According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend remained stable in May. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3870 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 3870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a year-on-year decrease of 3.97%.

In May, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market remained stable, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable. Recently, the supply of goods on site was normal, and the downstream procurement situation was average. The market price of ammonium nitrate was mainly stable. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the purchasing atmosphere in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has cooled down. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been mainly fluctuating recently. As of the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5300-5500 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3600-3800 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

In May, the domestic price trend of concentrated nitric acid slightly declined, with an average price of 1830 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.44% from the initial price of 1856.67 yuan/ton. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer a price range of 1800-1900 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer a price range of 1800-2000 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, with a slight increase in cost trends. The market mainly relies on orders, and the transaction situation is not good. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased. As a result, the price of ammonium nitrate in the market has not changed much.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia slightly increased in May, with a price of 3100 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.91% compared to the price of 2983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In early May, some equipment underwent maintenance, and the supply side was relatively tight. Coupled with active downstream urea production, the amount of ammonia released decreased. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is high, agricultural demand procurement is still acceptable, industrial demand remains in demand, and the trend of the liquid ammonia market is on the rise. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3050-3150 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is stable due to the impact of rising costs.

Recently, the downstream civil explosive industry’s procurement has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer is average. The price trend of nitric acid has declined, and the liquid ammonia market in May has slightly increased. The positive and negative factors are shared, and the ammonium nitrate analyst from Business Society believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may slightly decrease.

The price of boric acid has been weak and stable recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market is 7275 yuan/ton. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 6700 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated), with mainstream prices ranging from 6900 to 6950 yuan/ton based on sales volume.

In terms of overseas imported goods, the current foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of imported boric acid is 7618.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the market average price of 7624 yuan/ton in early May

The price of boric acid began to decline from its high point in June 2022, and began to bottom out and fluctuate horizontally in May 2023. Currently, it is still operating in the range of bottom box fluctuations. If there is no positive news, it is expected to be difficult to change in the short term.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been positive, with most brand prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 28th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13125 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of 3.35% from the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market has been experiencing weak fluctuations in recent weeks. In the early stage, the foreign situation was unstable, and the amount of methanol arriving at the port was affected. Recently, the supply at the port has gradually recovered, and the equipment in the northwest production area has gradually recovered. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the methanol market has increased, with average buying gas and mainly price fluctuations and declines, weakening the support for POM costs.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has significantly decreased, and the overall load has decreased from 62%. Previously, Shenhua Ningmei and Xinjiang Guoye entered maintenance, resulting in a contraction in supply. At the same time, after digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, the impact of the increase in imported materials from Seranis has led to strong confidence among manufacturers and an active increase in pricing. Overall, supply side support is still acceptable.

In terms of demand:

The load variation of downstream POM enterprises in China is limited, approximately 60%. The stocking situation requires immediate delivery to maintain production. Recently, there have been some orders released to chase up prices, but small orders are generally the main focus. At present, the main logic of the terminal factory is to maintain and digest inventory, and due to production restrictions in the later stage, the procurement operation may be maintained with caution. At present, the overall consumption level of the market is still acceptable, and it is expected that the market will return to a weak trend in the future. Overall, the demand side’s support for spot prices of POM is average.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market has shown an upward trend recently. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and the expected supply of goods in the future has recovered. The pressure on the supply side is not obvious, and downstream consumption remains in high demand. It is expected that the future market will stabilize and consolidate.

This Saturday, the market price of fluoropropylene remained weak and stable. The follow-up of downstream inquiries and procurement is average, and the transaction atmosphere is average. According to the data monitoring system of Shengyishe, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of hexafluoropropylene in Shengyishe was 35875.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

Raw material side: Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has remained stable, with slightly lower production of hydrofluoric acid units. There are still units waiting for market shutdown on site, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased. The production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 24th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Business Society was 11740.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.03% compared to the beginning of this month (11620.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream market is relatively quiet, with poor demand, and the focus is on purchasing for essential needs.

Business Society’s hexafluoropropylene analyst predicts that due to the recent high cost support of hexafluoropropylene, downstream market demand is poor, and on-demand procurement is affected, it is expected that the hexafluoropropylene market will operate weakly and steadily in the near future. More attention should be paid to market news guidelines.

In mid to early May, the price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak

This week, the price of ethylene glycol has stabilized from a previous decline and turned to recover. According to data from Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4513.33 yuan/ton, which is 1.73% higher than the average price of 4436.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 17th. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4450-4600 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4250 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer spot prices of 4400-4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of ethylene glycol price operation in May

In early May, there was news of the resumption of overseas equipment trading in the market, with abundant expectations for overseas import growth. Coupled with a downward shift in downstream polyester production rates, demand expectations weakened, and market sentiment was low.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has started to stabilize, mainly due to changes in the news. There have been production cuts and supply contraction in the overseas Middle East and North America, and the forecast for arrival at the port has decreased, breaking the previous expectation of import increment; In addition, the domestic ethylene plant maintains a low operating rate, and the production of synthetic gas continues to decline, bringing certain benefits to the domestic supply side. This week, driven by market sentiment in the polyester sector, the price of ethylene glycol has slightly increased.