In mid to early May, the price of ethylene glycol was relatively weak

This week, the price of ethylene glycol has stabilized from a previous decline and turned to recover. According to data from Business Society, as of May 24th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4513.33 yuan/ton, which is 1.73% higher than the average price of 4436.67 yuan/ton in the East China market on May 17th. The prices for each region are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4450-4600 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4450 yuan/ton, while the mainstream manufacturers in Central China have a spot price range of 4250 yuan/ton for external execution; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer spot prices of 4400-4500 yuan/ton for external transactions.

Fundamental logic of ethylene glycol price operation in May

In early May, there was news of the resumption of overseas equipment trading in the market, with abundant expectations for overseas import growth. Coupled with a downward shift in downstream polyester production rates, demand expectations weakened, and market sentiment was low.

At present, the price of ethylene glycol has started to stabilize, mainly due to changes in the news. There have been production cuts and supply contraction in the overseas Middle East and North America, and the forecast for arrival at the port has decreased, breaking the previous expectation of import increment; In addition, the domestic ethylene plant maintains a low operating rate, and the production of synthetic gas continues to decline, bringing certain benefits to the domestic supply side. This week, driven by market sentiment in the polyester sector, the price of ethylene glycol has slightly increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 16th to 23rd, the domestic aggregated MDI market price increased from 17366 yuan/ton to 17466 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.58% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.87%, and a year-on-year increase of 14.91%. The domestic aggregated MDI market is on the rise, with limited spot filling and support from market demand orders, causing prices to rise again. The overall social inventory is low, and the supply side has strong support, slowly pushing forward. However, downstream acceptance of current prices has weakened, with digestion and follow-up being the main focus.

On the supply side, the BASF plant in Shanghai will be shut down for maintenance on May 14th, lasting for about a month. On May 21st, the Fujian plant experienced a short shutdown. The shrinking supply of production enterprises is influenced by favorable factors in the supply side.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is operating at a relatively high level. As of May 23rd, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8833.83 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is experiencing a narrow upward trend. As of May 23rd, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyishe is 11705.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of MDI aggregation is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the overall downstream consumption capacity is still acceptable, maintaining a slow follow-up state. Currently, prices have entered a relatively high level, cautious sentiment has increased, purchasing willingness has weakened, and demand is mainly for basic needs. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is influenced by favorable factors.

In the future market forecast, downstream demand follow-up is limited, and the market will mainly digest the increase. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly strong and following up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 22, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 2937.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.11% compared to last Thursday’s price.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has been experiencing a downward trend. Recently, the main raw material methanol market has risen first and then fallen, with strong cost support. The supply and demand face a certain bearish situation in the market, with sufficient supply of goods, but limited follow-up on the demand side. Downstream buyers mainly choose to buy at lower rigid demand, and the intention of holders to offer discounts and take orders has increased. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market has declined. On the 22nd, the mainstream quotation range for industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was between 2600-3000 yuan/ton.

Business Society’s formic acid analysts believe that under the current pressure of supply in the formic acid market, profit margins are being adjusted, and coupled with weak cost support, it is expected that in the short term, the formic acid market may continue to consolidate weakly, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 13th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6020 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.50%, a month on month increase of 1.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.85%. The domestic ethanol market has shown a narrow upward trend with slight regional differences. Individual factories have seen significant price increases, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a decrease in supply, providing support for the mentality of all parties. However, considering the weak demand and weak enthusiasm for receiving new orders, downstream companies continue to be cautious.

In terms of cost, as we entered mid May, the overall price of corn in the Northeast production area remained stable. However, due to the listing of new wheat in some regions, trading entities shifted their focus to new wheat trade, which led to a continuous decline in corn arrival volume. In addition, supported by the reduction of circulating surplus grain at the grassroots level, deep processing enterprises in Shandong, North China, and other regions increased prices and replenished inventory, leading to a sustained rebound in corn market prices. As a result, the overall price of domestic corn market is relatively strong. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Fukang two line maintenance, temporary shutdown of COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol plant for 4 days; Extend the short stop minor repair of the Yushen device, but it may be switched to formal maintenance for one month later. Chifeng Ruiyang resumed as scheduled on May 15th. The resumption of work for factories such as Anhui Carbon Xin, Hongzhan Laha, Hongzhan Bayan, and Zhaodong COFCO is approaching. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the periodic preparation of Baijiu festivals is nearing the end; On the demand side of ethyl acetate, the Yankuang plant is expected to resume full production, the new Tiande plant is expected to restart, and the amount of ethyl acetate is expected to increase. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, there are currently favorable factors supporting the cost and supply sides, with downstream demand mainly relying on demand for replenishment. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation will be mainly focused on observation and consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8474 yuan/ton on May 13, and the average price on May 17 was 8507 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.38% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9800 yuan/ton on May 13th, and the average price on May 17th was 9800 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8637 yuan/ton on May 13th, and the average price on May 17th was 8657 yuan/ton, with a 0.23% increase in quotation during this period.

The polyethylene quotation has slightly increased this week. In terms of supply, maintenance and renovation have resumed in early May, but some companies are still in the maintenance period. Due to a supply gap in some sources, petrochemical companies have slightly increased their factory quotations; Some companies have a strong willingness to raise prices. On the demand side, according to data statistics, as of the week ending May 16th, the operating rate of downstream polyethylene enterprises has decreased by 0.28% compared to the previous week. Among them, the agricultural film industry has entered the off-season of production, with a significant decrease in operating rate and slow follow-up of orders. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, which has insufficient support for polyethylene; There is still support for the high consolidation of crude oil costs.

On May 17th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was opened at 8490 yuan and closed at 8635 yuan, up 162 yuan, with a maximum of 8635 yuan and a minimum of 8490 yuan, up 1.91%. Recently, polyethylene futures have fluctuated and risen, supporting the spot market to some extent.

The maintenance of enterprises in May is still in a centralized maintenance period, and there may still be favorable support on the supply side. On the demand side, agricultural film is in the off-season, and there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of packaging film. It is expected that the upward space for polyethylene is limited, and it may mainly consolidate at a high level.