According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from January 13th to 17th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8471 yuan/ton to 8442 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.34% during the period, a month on month drop of 1.50%, and a year-on-year drop of 11.53%. Exploring the weakness of the domestic BDO market. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, most downstream factories have reduced their workload or stopped for vacation, resulting in a decrease in the demand side’s digestion of raw materials. However, the supply of BDO is still acceptable, but the pressure of supply and demand has increased. Holding manufacturers have a shipping mentality, and the focus of negotiations is fluctuating downward.

On the supply side, although the Lanshan Tunhe Phase III agent has been replaced, Wanhua and Kaixiang have maintained stable operation after early maintenance and restart of parking devices, resulting in an increase in BDO supply and average support on the supply side. The supply side is affected by bearish factors.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market has maintained stable operation. With the approaching Spring Festival and the increasing expectations of rainy and snowy weather in northern regions, downstream stocking enthusiasm has significantly increased. Recently, there has been a noticeable destocking in Wuhai and Ningxia regions. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating at a high level. As of 3:00 pm on January 17th, the domestic price of methanol in Taicang is 2695 yuan/ton. The market for raw material calcium carbide remains stable and stable, while methanol prices tend to strengthen and consolidate. The cost of BDO is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the terminal spandex production has declined and the market is running weakly, resulting in multiple downstream PTMEG units experiencing load reduction, parking or maintenance expectations, and a decrease in industry load. Other downstream industries such as PBAT, TPU, and PU pulp have also experienced a significant decline in industry load due to poor terminal follow-up. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the operation of the equipment is relatively stable, and the supply side support is average; However, the downstream load of the terminal has declined, which has led to the digestion of inventory of raw materials, and the pre holiday stocking has basically ended, resulting in increased supply and demand pressure. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market has limited volatility.

This week (1.11-1.17), the nickel market rebounded. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, on January 17th, spot nickel was reported at 129075 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.48%.

Macroscopically, China has released its 2024 economic report card, indicating that the country’s economy is operating steadily with progress. The annual gross domestic product was 134908.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The total import and export volume of goods in 2024 was 43846.8 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year. The market expects global economic growth and strong demand for industrial metals, boosting the upward trend of the market.

On the supply side: Indonesia has set the nickel mining quota for 2025 at around 200 million tons, which is 400 million tons less than in 2024. Lunding Mining stated that nickel production will gradually decrease over the next three years. At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, destocking is weak, and the electrolytic nickel market remains loose. On January 17th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 27558 tons, an increase of 100 tons during the week; On January 16th, LME nickel inventory was 167994 tons, an increase of 3684 tons during the week.

In terms of demand, factors such as the approaching Spring Festival and holiday arrangements have weakened the demand in the spot market. The demand for nickel in the fields of essential needs replenishment, alloys, batteries, stainless steel, etc. is expected to maintain growth, but overall activity is still limited.

Market forecast: There is still resistance to the upward movement of nickel prices under inventory pressure, but with production control in the mining sector and expectations of global economic recovery, it is expected that nickel prices may experience strong range fluctuations.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on January 16th: 14900 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On January 16th, the trading volume of titanium dioxide market was light. Recently, the titanium concentrate market has remained stable, with tight supply of goods, and the sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized. At present, the cost pressure on titanium dioxide enterprises remains, and manufacturers’ quotations are mostly firm. The demand for upstream and downstream factories is mainly for urgent procurement, and the willingness to stock up before the holiday is average. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Prediction: In the short term, the titanium dioxide market will continue to operate in a temporarily stable consolidation mode.

In 2024, against the backdrop of prominent supply and demand pressures and weak costs, PVC will perform weakly. The market is generally showing a volatile downward trend. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the total decline last year was 12.13%.

The performance in the first quarter was sluggish, and the overall market showed a narrow range of fluctuations. There were two major market fluctuations during the year: in April and May, due to spring maintenance of supply side equipment and the introduction of real estate stimulus policies; The price of PVC has risen significantly, with an increase of around 500 yuan/ton. At the end of May, PVC prices reached their annual peak, with the highest price exceeding 6000 yuan/ton. The market entered a period of volatile decline from June to August. The second wave of upward trend for the whole year occurred in September and October, mainly due to autumn maintenance and policy factors affecting the rebound of real estate market investment. At the end of the year, the market retreated for two months, and PVC accelerated its downward trend.

Production and demand: The total PVC production in 2024 is approximately 20.4963 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The apparent consumption is about 20.7345 million tons, with a slight decrease compared to the same period. The real estate sector accounts for about 65% of the demand for PVC products, but the sluggish performance of the real estate market has significantly dragged down the demand for PVC.

Capacity change: As of December 2024, the effective production capacity of the PVC industry is 28 million tons. The production plan for 2025 and later includes 200000 tons from Gulf Chemical, 300000 tons from Jintai, 400000 tons from Bohai Development, etc., with a total of 2.5 million tons mainly produced by ethylene method.

Import and export situation: From January to October 2024, the cumulative export volume of PVC powder was 2.171994 million tons, an increase of 13.87% year-on-year; The cumulative import volume was 183200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 42.68%. The Indian market accounts for about 50% of China’s PVC exports, but the anti-dumping investigation in India has a negative impact on domestic exports.

Outlook for 2025

Supply and demand situation: The contradiction between PVC supply and demand will further intensify in 2025, with a large scale of new production capacity added on the supply side, and downstream demand still facing downward pressure from the sluggish real estate investment situation. Difficulty in reducing midstream inventory, maintaining high levels, and continuing the pattern of excess.

In summary, the PVC market in 2024 is expected to experience low-level fluctuations, with prominent supply-demand contradictions and sustained price suppression. In 2025, the PVC market is expected to continue the situation of oversupply, with prices fluctuating between 4800-6200.

The listing price of Sinopec East China is 6050 yuan/ton, and the listing price of Sinopec North China is 6150 yuan/ton. The Shenghong Refining and Chemical Plant has temporarily shut down, and the overall operating rate of the industry has declined, with an operating rate of 80%. Upstream Sinopec East China pure benzene increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the loss of phenol and ketone further expanded. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the negotiated price reference in the East China market is 6150-6200 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price reference in the South China region is 6200-6250 yuan/ton.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on January 14th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 6180./ 180

Shandong region/ 6100./ 50

Yanshan region/ 6150./ 100

South China region/ 6250./ 100