rise, and the recent procurement is general. The dysprosium series price in the domestic heavy rare earth market rises, while the terbium series price is temporarily stable, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export, and it is expected that the domestic rare earth market price will continue to rise in the later period.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (January 12): 6010 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the trend of acetic acid market continues to decline today, and the price is 0.33% lower than that of the previous working day. The domestic market is weak. At present, the domestic acetic acid enterprises are operating on the high side, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream market is mainly for purchasing, the demand is weak, the enterprises compete for shipping, the market is weak and downward, and the field operators are bearish about the future market mentality.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market continues to be weak and wait-and-see, with specific attention to the market supply.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (January 11): 17475.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the average price of TDI market in East China increased by 1.90% compared with yesterday. The domestic TDI market continued to be strong. The spot filling in the market was slow, the supply of goods was tight, the traders in the field were reluctant to sell goods, the offer was raised again, the supply of low-price goods was difficult to find, the purchase enthusiasm in the downstream was reduced compared with that in the past, mainly in need of purchase, and the atmosphere in the field was cautious. The quotation of the distribution market in East China closely follows the rise of the market. The quotation of domestic goods is about 17200-17500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 17500-17700 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: the short-term TDI market is relatively strong, and we will pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.