1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on the 16th, the copper price fell slightly. The spot price was 68508.33 yuan / ton, down 0.64% from the previous day, up 18.21% from the beginning of the year and 18.28% year-on-year.

US inflation continued to soar, and copper fell $131 overnight. The domestic economic data in November was lower than expected, which depressed the copper price. Downstream power and production restrictions are ended, mostly to digest early orders. In November, the operating rate of copper cables rose back to 85.55%, with a month on month increase of 5.1%. It is expected that the operating rate of cables will decline again in December. The operating rate of domestic copper rods was 65.79%, down 2.31% on a week-on-week basis. Meanwhile, the supply of scrap copper continued to be tight. Copper inventory is low, and the short-term copper price may maintain a narrow shock trend.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (December 15): 8570 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on December 15, the main PVC contract 2205 closed at 805, down 2.86%. The futures fell, driving the spot market to continue to fall. On December 15, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8570 yuan / ton, down 0.58% from the previous day. The reduction range of enterprises was mostly in the range of 50-300 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price is 8300-8800 yuan / ton. Enterprises continue to reduce prices to sell for shipment, However, in the off-season of demand, the market trading is relatively flat, coupled with the decline of raw materials, the market has strong negative factors.

Forecast: PVC prices are expected to continue to weaken in the short term.

On December 14, the rare earth index was 801 points, unchanged from yesterday, decreased by 19.90% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and increased by 195.57% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period since December 1, 2011).

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series is temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 852500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal is 10350000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide is 885000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide is 88000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium is 115000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium is 1115000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide is 2945000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.78 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have fallen, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, while the price of terbium series is maintained, and the downstream procurement is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price trend of domestic rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

Price: industrial grade lithium carbonate 215600 yuan / ton, battery grade lithium carbonate 228000 yuan / ton

Analysis: the price rise of lithium carbonate continues to increase. Due to the increasingly serious mood of goods preparation at the end of the year, the market procurement volume continues to increase. The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in the downstream also increased significantly, so the demand for lithium carbonate continued to increase. At present, the inventory of traders has decreased, the reduction in the domestic market is obvious, and the supply of goods is relatively tight.

Forecast: at present, the substantial expansion of lithium iron phosphate production leads to the increasing purchase of upstream raw material lithium carbonate, and the price of lithium carbonate has been bid up. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to rise in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market trend fluctuated and fell in early December, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of December 10, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8090.00 yuan / ton, up or down – 3.00% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: Recently, the propylene price in Shandong stabilized after falling, and the upstream oil price was repaired after falling sharply, providing support for propylene. However, the downstream demand is weak, coupled with sufficient supply in the propylene market, it is expected that the propylene short-term market will maintain a volatile downward trend.

Upstream, the price of propylene and other raw materials is weak, and the collapse of PP cost support in the early stage has not been improved. In addition, the supply of PP remains abundant, the operating rate of the industry is stable, and the storage of two barrels of oil depot is stable. The operating rate of the industry and its downstream is still average, the purchase follow-up of end users is not timely, and the merchant’s offer confidence is poor. Some polymerization plants consider reducing the burden and reducing the pressure.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business society, as of December 10, the spot price trend of domestic fiber PP stabilized after falling. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8216.67 yuan / ton, up or down – 4.27% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 6.81%. Recently, the demand for PP fiber materials has been stable. Due to the falling cost, the operating rate of the main downstream non-woven enterprises has increased slightly, and the consumption of end products is flat compared with last week, giving general support to fiber materials.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market is weak. As of December 10, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the business community is about 9650 yuan / ton, up or down – 0.34% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. During the period of high incidence of recent rebound in health events in various countries, the number of local diagnoses in some areas of China has increased. However, the supply of meltblown materials in the field is sufficient, and dilution has a pulling effect on the spot market of meltblown cloth. In addition, the weakening of cost side support smoothes the bullish market, and the market lacks guidance for horizontal operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business society believe that the domestic polypropylene market continued to be weak in early December, the cost side is still weak, and the upstream support for PP is poor. The demand of terminal enterprises is not followed up enough, and it is expected that the PP market may still fall in a narrow range in the short term.