The phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 6612.50 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.47% compared to the price of 6850 yuan/ton on December 1st. Stable operation of phthalic anhydride equipment and sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride; The price of ortho benzene fluctuated and fell, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride weakened. Supply exceeds demand and cost support is insufficient, resulting in a fluctuating decline in phthalic anhydride prices.

Supply side: Adequate supply of goods

In December, the operating load of domestic phthalic anhydride plants remained stable, with about 70% of phthalic anhydride manufacturers starting production. The supply of phthalic anhydride from manufacturers was stable, and the supply of phthalic anhydride was sufficient.

The cost of raw material ortho benzene has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the price of ortho benzene was 6700 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 290% compared to the price of ortho benzene of 6900 yuan/ton on December 1st. In December, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell, causing a decrease in the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride and increasing downward pressure on ortho phthalic anhydride.

Demand side: The DOP market fluctuated and fell in December

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the DOP price was 8826.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 2.35% compared to the DOP price of 9038.75 yuan/ton on December 1st. The price of plasticizers fluctuates and falls, the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises remains stable, and the supply of plasticizers is sufficient. The downstream PVC off-season is approaching, and the demand for plasticizers is falling. PVC product companies are gradually experiencing a decline in production, and as we enter November, the traditional off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. The expected operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has decreased, and plasticizer manufacturers have weak demand for phthalic anhydride. The support for phthalic anhydride demand has weakened, and the downward pressure on phthalic anhydride has increased.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost of phthalic anhydride has decreased; In terms of demand, the expected operating load of DOP manufacturers has decreased, and downstream support for phthalic anhydride has weakened. Overall, with the decrease in costs and sluggish demand, it is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will fluctuate and decline in the future.

This week (December 2-6, 2024), the cost side trend is upward, and the nylon filament market is experiencing a narrow upward trend. The weekly settlement price of upstream raw material Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been raised, and the market for high-speed spinning of nylon PA6 slices has continued to rise during the week, with strong cost support. On site supply is relatively loose, downstream market orders are insufficient, and manufacturers tend to have a certain degree of risk aversion, maintaining essential procurement and mainly consuming raw material inventory. Good and negative factors coexist in the market, and the price of nylon filament is cautiously rising narrowly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of nylon filament increased narrowly this week (December 2-6, 2024). As of December 6, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17360 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to last week, with a weekly increase of 0.35%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14800 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is quoted at 18200 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

Cost trend is on the rise

On the raw material side, the weekly closing price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam has been raised to 11680 yuan/ton, and the market price trend of high-speed spinning nylon PA6 slices has been upward. The market price of raw materials has increased significantly during the week, with strong support from the cost side. As of December 6th, the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society was 11216 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.11%.

Supply demand

Most of the devices in the nylon filament market are operating stably, and new production increases can be continuously released in the field. The industry supply still shows an increasing trend; The downstream market is facing a shortage of orders, and manufacturers tend to have a certain degree of risk aversion to maintain essential purchases. The enthusiasm for replenishment is not high, and the demand side is dragging down the trend of the nylon filament market.

Future forecast

The spot market for upstream raw material caprolactam and the market for nylon PA6 chips may continue to rise, but the fluctuations are not significant, and cost support still exists. The new production increase in the nylon filament industry can continue to be released, and the market supply may remain high, while on-site inventory may continue to increase. The downstream market may continue to follow up on demand, and the terminal market is in the traditional off-season of demand, with a gradually weakening trend in raw material demand. It is difficult for the demand side to have positive support. Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the nylon filament market price will slightly strengthen next week, with an expected increase of 100-200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on December 5th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 9112 yuan/ton. On November 30th, the domestic cyclohexanone market price reference was 8950 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 162 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.82%.

From the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the beginning of December, the domestic cyclohexanone market showed an overall upward trend. At the end of October, the domestic cyclohexanone market had already experienced a recovery, with cost support and a steady decline in market prices. As we entered December, the rise in cyclohexanone prices did not stop, and the overall market focus continued to climb slightly towards high levels. In some regions, cyclohexanone market prices were raised again, with an increase of about 100 yuan/ton. As of December 5th, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Shandong, China is around 9100-9200 yuan/ton, the reference market price for cyclohexanone in Inner Mongolia is around 9000-9100 yuan/ton, and the reference market price for cyclohexanone in South China is around 9400 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost: Currently, the pure benzene and cyclohexane markets for cyclohexanone raw materials continue to operate upwards, providing strong cost support for cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone market trend is moving upwards with the trend of raw materials.

In terms of supply and demand: Currently, the on-site supply of cyclohexanone is concentrated at a relatively high level, and the on-site low prices are gradually decreasing. The supply side has a good mentality, and the downstream market demand is stable, with rigid procurement being the main focus.

