1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 21st, the average quotation price of high-quality DMF enterprises in China was 4160 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market has slightly declined, with prices dropping by 0.48% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the overall market focus of DMF is weak, and operators have a cautious purchasing mentality. The mainstream market price is around 4100 yuan/ton, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders at low inventory levels.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF has been running weakly with a narrow range, and the price has fallen sharply compared to the same period last week. The mainstream price remains around 4100 yuan/ton, and the overall market trend is weak. The mainstream price range is around 4100-4200 yuan/ton, and inventory is running at a high level. The supply side is sufficient, and downstream procurement is active. Currently, DMF cost support is insufficient, and inventory is running at a high level.

In terms of cost, the upstream methanol market has been operating steadily with small fluctuations this week, and some units have announced maintenance plans. Currently, the trading atmosphere on site has improved. In the Kanto region, the methanol market is operating steadily, and inventory remains low. There is currently no pressure on inventory, and enterprises in Shanxi region are maintaining the previous shipment rate, with prices showing an upward trend.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term, with little upward momentum. The mainstream price is around 4100-4200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6740 yuan/ton, which is 0.15% lower than the reference average price of 6750 yuan/ton on November 14th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 20th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7000 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 7000 yuan/ton on November 14th.

2、 Market analysis

Market aspect

This week, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have slightly declined. As of November 20th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7150 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. This week, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market is weak and declining. Downstream price cutting procurement, cautious in purchasing goods. At present, the market transaction atmosphere is quiet, and new orders are limited in volume. It is expected that the domestic price of yellow phosphorus will remain weak in the short term.

Raw material phosphate rock market. This week, the phosphate ore market has remained stable, maintaining a high level of temporary stability. Downstream on-demand procurement ensures stable shipment of phosphate ore. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This week, the supply and demand of the phosphoric acid market are balanced, with the main focus on issuing preliminary orders. Downstream on-demand procurement, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. There is currently no significant fluctuation in short-term market supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been weak recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, and cost support has weakened. Downstream demand is dominant, with few new orders in the market and average trading. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will observe raw material prices and focus on narrow range consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the PP market was generally flat in mid November, and the prices of various brands of products were basically stable. As of November 19th, the mainstream offer price for wire drawing by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7585.71 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.09% compared to the price level at the beginning of November.

Price trend

In terms of raw materials:

In terms of international crude oil, the change rate of crude oil remained negative in mid November due to the disturbance of the US presidential election. At the same time, the expectation of easing the geopolitical situation has led to a bearish support for the upstream of PP in the near future. The supply of propylene has been relaxed, coupled with news of new production capacity being put into operation domestically, leading to recent market fluctuations and consolidation. Although propane is suppressed by upstream trends, the inventory position is low, and the costs of propane and PDH production are stabilizing. Overall, the performance of PP raw materials in mid November was average, with moderate support on the cost side.

Supply side:

In mid November, the load level of domestic PP enterprises continued the downward trend from the previous period. Previously, the equipment maintenance of enterprises such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Guangzhou Petrochemical has not yet been restored. Recently, Donghua Energy and CNOOC Shell also have plans for equipment maintenance, with more production line maintenance than resumption of work. The overall industry load has been reduced from 75% at the beginning of the month to around 74%. At present, the domestic PP inventory is stable at around 690000 tons, which has decreased compared to the previous period. But the supply is still at a sufficient level. Overall, the supply side provides sufficient support for PP spot prices.

In terms of demand:

In mid November, there was limited change in the demand side of PP, and the load of end enterprises generally flattened. The consumption level of woven bags such as fertilizers, cement, and rice remains stable, and the willingness to hold positions has cooled down narrowly; The inventory of raw materials in BOPP film enterprises has generally shrunk; The consumption of pipes has slightly rebounded due to the recent policy of lowering the real estate transaction tax. Overall, the demand side is struggling with hedging in various aspects and is generally weak and stable.

Future forecast

In mid November, the domestic PP market prices remained stagnant. Fundamentally speaking, the overall performance of upstream raw materials in supporting PP is average. However, supply side maintenance is concentrated, but according to market feedback, there are concerns among industry players about the release of new production capacity in the future. In the short term, the market is struggling with the game, and it is expected that PP prices will continue to consolidate and operate.

Analysis: This week (11.11-15), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 2.69%. The main reason is that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 100-200 yuan/ton. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2600-2800 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, there will be a low season for agricultural demand procurement, and industrial demand will follow suit with sufficient supply. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later period. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north will hover or tighten supply with low prices. On the other hand, the export of liquid ammonia may improve. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, while industrial demand urgently needs to follow up. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, and there is a possibility of a price rebound.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on November 15th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 12120 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to November 8th. Compared to November 1st (silicon metal # 441 market price of 12070 yuan/ton), the price increased by 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%; Compared with October 1st (market price of 11960 yuan/ton for silicon metal # 441), the price has increased by 160 yuan/ton, a 1.34% increase.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since November, the overall market situation of domestic silicon metal # 441 has shown a stable operation after rising. At the beginning of the month, there was a slight upward adjustment in the spot market for silicon metal in some regions of China, including Tianjin and Huangpu Port. The market price of silicon metal # 441 increased by 50 yuan/ton. The market prices of Metal Silicon # 441 and Metal Silicon 553 # (oxygen supply) in Kunming area have increased by 50 yuan and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of silicon metal # 553 (without oxygen) in Sichuan region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the spot market for silicon metal # 441 remained stable until mid month. As of November 15th, the domestic market price reference for metallic silicon 441 # is around 11900-12400 yuan/ton.

Fundamental situation

In terms of construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of metal silicon enterprises in northern China has not changed much, with the northern region maintaining a high level of construction, while the construction rate of metal silicon in Sichuan Yunnan region has decreased to some extent.

On the supply side: Currently, the overall supply of silicon metal in the market has narrowed. With the downward adjustment of silicon metal production in some regions, it is expected that the overall market output will also decrease. The overall supply of silicon metal has contracted, and there is not much pressure on the spot market supply, resulting in tight circulation.

In terms of demand, the overall demand performance of downstream silicon metal is still mainly based on on-demand procurement, and the overall demand side has not changed much compared to the previous period.

In terms of inventory: According to incomplete statistics, on November 8th, the estimated social inventory of domestic silicon metal was around 499000 tons, a decrease of about 3000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, there were about 156000 tons in ordinary warehouses, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from last week.

In terms of production: According to incomplete statistics, China’s industrial silicon production in October was about 470000 tons, an increase of about 15700 tons compared to the previous month, with a growth rate of about 3.5%. From January to October 2024, the cumulative production of industrial silicon in China was about 4.1626 million tons, an increase of about 1.115 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of about 36.6%.

Market Price Trends of Metal Silicon

Brand number/ Region/ November 15th

#441./Tianjin area/ Around 11900~12100 yuan/ton

#441./Huangpu Port area/ Around 12000~12200 yuan/ton

#441./Kunming area/ Around 12200~12400 yuan/ton

#553 (oxygen supply)/ Kunming area/ Around 11700~11900 yuan/ton

#553 (without oxygen)/ Sichuan region/ Around 11200~11400 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, downstream purchases are made according to quantity, and the transmission of supply and demand remains weak. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.