According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from May 13th to 21st, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6020 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.50%, a month on month increase of 1.04%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.85%. The domestic ethanol market has shown a narrow upward trend with slight regional differences. Individual factories have seen significant price increases, with an increase in maintenance equipment and a decrease in supply, providing support for the mentality of all parties. However, considering the weak demand and weak enthusiasm for receiving new orders, downstream companies continue to be cautious.

In terms of cost, as we entered mid May, the overall price of corn in the Northeast production area remained stable. However, due to the listing of new wheat in some regions, trading entities shifted their focus to new wheat trade, which led to a continuous decline in corn arrival volume. In addition, supported by the reduction of circulating surplus grain at the grassroots level, deep processing enterprises in Shandong, North China, and other regions increased prices and replenished inventory, leading to a sustained rebound in corn market prices. As a result, the overall price of domestic corn market is relatively strong. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, there are significant differences in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions; Less than 40% of construction in East China has started; About 80% of the construction in Northeast China has started; The operating rate in southern and southwestern regions is about 20%. Fukang two line maintenance, temporary shutdown of COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol plant for 4 days; Extend the short stop minor repair of the Yushen device, but it may be switched to formal maintenance for one month later. Chifeng Ruiyang resumed as scheduled on May 15th. The resumption of work for factories such as Anhui Carbon Xin, Hongzhan Laha, Hongzhan Bayan, and Zhaodong COFCO is approaching. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the periodic preparation of Baijiu festivals is nearing the end; On the demand side of ethyl acetate, the Yankuang plant is expected to resume full production, the new Tiande plant is expected to restart, and the amount of ethyl acetate is expected to increase. Short term ethanol demand is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, there are currently favorable factors supporting the cost and supply sides, with downstream demand mainly relying on demand for replenishment. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation will be mainly focused on observation and consolidation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8474 yuan/ton on May 13, and the average price on May 17 was 8507 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.38% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9800 yuan/ton on May 13th, and the average price on May 17th was 9800 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8637 yuan/ton on May 13th, and the average price on May 17th was 8657 yuan/ton, with a 0.23% increase in quotation during this period.

The polyethylene quotation has slightly increased this week. In terms of supply, maintenance and renovation have resumed in early May, but some companies are still in the maintenance period. Due to a supply gap in some sources, petrochemical companies have slightly increased their factory quotations; Some companies have a strong willingness to raise prices. On the demand side, according to data statistics, as of the week ending May 16th, the operating rate of downstream polyethylene enterprises has decreased by 0.28% compared to the previous week. Among them, the agricultural film industry has entered the off-season of production, with a significant decrease in operating rate and slow follow-up of orders. Downstream rigid demand procurement is the main focus, which has insufficient support for polyethylene; There is still support for the high consolidation of crude oil costs.

On May 17th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was opened at 8490 yuan and closed at 8635 yuan, up 162 yuan, with a maximum of 8635 yuan and a minimum of 8490 yuan, up 1.91%. Recently, polyethylene futures have fluctuated and risen, supporting the spot market to some extent.

The maintenance of enterprises in May is still in a centralized maintenance period, and there may still be favorable support on the supply side. On the demand side, agricultural film is in the off-season, and there is an expectation of a decrease in the operating rate of packaging film. It is expected that the upward space for polyethylene is limited, and it may mainly consolidate at a high level.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has seen a narrow rise, with some brand prices increasing. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 13th, the domestic POM mixed price was 12800 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.79 compared to the price level on May 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The domestic methanol market was weak and volatile this week. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support the rise of coal prices. In addition, with the rise in temperature, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the consumption of power plants has contracted. Currently, the terminal is mainly supplemented by long-term cooperation, and the market demand for coal is relatively flat, with an overall wait-and-see sentiment. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average. In the state of supply-demand game, prices are mainly weak and consolidating, which loosens the support for the POM market.

In terms of supply:

Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has significantly decreased, and the overall load has been reduced from 77% to 68%. Shenhua Ningmei and Xinjiang Guoye are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a contraction in supply. Meanwhile, after previous digestion, the inventory position of the aggregation plant has decreased. In addition, due to the high level of imported materials in the early stage, manufacturers have strong confidence and are attempting to increase pricing. Overall, the pressure on the supply side has eased.

