After the holiday, the price of plasticizer DOP surged and then fell back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9238.75 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased compared to the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton on October 1st, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The post holiday economic recovery, coupled with the replenishment of plasticizers after the holiday, has led to an increase in demand for DOP and a rise in DOP prices. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises has increased, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers; With the end of inventory replenishment and a decline in demand, coupled with a slower than expected economic recovery, the price of plasticizer DOP has fallen from a high level. The price of plasticizer DOP rose sharply and then fell back.

Downstream demand is expected to rebound

Positive policies, rising macroeconomic sentiment, downstream market recovery, and expected increase in demand for plasticizers in the market; After the holiday, there was a temporary increase in demand for plasticizers due to restocking.

The cost of raw materials has risen sharply and then fallen back

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.05% compared to the price of 8706.67 yuan/ton on October 1st. Economic expectations are expected to rebound, and demand for isooctanol is expected to rebound. In addition, after the holiday, isooctanol stocks will be replenished, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol prices. As the replenishment ends and the economic recovery falls short of expectations, demand is expected to decline, and the high price of isooctanol is expected to drop.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7387.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 2.60% compared to the price of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st. Downstream demand is expected to rebound, with an increase in market inquiries and a shift in the focus of the phthalic anhydride market. In addition, post holiday restocking has led to a volatile rise in phthalic anhydride prices. The price of industrial naphthalene has risen, supported by the cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has also risen, providing support for the price of neighboring naphthalene phthalic anhydride. The actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market are limited, and there is still downward pressure on the phthalic anhydride market. The price of phthalic anhydride has fallen from a high level.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, the prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; On the demand side, favorable policies have led to an increase in downstream market demand, resulting in higher expectations for the demand side of the plasticizer market. In addition, post holiday restocking has led to an increase in the price of plasticizer DOP. In the future, due to policy influence, the demand for DOP plasticizers in the market is relatively warm in the short term. Whether the policy can bring substantial improvement still needs to be verified. In the medium and long term, the plasticizer market mainly affects prices through supply and demand relationships, and the supply and demand in the plasticizer market are relatively balanced. It is expected that the price of DOP plasticizers will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 30th, the reference price for the domestic silicon metal # 441 market was 11960 yuan/ton. Compared with September 23rd (the market price for silicon metal # 441 was 11980 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17%.

According to the market analysis system of the business community, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic silicon metal # 441 market as a whole showed a slight weakness and decline. The overall performance of downstream demand for silicon metal is average, and the market support provided by the demand side is limited. In some regions, the silicon metal market has narrowly lowered its shipping prices, with the market price of silicon metal # 441 dropping by 50-100 yuan/ton. On September 30th, the price reference for metal silicon # 441 in Huangpu Port area of China was around 11800-11900 yuan/ton, and the price reference for metal silicon # 441 in Kunming area of China was around 12000-12200 yuan/ton.

Regarding construction: Currently, the overall construction rate of the domestic silicon metal market has not adjusted significantly. The overall operating level of metallic silicon in Xinjiang is still relatively high. According to incomplete statistics, the proportion of metallic silicon production capacity in Xinjiang is about 75%, with a weekly output of about 40000 tons (923-929). The weekly operating rate is basically the same as the previous week, maintaining around 82-83%. The weekly production in Yunnan region is around 7700 tons, and the weekly operating rate is basically the same as last week, with a stable operating rate of around 90%. The weekly production of metallic silicon in Sichuan region is around 4600 tons, and the weekly operating rate is around 70%, which is basically the same as the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand: As the National Day holiday approaches, some silicon companies are not willing to lower their prices due to the overall low market prices. In addition, some have executed previous orders, and the pressure on spot supply is still acceptable. In terms of downstream demand, the overall demand for silicon metal in the downstream market is generally boosted, and a small number of stocking users provide weak support to the market.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and the mentality of industry players is calm. The overall volatility in the market is limited. The metal silicon data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8300 yuan/ton on September 1st, and the average price was 8241 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a price drop of 0.70% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10383 yuan/ton on September 1st, and the average price was 10500 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a price increase of 1.12% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8175 yuan/ton on September 1st, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 30th, with a price drop of 0.61% during this period.

The polyethylene market in September fluctuated, with high-pressure products showing strong performance and linear and low-pressure products showing poor performance. The supply is loose, and inventory is higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, September is the peak season for demand, with an increase in operating rates, but overall demand is lower than in previous years. The release of macro positive policies has boosted market sentiment and boosted the polyethylene market. The demand for agricultural film and pipes in October is in the peak season, with positive expectations, and it is expected that polyethylene will experience weak fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6800 yuan/ton, which is 2.41% higher than the reference average price of 6640 yuan/ton on September 1st.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6966 yuan/ton, which is 1.70% higher than the reference average price of 6850 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the domestic phosphoric acid market prices showed a strong upward trend. In the first half of September, the phosphoric acid market showed an upward trend due to rising costs and tight supply. In the second half of September, the market price of phosphoric acid remained stagnant and mainly stabilized.

Market quotation

As of September 29th, the factory price of 85% industrial phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6850-7000 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6770-7000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6950-7050 yuan/ton.

Cost end

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. In the first half of September, the market price of yellow phosphorus showed a strong upward trend. Enterprises are mainly reluctant to sell and prioritize placing preliminary orders. In the second half of September, the market price of yellow phosphorus fell. The market trading atmosphere is not good, with poor pre holiday shipments and downstream price cutting procurement as the main focus.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The market price of phosphate ore remained stable at a high level in September, with tight supply in some areas, and the main focus was on issuing preliminary orders. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will remain stable in the short term.

Supply and demand side

This month, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is tight, and there is a shortage of spot goods. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and procurement is more cautious. Downstream enterprises have basically finished stocking up before the holiday, and there is currently no significant fluctuation in the market situation.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the phosphate market has been stagnant, consolidating, and operating recently. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, and cost support has weakened. But the market supply is still tight, and there is some support on the supply side. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly experience price consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 926 yuan/ton on September 1st, and 883 yuan/ton on September 27th. The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 4.65% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and declined in September. In the first half of September, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises has decreased. Downstream demand has weakened, inquiries have decreased, and there is a resistance to high prices. The export market did not meet expectations, coupled with the decline in urea prices, which has a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. In the second half of September, the market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and fell. Before the holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm was not high, and market inquiries decreased, resulting in a wait-and-see attitude. The export sector is mainly supported by essential needs, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 860 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 860-910 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate experienced a significant decline in September, with the largest drop occurring in the week of September 2nd at -0.55%.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market demand for ammonium sulfate has been poor recently, with downstream price cutting purchases and limited market transactions, with mostly low-priced transactions. There is currently no positive news before the holiday, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.