Product Name: PVC

Latest price: 5596 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On March 11th, the PVC spot market price fell, and the overall market trading situation was average. The futures price fell, affecting the confidence of the spot market. Downstream procurement was relatively cautious. The spot market prices have decreased, and the advantage of point pricing has increased.

It is expected that in the short term, the PVC spot market in North China will slightly consolidate and operate within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2190 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 2040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.85%, a decrease of 26.62% compared to the same period last year. On March 7th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 105.13, a decrease of 2.56 points from yesterday, a decrease of 44.41% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 66.48% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been weak this week. The prices of soda ash in Central China are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton. The prices of soda ash in Central China are consolidating, with the mainstream market price of light soda ash around 1900-2100 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of caustic soda this week was around 91%, and the production of caustic soda this week was around 740000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly declined, with an average market price of 21.97 yuan/square meter at the beginning of the week and 21.39 yuan/square meter on the weekend, a price drop of 2.64% and a year-on-year increase of 14.94%. Glass downstream is purchased on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 9th week of 2024 (2.26-3.1), there were a total of 4 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 1 product that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include hydrochloric acid (5.88%), calcium carbide (1.15%), and caustic soda (0.99%); The main commodities falling are: light soda ash (-2.23%) and baking soda (-0.16%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.85%.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure alkali is weak and the supply of spot alkali plants is fluctuating at a high level, and the inventory of enterprises continues to accumulate. In terms of downstream demand, procurement is not active, and multi-dimensional support is needed to replenish inventory. It is expected that there will be weak operating conditions for caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

Plasticizer DBP prices continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 7th, the DBP price was 9425 yuan/ton, a continuous decrease of 2.33% compared to the DBP price of 9650 yuan/ton on February 29th. The raw material n-butanol has significantly decreased, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen, DBP costs have decreased, downstream manufacturers have not recovered well, downstream customers have average purchasing enthusiasm, plasticizer demand is weak, and DBP prices have fluctuated and fallen.

The price of n-butanol has dropped significantly

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 7th, the price of n-butanol was 7933.33 yuan/ton, a significant decrease of 6.85% compared to February 29th, when the price of n-butanol was 8516.67 yuan/ton. Entering March, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued its downward trend from February as a whole. The low-end price of n-butanol is still acceptable for trading, but the overall atmosphere on the market is limited in boosting. The overall supply of n-butanol in Shandong region is loose, and many n-butanol factories are actively offering discounts for shipments. The overall transaction center of n-butanol is constantly moving downwards, and the price of n-butanol has dropped significantly; DBP cost support has decreased.

Isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 7th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12300 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 1.11% compared to February 29th at 12437.50 yuan/ton. The production of isooctanol has resumed, and the supply of isooctanol has increased; The shipment situation of isooctanol factories is average, with downstream low-priced transactions still acceptable, while high priced isooctanol shipments are poor. The focus of isooctanol transactions has shifted downwards, downstream demand is weak, isooctanol prices fluctuate and fall, and the cost of plasticizer DBP has decreased.

Limited downstream demand for new additions

The downstream PVC market is still operating well, and the bulk material orders are generally accepted. The global economic situation has a significant impact on the demand for PVC paste resin. With the recovery of the global economy, especially the growth of emerging markets, the demand for PVC paste resin has correspondingly increased. At present, the PVC factory has received orders until April, with limited new orders in the later period. However, overall production has improved compared to last year, and the overall performance of the bulk materials is still average. After the epidemic, the PVC paste resin market orders have been weak, the overall demand in the PVC market is average, the PVC market situation is weak, and the demand for plasticizer DBP is weak.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that in terms of raw materials: n-butanol has dropped significantly, isooctanol prices have fluctuated and fallen, and DBP raw material costs support has decreased; Plasticizer enterprises resume production, with sufficient supply of DBP; The downstream PVC market is weak, with weak demand for plasticizer DBP, and overall weak supply and demand for DBP. In the future, there is still downward pressure on raw materials such as n-butanol and isooctanol, and the cost support for plasticizer DBP is decreasing; The supply of plasticizer DBP manufacturers in the future is difficult to increase, and downstream PVC demand is expected to rebound. The cost of plasticizer DBP in the future will decrease, supply will decrease, and demand will increase. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DBP in the future will be weak and consolidate.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 6, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1062 yuan/ton. Compared with March 1 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton for phosphate ore), the basic price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early March, the overall domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight upward trend. Some mining enterprises in certain regions of China raised the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore market narrowly, driving the overall focus of negotiations in the phosphate ore market upward. Among them, some mining enterprises in Sichuan increased the price of 30 grade phosphate ore by about 10-30 yuan/ton, while some mining enterprises in Guizhou increased the price of 30 grade phosphate ore by about 20 yuan/ton, The phosphate ore markets in Yunnan and Guangxi regions continue to maintain stable operation, and there are still some mines that have not started construction yet. As of March 6th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the recovery of downstream demand is still relatively slow. The demand support for phosphate ore is generally boosted, but as the weather gradually warms up, downstream demand will continue to be released. The phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate at a high and strong level, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipment.

1、 Price trend

Recently, the PET bottle grade market has rebounded from its decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 5th, the domestic PET bottle grade price was 7250 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% compared to the previous day, and an increase of 0.42% compared to the end of February. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

During the Spring Festival, the demand for crude oil and other products increased, and the prices of PET raw materials continued to rise, leading to an increase in PET costs. However, due to weak cost support, coupled with high PET inventories, and weak demand in the post holiday PET market, the PET market still showed a weak adjustment stage from late February to early March. Prices did not show a clear upward trend, and post holiday terminal demand slowly recovered. Negotiations focused on operating at a lower level, and March ushered in a traditional peak season. “Golden Three Silver Four” is approaching, and multiple sets of polyester plants are restarting plans. In March, PET supply has steadily increased, and demand has gradually recovered. It is expected that there will be further improvement in demand in March.

In terms of cost

From late February to early March, the PET raw material PTA market was in a weak consolidation stage, with market prices mainly fluctuating and adjusting. Moreover, crude oil products that affect the cost side prices also maintained a weak operation. The PTA supply side was relatively stable, and there was no significant downward trend on the cost side. PET had weak support on the cost side and high inventory, so the overall trend was a weak adjustment. Recently, international crude oil prices have risen, with obvious positive support. PET has certain support on the cost side, and downstream demand has gradually recovered, so the PET market has shown a strong trend.

In terms of demand

After the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, the market demand for polyester bottles and chips has obviously recovered, the purchasing atmosphere is positive, and the willingness to pick up goods has been strengthened. At present, the overall PET delivery market has been improving all the way, the inventory side has been consumed normally, the operating rate has been stable, and the profit has also been significantly improved. In addition, the PET packaging and sheet industry has entered the peak season. The decoration season is coming, and the demand has slowly recovered. At present, the overall market shows a sustained and stable growth demand.

3、 Future Market Forecast:

According to PET analysts from Business Society, the current supply of PET spot is relatively sufficient, and terminal demand is slowly increasing. Under the game of cost and supply and demand in the short term, the fluctuation range of PET prices is limited. Operators are cautious and expect the PET market to maintain a strong and volatile operation in the short term. It is necessary to constantly monitor the cost side trend and the inventory consumption situation of factories.