1、 Price trend

 

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 29th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7641.67 yuan/ton. In November, the cyclohexane market operated weakly, with prices showing a downward trend. Currently, the market transaction price remains at around 7500 yuan/ton, with sufficient supply of cyclohexane in the market and slow downstream consumption. The overall market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Market wise: At the end of November, the cyclohexane market showed a slight rebound with a narrow upward trend in prices. The auction price of cyclohexane in Shandong region increased, and downstream factories purchased according to demand. Currently, the cost support for cyclohexane is average. In November, the pure benzene market first fell and then rose, with negotiated prices around 7400 yuan/ton. Port shipments were active, but inventory accumulation did not meet expectations. Currently, the supply of pure benzene in the market continues to increase, and there is a possibility of a decline in pure benzene prices,.

 

Downstream: The shipment volume of caprolactam in the downstream is good, and the price is running strong. There is a slight shortage in the supply side. Currently, the overall operating rate is relatively stable, and inventory consumption is normal without pressure. Cost support still exists. Overall, the supply side of the caprolactam market remains tight, and it is expected to maintain the current trend in the short term.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the upstream price of cyclohexane is generally supported, and downstream shipments are good. However, the supply of cyclohexane is relatively loose, and the overall market is in a supply-demand balance. In the short term, cyclohexane will maintain its current trend.

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In November, the domestic ABS market remained stagnant and consolidated, with narrow fluctuations in spot prices for various grades. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 11487.5 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as the beginning of the month.

 

Fundamental analysis

 

Supply level: After the domestic ABS industry’s operating rate increased in November, it slightly fell back, and the industry’s load level has increased compared to the end of October. In the first half of the month, Tianjin Dagu, Jilin Petrochemical, and Zhejiang Petrochemical all resumed work or experienced an increase in load. In the latter half of the month, maintenance was gradually released, and the industry’s operating rate decreased to around 71%, still up 4% from the end of October. Although the domestic weekly average production remained above 120000 tons at the end of the month, the overall pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged, but there has been some digestion in terms of inventory. The position has dropped by more than 10000 tons to around 178000 tons. Overall, the negative impact of the supply side on ABS spot prices has narrowed in November.

 

Cost factor: In November, the upstream three materials of ABS showed varying trends, with overall support for ABS costs being average. Among them, the acrylonitrile market saw a significant increase in the early stage. The favorable news of the shutdown and maintenance of acrylonitrile factories in East China, such as Anqing Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO, and Jiangsu Sierbang, has been released, and market prices have surged due to tight supply. However, the downward transmission of prices is difficult, and the expected recovery of supply in the north may limit the room for further price increases.

 

The butadiene market has significantly declined within the range, with a monthly decline of 21.5%. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has been weak throughout the month, with a lack of support on the demand side. In addition, new facilities have been put into operation in Tianjin, and the inventory of ports in East China is also high, with negative factors flooding the market. As prices fell, some purchases were stimulated to enter and form a bottoming out, and the decline slightly slowed down by the end of the month. Overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

 

Since November, the styrene market has fluctuated slightly. The remote upstream crude oil has slightly fluctuated, while the direct raw material prices have remained firm, and the cost support for styrene is still acceptable. The operating rate of domestic industries remains low, and the tight supply situation continues. In addition, the inventory positions of various ports have been digested, and the expected decrease in imported goods to ports at the end of the month. At present, the bullish trend dominates the market, and styrene may still strengthen in the short term.

 

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand in November generally continued to be weak, and the market sentiment remained strong this month. In the second half of the month, due to the shopping festival and subsidy policies stimulating the sales of some end products, demand slightly increased. Due to the concerns of home appliance exporters about the remote market, some export demand has been pushed forward, the overall load position of factories has rebounded, terminal stocking willingness has strengthened, and procurement operations have increased synchronously. Merchants take advantage of the situation to digest inventory, try to raise prices through quotations, and increase the activity of source circulation. Overall, the demand side has slightly improved its market support.

 

Future forecast

 

The domestic ABS market in November mainly experienced consolidation. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has stopped rising and rebounded, and the inventory of finished products has been partially digested but still remains at a high level. At the end of the month, the demand on the demand side has strengthened, and the market has remained stable and strong under the guidance of consumption. However, the supply contraction within the market is limited, and coupled with the risk of overdrawn future consumption due to export demand, ABS analysts from Shengyi Society believe that price changes may not be significant in the short term, and it is expected that the ABS market will explore a narrow range to find a market equilibrium point in the future.

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In November 2024, the weekly closing price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam, an upstream raw material for nylon filament, saw a narrow increase, with little support from the cost side; During the month, some nylon filament manufacturers have lowered their equipment load due to increased inventory levels, while new production can continue to be released. However, the increase in on-site supply is limited, and the overall market supply has decreased, but inventory levels have increased and supply side support is average; The demand performance in the textile terminal market is weak, downstream manufacturers’ shipments are not ideal, finished product inventory is high, and it is difficult to improve the enthusiasm for raw material procurement. Multi dimensional support for rigid demand follow-up has not improved on the demand side. Overall, the upstream raw material market price of nylon filament has slightly increased, with an increase in on-site inventory. Downstream manufacturers have shown low purchasing enthusiasm, and the nylon filament market is operating weakly and steadily, with prices fluctuating slightly.

