Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 7th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.1% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly decreased this week. On May 7th, the price of mixed xylene was 3250 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% from last week. The demand for mixed xylene blending is relatively weak, and as of the end of April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 6.9. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for the toluene mixed xylene unit in May and June, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid price remained stable this week. On May 7th, the price of acetic acid was 32500 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from last week. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has returned to a relatively high level, and the supply of goods from suppliers is sufficient. Enterprises actively allocate inventory before the holiday, but the market atmosphere is relatively weak after the holiday.

In terms of demand

The operating rate of downstream factories has also increased, the demand side has improved, the focus of negotiations has increased, and the enthusiasm of operators has increased. The polyester factory consumes more inventory and long-term supply, resulting in an increase in terminal pick-up speed after the holiday.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the recent release of bearish news in the crude oil market has weakened the cost support for isophthalic acid. But the downstream demand center is improving, providing support for prices. It is expected that there is still room for upward movement in the market price of isophthalic acid.

Recently, there has been no positive news to support the overall market atmosphere, with stable price operation as the main focus. Downstream delivery is mostly wait-and-see. As of May 6th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe is 9375.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of this month.

In terms of market conditions:

The recent weak consolidation of the ethyl acrylate market. The market has a strong bearish mentality, with the cost side continuing to weaken and the market supply being sufficient. In addition, some early parking devices have plans to operate, and downstream and traders are more cautious. The enthusiasm for buying goods is poor, and the market continues to accelerate downward, making it difficult for prices to rise.

The mainstream receiving price in the East China market for this period (4.29-5.6) is around 8900-9100 yuan/ton; The mainstream ex factory price in South China ranges from 9000 to 9200 yuan/ton; The mainstream ex factory price in North China is around 9100-9300 yuan/ton.

In March, the import volume of ethyl acrylate in China was 320.05 tons, a month on month increase of 128.77%, with a total import price of 473892 US dollars. The export volume was 2748.9 tons, a month on month increase of 16.75%, and the total export price was 3259174 US dollars.

Summary and prediction:

The overall trend of ethyl acrylate spot prices is weak. After the holiday, there is good news coming out downstream, and the atmosphere has slightly improved. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual landing of each unit, and some of the ethyl acrylate units that have been shut down have plans to start operating, so the overall market is still difficult to rise. Business Society analysts predict that in the near future, the narrow consolidation of the ethyl acrylate market will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride in April was upward. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7190.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 2.71% from 7000.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.

In terms of supply: In April, the downstream unsaturated resin market fluctuated and rose. In addition, resin replenishment before the May Day holiday supported the maleic anhydride market. The prices of the main maleic anhydride factories continued to rise, and the market situation followed suit. The main factory of maleic anhydride mainly executes preliminary orders, and the factory has no pressure to sign orders; At the end of the month, with the basic completion of unsaturated resin stocking, the prices of the main factories of maleic anhydride have fallen slightly. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. As of April 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6300 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The hydrogenated benzene market rose in the first half of April and fluctuated in the second half of the month. In the first half of April, the production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises started relatively well, and the supply was relatively stable. In the second half of the month, raw material prices continued to rise, resulting in lower profits for enterprises. The production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has significantly declined, and some enterprises have plans to repair and park in the future. The market expects a tightening of supply in the future. As demand approaches the end of the month, some downstream enterprises have reported parking plans, and the market expects a decline in future demand, which has a certain impact on the market atmosphere. At the end of the month, the hydrogenated benzene market followed a slight decline in pure benzene.

In April, the international crude oil market fluctuated, with the domestic naphtha market rising and then falling, and the market price of n-butane rising and then falling. As of April 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5200-5300 yuan/ton.

Downstream: In April, the raw material market for unsaturated resin rose, supporting the cost of unsaturated resin. The unsaturated resin market fluctuated and rose, but the circulation of unsaturated resin in the market was slow, with little change in supply and demand, and overall market trading was average; At the end of the month, the market for unsaturated resin raw materials has fallen, with limited support for the cost of unsaturated resin. The unsaturated resin market is mainly stable, and there is currently no obvious willingness to stock downstream, continuing to focus on essential procurement.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that currently, downstream unsaturated resins have been completed before the holiday, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market. The factory prices of major factories have declined, and there has been no significant improvement in the signing of orders; The new production capacity of maleic anhydride is put into operation, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the market may increase. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation after the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market saw a significant increase in April. As of April 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile from the tank was 10850 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.91% from 9962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Narrow consolidation of raw material propylene prices, slight decrease in liquid ammonia prices, and weak cost support for acrylonitrile; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, continues to experience a slight decline in production, with weak support from demand for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production remains low, providing strong support for the market; As of the 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile from the tank in East China was between 10800 and 11000 yuan/ton.

In April, the load of the acrylonitrile unit fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate remained around 6.2%.

In April, the price of raw material propylene narrowed and the price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, resulting in weak support for the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the domestic propylene price was 6794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from 6848 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 29th, the domestic liquid ammonia price was 2983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% from 3073 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month

Downstream demand for acrylonitrile is weakly supported. In April, the equipment load in the ABS industry continued to decline, with the start of production dropping from 6.2% at the beginning of the month to around 5.7% at the end of the month; The production of nitrile rubber units slightly decreased in April, and there are still maintenance plans for the units in May, which weakens the support for demand for acrylonitrile; The overall production of acrylamide in March remained at a low level of around 4.6%; Overall, downstream demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that there is not much pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile at present, but there may be equipment resumption in the later stage, which will increase the supply side; Weak fluctuations in raw material prices and weak cost support for acrylonitrile; The demand for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened again, and overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fall from a high level in May.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline, with most spot prices being lowered. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 28th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14637.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.10% compared to April 21st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam continued to decline this week. The price consolidation of raw material pure benzene is weak, and the cost support is average. In terms of supply, some maintenance companies in the early stage have gradually resumed work and returned, with weekly production continuing to rise and supply pressure increasing. The supply of caprolactam in the market is sufficient, but downstream demand is limited, which weakens the cost support for PA6.

In terms of supply: This week, the load of PA6 production enterprises has narrowed from a high level, with an average operating rate of around 81%, and the production level has basically remained flat compared to the previous horizontal trend. At the end of the month, the market had abundant supply of goods, and the overall support from suppliers for PA6 spot goods was average.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the recent decline in production in the main downstream industries. The operating rate of spinning is less than 80%, and the weaving load is stable at 70%. As the holiday approaches, some stocking needs are being released. However, due to the recent decline in PA6 prices, downstream enterprises are cautious in stocking up. On exchange trading has rebounded in a cautious atmosphere, supporting a narrow increase in demand for PA6.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market continued to decline this week. The price of caprolactam continues to decline, and the support for the cost side of PA6 continues to weaken. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable and there is little fluctuation, and the demand for May Day storage by terminal enterprises is gradually being released. Overall, the current market is characterized by a mix of long and short positions, and it is expected that the PA6 market may return to a calm consolidation trend before the holiday.