Category Archives: Uncategorized

On January 20, the market price of isopropanol in China rose

Trade name: isopropanol

 

The latest price on January 20: 7216.67 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: the domestic isopropanol market rose steadily on January 20. At present, isopropanol is the main export order. The manufacturer’s price inventory is small, with a slight increase in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and a relatively stable increase in Shandong. On the whole, the trading atmosphere in the domestic market is general, the traders are more cautious, and the traders remain on the sidelines.

 

Forecast: the price of isopropanol will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

PVA

On January 19, China’s domestic PVC prices rose

1、 Price trend

 

Latest price (January 19): 8420 yuan / ton

 

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, the average domestic spot price of pvcc5 was 8420 yuan / ton on January 19, up 0.72% from the previous day, and the ex factory price of enterprises increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. Recently, the favorable interest rate cut by the central bank, coupled with the rebound of PVC futures driven by crude oil and coal, has driven the sharp rise in the spot market, the reduction of low-cost supply, the peace of mind of cargo holders and active shipment. At present, the price of pvc5 calcium carbide method remains in the range of 8100-8800 yuan / ton, and the price of raw calcium carbide is about 450 yuan / ton.

 

It is expected that the PVC market will continue to rise under the support of positive results.

PVA

On January 18, EVA market price increased slightly

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of EVA in the domestic market was 17166.67 yuan / ton on January 17 and 17500.00 yuan / ton on January 18, with a single day increase of 1.94%, down 2.78% compared with January 1.

 

On the 18th, the domestic EVA rose slightly, the petrochemical ex factory price increased individually, the cost support was ok, the market spot supply was still tight, which brought some support, the downstream maintained replenishment on demand, the mentality was cautious, the merchants offered sporadic increases, and the market trading atmosphere was general. It is expected that the EVA market price will still increase in the short term.

PVA

The price of refined naphtha continued to rise this week (1.10-1.16)

1、 Price data

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7630.75 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 7538.25 yuan / ton on January 10. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

 

As of January 16, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7602.50 yuan / ton, up 1.60% from 7482.50 yuan / ton on January 10. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7500-7700 yuan / ton.

 

On January 16, the naphtha commodity index was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.86% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.96% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

 

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released, and the manufacturers actively pushed up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

 

PVA

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose this week. Although the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is still severe, the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants, and the oil price trend rose; In addition, the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was implemented, the relatively conservative policy was in line with market expectations, and the oil price was supported. Some geopolitical factors such as the interruption of supply in Libya, the unrest in Kazakhstan and some political factors affect the supply expectation, and the international oil price has received some support.

 

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, the price of toluene rose continuously this week, and the rise in South China was good. The price was 5830.00 yuan / ton on January 7 and 5930.20 yuan / ton on January 14, up 1.72% from last week. Mixed xylene continued to rise this week, and the price rose continuously. The price was 6100.00 yuan / ton on January 7 and 6290.00 yuan / ton on January 14, up 3.11% from last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week, and the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6900.00 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.

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The demand for goods preparation before the festival was large, and the PP market price fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend was strong in early January, and the spot prices of various brands rose slightly. As of January 14, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8270.00 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.72% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

Cause analysis

 

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream propylene, the price of propylene (Shandong) continued to rise slightly this week, and the increase was narrower than that of last week. Due to the maintenance of enterprises in some areas, the supply is slightly tight, the downstream demand is insufficient, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the propylene price continues to rise, the resistance increases, the demand constraints, and the price is difficult to continue to break through.

 

Upstream, the price of propylene raw material has risen, the recent shock of dynamic coal has warmed up, the international crude oil price has generally strengthened, and the PP cost support is OK. The supply of PP was abundant this week. The shutdown and maintenance of several enterprises smoothed the impact of the commissioning of new equipment of Zhejiang Petrochemical, and the supply tended to be stable. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises have the demand for goods preparation before the festival. At the same time, arbitrage and hedging participate in the admission, and the on-site trading is acceptable. The bottom of the spot price has been raised, and the low-end offer of merchants has risen, but there is great resistance to the delivery of high-priced goods.

 

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of January 14, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8250 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 1.64%, and the rise and fall range over the same period last year is 0.00%. Recently, there is also a pre Festival stock demand for PP fiber materials, and the consumption of end products is stable. The operating rate of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises is maintained at more than 50%, and the mainstream quotation of the main downstream product spunbonded non-woven fabric is about 11500 yuan / ton. Terminal enterprises are about to enter the holiday schedule, and the demand will gradually decline in the later stage. However, the market currently focuses on cost and demand, and it is expected that the recent fiber material market may be dominated by shock finishing.

 

PVA

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market operated weakly and stably this week. As of January 14, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 9483.33 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.35% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. Recently, it has been reported that masks and other materials are in short supply in some areas. From the market point of view, it will take some time to pull the spot market of melt blown cloth. The saturation pattern of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises remains unchanged. There is still capacity transfer out at the beginning of the year, and the spot price is difficult to rise.

 

Future forecast

 

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market rose in early January, the dynamic coal market stopped falling and the shock recovered, the crude oil was generally strong, and the cost side generally boosted the PP spot price. Terminal enterprises are in the pre holiday stock demand, and the on-site trading is OK. At present, the focus of guiding the market is on the cost side and the demand side. It is expected that the PP market may still be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.

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