In terms of demand:

Domestic POM downstream enterprises have limited post holiday changes, with approximately 60% or more. The stocking situation is average, and most of them just need to pick up the goods to maintain production. The main logic of the terminal factory is to maintain and digest inventory, with a cautious approach to picking up goods and a slower flow of goods within the site. The overall consumption level of the market still follows the previous weak trend, and overall, the demand side has poor support for the spot price of POM.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the POM market has shown a stable and upward trend. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has decreased, and there is an expectation of a contraction in future supply sources. The pressure on the supply side has been alleviated, and downstream consumption has remained weak, hindering the positive maintenance. It is expected that the future market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

The market for ortho xylene remained stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 16th, the price of ortho xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on May 1st, which was 8300 yuan/ton. The industrial chain support is limited, and the ortho xylene market remained stable this week.

The price of mixed xylene fell weakly, and the cost support for adjacent xylene was limited this week; The price of phthalic anhydride has rebounded and increased, with increased demand support for ortho xylene and increased cost and demand support. The price of ortho xylene has temporarily stabilized this week.

The price of raw material mixed with xylene has dropped

According to the mixed xylene commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the quoted price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.86% from the price of mixed xylene on May 1st, which was 7680 yuan/ton. The high price of crude oil has fallen, and the cost of mixed xylene has decreased; Downstream enterprises are experiencing an increase in maintenance, resulting in weak demand for mixed xylene. Some mixed xylene equipment has maintenance plans, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decrease. Both supply and demand have decreased, and mixed xylene is under significant downward pressure.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market rebounds and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products by Business Society, as of May 16th, the quoted price of phthalic anhydride was 7925 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.92% compared to the price of 7700 yuan/ton on May 10th; Compared to May 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride increased by 2.66% to 7720 yuan/ton. This week, the market for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The cost of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has increased, sales are good, the supply of ortho phthalic anhydride is tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is strong. Downstream demand is strong, and they are cautious about high levels. It is expected that the market of phthalic anhydride will remain strong in the short term.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society’s neighboring xylene data, in terms of cost, the price of mixed xylene has slightly decreased, and the pressure of neighboring xylene cost decline still exists; In terms of supply and demand, the supply of ortho xylene has tightened and the demand has rebounded, providing greater support for the rise of ortho xylene. Overall, the decrease in costs has increased supply and demand support, and the support for the rise of the neighboring benzene market in the future has increased.

The price of isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the domestic quotation for isobutyraldehyde was 8050 yuan/ton, which decreased first and then increased compared to May 7th’s isobutyraldehyde price of 7975 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.94%; The price of isobutyraldehyde has increased by 2.88% compared to 7825 yuan/ton on May 11th; Compared to May 1st, the price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 5.23% to 7650 yuan/ton. After the holiday, the price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply, but downstream demand support was limited, and the price of isobutyraldehyde fell from a high level. However, as the price of isobutyraldehyde fell, manufacturers’ willingness to ship decreased, the supply of isobutyraldehyde tightened, and the price of isobutyraldehyde rebounded and rose.

High consolidation of raw material propylene prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the price of propylene was quoted at 6818.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% compared to the volatile price of 6774.60 yuan/ton on May 7th; Compared to the quotation of 6800.60 yuan/ton on May 1st, it has slightly increased by 0.26%. Downstream, under cost pressure, procurement is cautious and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. Propylene enterprises generally sell their goods, and propylene prices remain stable at high levels. Cost support is strong, and the rise in isobutyraldehyde is strongly supported.

Downstream benefits

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 15th, the price of new pentanediol was quoted at 10100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.34% compared to the price of 9966.67 yuan/ton quoted on May 6th. After the holiday, some companies offering new pentanediol have seen an increase in their prices. The support for the increase in new pentanediol has increased, and the new pentanediol market is operating stronger. The upward momentum for isobutyraldehyde has also increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde industry analyst believes that in terms of cost, the high price of raw material propylene has stabilized, and the support for the rising cost of isobutyraldehyde still exists; In terms of supply and demand, the price of isobutyraldehyde first fell and then rose. The supply of isobutyraldehyde tightened, and the price of neopentyl glycol increased, providing strong support for the demand for isobutyraldehyde. In the future, cost support, tight supply and stable demand, and isobutyraldehyde enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. It is expected that isobutyraldehyde prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.