In terms of upstream cyclohexane: In early December, the overall market situation for upstream cyclohexane remained stable with a slightly strong trend. The atmosphere for cyclohexane negotiations in Shandong was good, and manufacturers actively shipped goods at a price reference of around 6500-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream pure benzene: Entering December, the upstream pure benzene market has been steadily rising. On December 4th, the reference price of pure benzene market was 7643 yuan/ton, with a five-day increase of 4.16%.

In terms of downstream caprolactam: In the first week of December, the market for downstream caprolactam also rose. On December 4th, the reference price of caprolactam was 11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.27% compared to December 1st (11060.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the cyclohexanone market is mild, the mentality of the industry is good, and the transmission between supply and demand is still good. The cyclohexanone data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly operate steadily and positively, and more attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7641.67 yuan/ton. In November, the cyclohexane market operated weakly, with prices showing a downward trend. Currently, the market transaction price remains at around 7500 yuan/ton, with sufficient supply of cyclohexane in the market and slow downstream consumption. The overall market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

2、 Market analysis

Market wise: At the end of November, the cyclohexane market showed a slight rebound with a narrow upward trend in prices. The auction price of cyclohexane in Shandong region increased, and downstream factories purchased according to demand. Currently, the cost support for cyclohexane is average. In November, the pure benzene market first fell and then rose, with negotiated prices around 7400 yuan/ton. Port shipments were active, but inventory accumulation did not meet expectations. Currently, the supply of pure benzene in the market continues to increase, and there is a possibility of a decline in pure benzene prices,.

Downstream: The shipment volume of caprolactam in the downstream is good, and the price is running strong. There is a slight shortage in the supply side. Currently, the overall operating rate is relatively stable, and inventory consumption is normal without pressure. Cost support still exists. Overall, the supply side of the caprolactam market remains tight, and it is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream price of cyclohexane is generally supported, and downstream shipments are good. However, the supply of cyclohexane is relatively loose, and the overall market is in a supply-demand balance. In the short term, cyclohexane will maintain its current trend.

In November, the domestic ABS market remained stagnant and consolidated, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various grades. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11487.5 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the beginning of the month.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: After the domestic ABS industry’s operating rate increased in November, it slightly fell back, and the industry’s load level has increased compared to the end of October. In the first half of the month, Tianjin Dagu, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical all resumed work or experienced an increase in load. In the latter half of the month, maintenance was gradually released, and the industry’s operating rate decreased to around 71%, still up 4% from the end of October. Although the domestic weekly average production remained above 120000 tons at the end of the month, the overall pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged, but there has been some digestion in terms of inventory. The position has dropped by more than 10000 tons to around 178000 tons. Overall, the negative impact of the supply side on ABS spot prices has narrowed in November.

Cost factor: In November, the upstream three materials of ABS showed varying trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. Among them, the acrylonitrile market saw a significant increase in the early stage. The favorable news of the shutdown and maintenance of acrylonitrile factories in East China, such as Anqing Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO, and Jiangsu Sierbang, has been released, and market prices have surged due to tight supply. However, the downward transmission of prices is difficult, and the expected recovery of supply in the north may limit the room for further price increases.

The butadiene market has significantly declined within the range, with a monthly decline of 21.5%. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has been weak throughout the month, with a lack of support on the demand side. In addition, new facilities have been put into operation in Tianjin, and the inventory of ports in East China is also high, with negative factors flooding the market. As prices fell, some purchases were stimulated to enter and form a bottoming out, and the decline slightly slowed down by the end of the month. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

Since November, the styrene market has fluctuated slightly. The remote upstream crude oil has slightly fluctuated, while the direct raw material prices have remained firm, and the cost support for styrene is still acceptable. The operating rate of domestic industries remains low, and the tight supply situation continues. In addition, the inventory positions of various ports have been digested, and the expected decrease in imported goods to ports at the end of the month. At present, the bullish trend dominates the market, and styrene may still strengthen in the short term.

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand in November generally continued to be weak, and the market sentiment remained strong this month. In the second half of the month, due to the shopping festival and subsidy policies stimulating the sales of some end products, demand slightly increased. Due to the concerns of home appliance exporters about the remote market, some export demand has been pushed forward, the overall load position of factories has rebounded, terminal stocking willingness has strengthened, and procurement operations have increased synchronously. Merchants take advantage of the situation to digest inventory, try to raise prices through quotations, and increase the activity of source circulation. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

Future forecast

The domestic ABS market in November mainly experienced consolidation. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has stopped rising and rebounded, and the inventory of finished products has been partially digested but still remains at a high level. At the end of the month, the demand on the demand side has strengthened, and the market has remained stable and strong under the guidance of consumption. However, the supply contraction within the market is limited, and coupled with the risk of overdrawn future consumption due to export demand, ABS analysts from Shengyi Society believe that price changes may not be significant in the short term, and it is expected that the ABS market will explore a narrow range to find a market equilibrium point in the future.