1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of pure benzene has fallen this month, with a price of 9318 yuan/ton on July 1st; On July 12th, the price was 8834.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 36.54% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: The inventory of ports in East China has increased. The inventory of pure benzene in ports in Jiangsu region is 30000 tons, an increase of 9000 tons from the previous period’s inventory of 21000 tons, and a decrease of 83.9% from the same period last year. The market supply is abundant, and there is an increase in downstream maintenance equipment for pure benzene. It is expected that inventory will rise in July and August. The pure benzene market stopped falling after a downturn. At present, negotiations for pure benzene are approaching 8750 yuan/ton.

This month, the price of pure benzene from Sinopec has dropped to 8800 yuan/ton.

Downstream aspects

The market price of styrene has slightly increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated in the past three months, with a slight increase in the recent market trend. At present, the inventory of styrene at the port is low, and the production of styrene units has decreased significantly, resulting in a decrease in supply expectations. However, downstream demand is weak, which may suppress the rise of styrene prices. Business analysts predict that the styrene market will mainly rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Crude oil: NYMEX crude oil futures contract 08 rose $0.52 per barrel or 0.63% to 82.62; ICE Brent Oil Futures 09 contract rose $0.32 per barrel or 0.38% to 85.40. The main contract for Chinese INE crude oil futures, 2408, fell 0.1 to 621.2 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.9 to 620.3 yuan/barrel during the night trading session.

The price of raw materials rebounded after a continuous decline, and there is sufficient supply of pure benzene on the market. In mid July, there were more shipments from Jiangsu to the port, and pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term. We are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

On July 10th, the average market price in East China was 277960 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream quotation range for tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 277500 to 279500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 278250 yuan/ton, an increase of 3000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day.

In the morning session, the Shanghai Tin Exchange saw a narrow upward trend, with most of the morning spot markets following suit. However, in the second trading session, the market saw a slight expansion in gains. At the close of the 10th, the main contract of Shanghai Tin Exchange 2408 closed down 0.07%.

In the first five months, Indonesia’s exports decreased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the market has concerns about supply, providing support for tin prices. The domestic market is in a state of consolidation within a high range. Smelting enterprises still have a strong mentality of price support, and their shipment situation may be constrained. Downstream is in a wait-and-see mood, with high spot prices affecting transaction growth and the off-season continuing, and there is currently no upward trend in consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate with the overall market in the short term, maintaining a strong and volatile trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 9th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6460 yuan/ton, which is 0.16% higher than the reference average price of 6450 yuan/ton on July 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 9th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6666 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.99% compared to the reference average price of 6733 yuan/ton on July 1st.

2、 Market analysis

Entering July, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices have fluctuated and stabilized. As of July 9th, the market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6300-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6300-6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6600 yuan/ton.

Cost side

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In early July, the market price of yellow phosphorus steadily increased. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, with yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly raising prices. Downstream demand performance is average, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus price will remain high in the short term.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The market price of phosphate ore has slightly increased this month. The inquiry atmosphere inside the phosphate rock yard is mild, and some areas are experiencing tight supply of phosphate rock. It is expected that domestic phosphate ore prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

At present, the phosphoric acid market has sufficient supply and a moderate trading atmosphere. The demand for phosphoric acid in the market is weak, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is average. Manufacturers and distributors tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude, with a single focus on discussion.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s phosphoric acid analyst believes that the recent phosphoric acid market has seen a narrow consolidation and operation. The raw material yellow phosphorus market is rising, and the cost of thermal phosphoric acid is supported. The supply of wet process phosphoric acid has decreased, but downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the short-term market price of phosphoric acid may follow a slight increase in raw materials.

According to foreign news on July 5th, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, saw its crude oil exports drop to the lowest level in 10 months in June.

At the beginning of this week, cruise tracking data showed that global sea freight shipments in June decreased by 1 million barrels per day compared to May, with half of the crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia decreasing.

Data shows that Saudi Arabia’s sea freight crude oil shipments in June decreased by 529000 barrels per day to 5.606 million barrels per day, lower than May’s 6.135 million barrels per day.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride in June fluctuated and fell. As of June 28th, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.68% from the price of 8187.50 yuan/ton on June 1st. At the end of June, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7800-8000 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7300-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. At the end of June, the price of industrial naphthalene rose, the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride rose, the market of ortho phthalic anhydride stabilized, and the market of ortho phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell. The market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in June.

On the demand side: The trend of DOP on-demand procurement market is fluctuating and falling

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of June 28th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9875 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 10112.50 yuan/ton on June 1st; Compared to the DOP price of 10400 yuan/ton on June 10th, it has decreased by 5.05%. The market for plasticizer raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, while the price of isooctanol first rose and then fell. The cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the production of plasticizer DOP enterprises remained stable. The supply of plasticizer DOP was sufficient. Downstream manufacturers of plasticizers are experiencing a decline in production and poor demand. The downward pressure on plasticizers is increasing.

Future Market Forecast

According to analysts of Shengyishe’s phthalic anhydride product data, in the future, in terms of cost, the recent trend of crude oil prices has fluctuated and increased, while the high price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride still exists; The downstream DOP market is fluctuating and falling, with poor demand for plasticizers and poor purchasing enthusiasm. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.