Since September, the asphalt market has been continuously bottoming out. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of asphalt in Shandong region was 3520 yuan/ton on September 1st, and on September 24th, the market in Shandong region fell to 3410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9%. The second round of decline is mainly due to poor demand.

On the demand side, demand remains weak and at a historically low level compared to the same period. Last week, typhoons made concentrated landfall in the southern region, and after experiencing “Capricorn” and “Beibijia”, demand gradually encountered obstacles from south to north. The shipment volume in East China, North China, and Shandong decreased, and the construction of downstream terminals in East China was affected by the typhoon weather, resulting in a slowdown in refinery shipments; The construction demand for projects in Shandong and North China has decreased, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the shipment volume has decreased. Poor payment collection from construction sites, poor stocking enthusiasm of operators, and a strong bearish attitude towards spot prices. Yesterday, spot prices of asphalt in Northeast, North, Shandong, and East China regions all experienced a decline.

On the cost side, US commercial crude oil inventories are still at a five-year low, while Cushing crude oil inventories are approaching the critical point of historical low inventories. In addition, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and OPEC+has announced the postponement of production increases and flexible interventions to provide support for oil prices.

On the supply side, the pressure on the asphalt supply side is limited, and there is a possibility of a low-level increase in production. Last week, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company suspended production intermittently, resulting in a loss of 2 million tons/year of production capacity. Qilu Petrochemical has maintained stable production of asphalt, while Jinling Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical have slightly increased production, leading to an overall increase in operating rate. According to the production plan of local refineries in October, the domestic asphalt refining output was 1.33 million tons, an increase of 110000 tons or 9% compared to the previous month. The main refineries slightly reduced their production, but the local refining supply environment has slightly recovered. During the week, there was a significant decrease in social inventory in the Northeast region, mainly due to the shortened construction period of some projects in the area and the increasing willingness of operators to sell at low prices. The Yangtze River Delta region was also affected by typhoons, resulting in a backlog of refinery inventory, which led to an overall increase in factory inventory.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, crude oil has stopped falling, and the cost side has strong support for asphalt. However, the overall demand for asphalt is relatively pessimistic, and the asphalt market is unlikely to improve in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8246 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 8233 yuan/ton on September 24, during which the quotation fell by 0.16%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10350 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 10400 yuan/ton on September 24, with a price increase of 0.48% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8187 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 24, during which the quotation fell by 0.76%.

Recently, the narrow adjustment of polyethylene prices has been the main focus. The cost side support has loosened, and the boost to the polyethylene market is limited. On the supply side, petrochemical inventory has increased. According to data statistics, as of September 23, the plastic two barrel oil storage had 810000 tons, an increase of 35000 tons from last week, a month on month increase of 4.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 40.87%. On the demand side, downstream agricultural film is in the peak season of demand, with continuous increase in operating rates and slow follow-up of greenhouse film orders. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years, with limited support and limited room for growth. Most traders offer discounts for shipments, and downstream transactions are easier with lower prices.

On September 24th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 7844 yuan and closed at 7969 yuan, up 95 yuan, with a high of 7978 yuan and a low of 7834 yuan, up 1.21%. Recently, the polyethylene futures market has fluctuated weakly, providing insufficient support for the spot market.

At the end of the month, enterprises actively destocked and exerted pressure on price increases; As the holiday approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase, and it is expected that the space for polyethylene to rise will be limited, with narrow range operation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20060 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 19860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% and 17.93% compared to the same period last year. On August 25th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.38% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running weakly, and the price of bromine in Shandong region is running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. This week, it is not affected by weather factors, and the rainfall has significantly decreased. The bromine enterprise equipment is operating normally, and the operating rate remains stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. Imports have remained stable at a high level recently. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1384.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1397.67 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 0.96%, which is 28.62% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of plasticizer DOP has significantly increased after the holiday

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8963.75 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 5.44% compared to the DOP price of 8501.25 yuan/ton on September 14th. The price of DOP has significantly increased after the holiday. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises has increased, coupled with stocking up before the National Day holiday, resulting in an increase in downstream demand for plasticizer DOP.

Expected increase in downstream demand

The concentrated maintenance season for the PVC paste resin industry in 2024 has come to an end, and the maintenance losses in the PVC paste resin industry will gradually recover. The production of the PVC paste resin industry will gradually return to stability, and the total supply of the industry will gradually increase, leading to an increase in demand for plasticizers.

The cost of raw materials has significantly increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of isooctanol was 8666.67 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 8.79% compared to the price of 7966.67 yuan/ton on September 15th. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol increased significantly. The production of isooctanol units has gradually resumed, and downstream stocking is concentrated before the National Day holiday. The supply of isooctanol is tight, and the operating rate of downstream plasticizer DOP has increased. The demand for isooctanol has also increased, and the supply and demand in the isooctanol market are tight, resulting in a significant increase in the price of isooctanol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 20th, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries was 7337.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from the price of 7362.50 yuan/ton on September 14th. This week, the price of ortho xylene is 7400 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to before the holiday. The cost of phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, and the phthalic anhydride market is stabilizing. This week, the domestic price for ortho phthalic anhydride is 7200-7400 yuan/ton, while the domestic price for nano phthalic anhydride is 7100-7200 yuan/ton. Domestic phthalic anhydride plants operate at low loads, with frequent shutdowns of naphthalene phthalic anhydride equipment and low load operation of neighboring phthalic anhydride equipment. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers are experiencing tight supply and queuing for shipments, resulting in a tight supply of phthalic anhydride. The upward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices still exists.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has risen significantly this week, the price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of supply, plasticizer DOP manufacturers have increased production, resulting in an increase in DOP supply; Pre holiday stocking and economic recovery have led to an expected increase in demand for plasticizers. The expected price of plasticizer DOP will fluctuate and rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.18% from the reference average price of 2169 yuan/ton on September 13th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

Recently, the domestic urea market prices have fallen. As of September 19th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1820-1855 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1860 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1840 yuan/ton, and in Hubei region it is around 1850 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

This week, the urea market is oversupplied. In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this week. In terms of demand, downstream demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. Purchasing is relatively cautious, with low price transactions being the main focus in the market. The demand for autumn fertilizer market needs to be released.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has been experiencing a narrow downward trend recently, with a small number of transactions in the market. At present, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand, and downstream buyers are seeking lower prices, so demand needs to be improved. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic urea market price will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.