 

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in November 2024, the market price of nylon filament remained stable with small fluctuations, and the price fluctuated. As of November 29, 2024, the price of nylon filament DTY (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region is 17300 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.35%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 14700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the beginning of the month. The price of nylon FDY (premium: 40D/12F) is quoted at 18200 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the month.

 

Supply demand: In November, the overall supply of nylon filament market decreased. During the month, the newly added production capacity in the nylon fiber market was released, and some manufacturers’ equipment was operating at a reduced load, resulting in a narrow decrease in on-site supply. However, downstream markets held onto rigid demand orders, but inventory levels increased.

 

In terms of cost: During the month, the weekly settlement price of Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam continued to rise, but the market for high-speed spinning of nylon PA6 chips lacked upward momentum, and the market price trend of raw materials was inconsistent, with limited support on the cost side.

 

2、 Future forecast

 

There is an upward expectation in the market prices of raw material caprolactam and PA6 slices, and the cost support is improving; The on-site supply may not fluctuate significantly, and December will enter the traditional off-season for demand. Downstream yarn factories may still maintain their demand for essential goods, making it difficult for the demand side to show significant improvement. At the end of December, there is a possibility of early holiday in the downstream market, and the demand may decrease. Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the price of nylon filament market will rise narrowly, with an expected increase of 200-300 yuan/ton.

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Recently (11.19-11.27), the market price of Shunding rubber has significantly declined. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 13360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.99% from 14680 yuan/ton on November 19th. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production slightly increased; Downstream all steel tire production has slightly decreased. The supply price of Shunding rubber suppliers has been lowered, and merchant offers have been adjusted. As of November 27th, the mainstream price in East China is 13250-13600 yuan/ton.

 

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the price of butadiene was 9675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.09% from 10087 yuan/ton on November 19th.

 

Recently (11.19-11.27), the domestic butadiene rubber plant started production at 6.40%, with stable to moderate fluctuations.

 

Demand side: Downstream tires mainly provide essential support for the butadiene rubber market. As of November 22, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.3%.

 

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will continue to fall, and the cost center of butadiene rubber will shift downwards; Recently, downstream production has remained relatively stable, but there is resistance to high priced sources of goods. Overall, the Shunding rubber market may experience weak adjustments in the short term.

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Aluminum prices fall in November

 

Aluminum prices remained strong in early November, showing a strong performance, but have recently fallen back. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27, 2024, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20553.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.37% from the market average price of 21720 yuan/ton on November 8.

 

Positive factors for aluminum prices

 

1. The downward space for aluminum prices has narrowed

 

At present, the absolute price of aluminum ingots is not small, but the actual profit is not significant, and enterprises that do not extract aluminum oxide are experiencing significant losses. Mainly due to the high price of upstream alumina, most of the industry chain profits are allocated to alumina. Affected by the high price of alumina, the average cost price of electrolytic aluminum in China has exceeded 21000 yuan/ton, and the production of a single aluminum ingot is in a state of industry loss. Based on the promotion of industrial integration in the aluminum industry, overall, the comprehensive profit of alumina aluminum ingots aluminum materials is still high, and the expected reduction in production in the short term is not significant. However, enterprises with a large amount of external alumina mining face considerable pressure. Based on cost considerations, the downward space for aluminum prices has narrowed.

 

2. Good domestic supply and demand data for aluminum ingots

 

Overseas imports: The import window for electrolytic aluminum continues to close, leading to a downward shift in Shanghai. Import profits are negative, approaching -2000 yuan/ton. There is no expected increase in overseas supply.

 

Domestic supply: In terms of electrolytic aluminum production, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum remains around 830000 tons; Inventory data shows that as of November 25th, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum in China’s major markets was 550000 tons, an increase of 60000 tons from 610000 tons on October 31st. As of November 21, the inventory of China’s electrolytic aluminum plant area was 67000 tons, which was 56000 tons compared to October 31, with a cumulative inventory of 9000 tons. The aluminum ingots will be sold out of stock as a whole in November.

 

Negative factors in aluminum prices

 

1. There is an expectation of weakening export demand

 

On November 15, 2024, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on adjusting the export tax rebate policy. Starting from December 1, 2024, all export tax rebates for aluminum products will be cancelled, involving 24 tax codes such as aluminum strips, aluminum foils, aluminum tubes, aluminum tube accessories, and some aluminum bar profiles.

 

The partial 301 tariff policy of the United States came into effect on September 27th. This includes a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, a 50% tariff on Chinese solar cells, and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, aluminum, electric vehicle batteries, and key minerals.

 

The cancellation of export tax rebates for downstream aluminum products in China and the implementation of some 301 tariff policies in the United States. Prior to this, under the guidance of the new US president and tax increase policies, the overseas landing costs of exported products have been raised from a domestic perspective. The export demand of the aluminum industry chain is expected to weaken.

 

2. Doubts about the sustainability of cost support

 

Although the short-term cost support for aluminum ingots remains strong, the sustainability of cost support is questionable. The fundamentals of proximal alumina remain favorable, but it has also been reflected in prices, with even alumina prices exceeding expectations and experiencing excessive increases. Currently, the profit window for alumina exports is gradually closing, and due to high prices, there will be more production capacity in the future, and long-term excess pressure will gradually emerge; The risk of alumina price pullback has increased, and the cost support risk of aluminum ingot prices has intensified.

 

Overall, in the short term, domestic aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate weakly, with an increased probability of sideways movement.

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