Price trend

According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market in early February was generally weak, with some spot prices of certain brands experiencing a slight decline. As of February 10th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16400 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -0.51% compared to early February.

Cause analysis

On the supply side: In February, the load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable with an increase, and the industry average operating rate increased by about 3% to 81% compared to before the holiday. The average weekly production remains at a super high level of over 60000 tons, and the on-site supply of goods is still abundant. The supply-demand imbalance pattern remains unchanged. The inventory position is on the high side, and the manufacturer’s pricing continues to be at the pre holiday level. The market supply side’s support for PC prices is average.

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that after the significant rebound of bisphenol A at the end of last year, the long positions before the holiday gradually exhausted. In addition, the recovery of demand side after the holiday still needs a process, and the upward trend of bisphenol A price was hindered before entering the consolidation market. Upstream acetone has risen within ten days, boosting the confidence of industry players. Overall, the support of raw materials for PC costs is still acceptable.

On the demand side: The PC consumption pattern has been weak for a long time, and the overall trend continues to be weak at the end of last year. The pre holiday purchasing logic is focused on weak demand, with average stocking efforts and a wait-and-see attitude among businesses. Recently, downstream factories have been slow to return due to holidays, and the load on end enterprises is not high. Buyers are resistant to high priced goods. The slow circulation of goods in the market has limited changes, and the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.

Future forecast

The domestic PC market had a weak consolidation in early February. The upstream bisphenol A market is currently maintaining consolidation, providing sufficient support for the PC cost side. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has increased by more than 3%, while the supply remains loose. The high level of inventory in the industry has limited changes, and there has been no substantial improvement in supply pressure. In early February, the recovery of downstream demand was slow, and there was some pre holiday inventory digestion. It will take some time for businesses to return. It is expected that PC will continue to focus on organizing and running in the short term.

According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on February 8th, the domestic market price of silicon metal # 441 was based on 11220 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 27th. Compared with January 1st (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 11690 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.02%.

From the market monitoring system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that after the Spring Festival holiday, the overall consolidation and operation of the domestic spot market for silicon metal # 441 is dominant. In the post holiday period, the overall volatility of the metal silicon spot market # 441 is relatively small, the market performance is stable, and the overall news is relatively calm. Downstream user demand inquiries are gradually recovering, and the current market price is basically unchanged from before the holiday. As of February 8th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is around 11300~11500 yuan/ton, in Huangpu Port it is around 11100~11300 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is around 11000~11100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Market Factors

In terms of raw materials: After the holiday, the domestic price of silica has temporarily stabilized, and some factories have resumed shipments. The current demand from downstream users is average, and the demand heat is limited. Currently, the reference price for low-grade silica ore exports in Yunnan is around 340-360 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade silica ore export in Inner Mongolia is around 360-390 yuan/ton. The reference price for high-grade ore export in Hubei region is around 420-450 yuan/ton.

In terms of construction: In February, the performance of domestic industrial silicon sorting construction is still relatively differentiated. The overall construction rate in Xinjiang is expected to remain around 6 floors, while the construction rate in Northwest China is gradually recovering at around 80%. Some small factories in Yunnan have a slower recovery in construction, and the overall construction rate is expected to be around 25-28.

On the supply side: During the Spring Festival holiday, transportation capacity decreased, and shipments of silicon metal weakened. Downstream users mainly digested the raw materials in the early stage. Currently, it is expected that the overall supply of silicon metal will slightly increase compared to the end of January.

On the demand side: After the holiday, downstream demand for metallic silicon is slowly recovering, with downstream purchases mainly based on demand, and weak supply and demand transmission.

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the metal silicon market is relatively light. Metal silicon and upstream and downstream factories are gradually resuming operations, and the transmission between supply and demand is gradually recovering. Business Society’s metal silicon data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic metal silicon market will mainly operate steadily. It is expected that downstream demand will improve significantly by March, and the market situation will usher in a recovery operation. Specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the DOP price was 8576.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 4.25% compared to the DOP price of 8226.25 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOP. Stocking up before the Spring Festival has led to an increase in demand for plasticizers. Supported by rising costs and demand, there is a significant driving force for the increase in plasticizers.

The price of raw material isooctanol fluctuates and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the price of isooctanol was 7800 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.63% compared to the price of 7600 yuan/ton on January 1st at the beginning of the month. The construction of new equipment and the high level of equipment construction in isooctanol enterprises have led to sufficient supply of isooctanol. With stocking before the Spring Festival, the demand for isooctanol has rebounded, resulting in a double increase in supply and demand. In January, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in January, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the cost of plasticizer DOP increased; In terms of demand, stocking up before the Spring Festival and replenishing inventory after the holiday will increase the support for plasticizer demand. In the future, after the Spring Festival, the replenishment of inventory will end, and the demand for raw materials such as isooctanol and plasticizers will decrease, resulting in weakened cost support for plasticizers and weak demand; It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will slightly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of the 24th, the price of ethyl acetate was 5630.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to the price of 5623.33 yuan/ton on January 20th, and a decrease of 2.03% compared to the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure on the supply side is not high, and downstream entry into the market follows up on demand. The market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the ethyl acetate market is operating in a wait-and-see manner.

This week, the operating rate of domestic ethyl acetate plants has decreased, with no pressure on enterprise inventory, weak raw material prices as the main factor, inadequate cost support, weakened downstream production of ethyl acetate, and follow-up on demand before the holiday. Enterprise shipments are still acceptable, and the market price of ethyl acetate has stabilized.

In the future, the utilization rate of ethyl acetate production capacity is not high, and the market supply of goods remains stable. Downstream pre holiday stocking is coming to an end, and the market transaction atmosphere is weakening. In the short term, the price of ethyl acetate is stable and waiting for operation. Specific attention should be paid to changes in supplier equipment and downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (1.20-1.24), with an average market price of 247920 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 247210 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.29%.

Tin prices have risen and fallen this week. Recently, the trading performance of the spot tin market has been relatively flat, with most trading companies’ transactions mainly scattered. Although some imported tin has arrived at the port, due to the large pre-sale quantity in the early stage, the spot resources of imported tin still appear tight. In addition, with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, most trading companies’ inventory remains at a low level, and the market may face further tightening of spot resources in the future. Judging from the tight supply situation, there is still good support for tin prices.

Fundamentally, the import volume of tin ore has remained at a low level for several consecutive months. The prolonged shutdown in the Wa State region has had a significant impact that continues to ferment and become apparent. As a result, the processing cost of tin ore has fallen to a low point in recent years, and this trend is having a significant impact on the smelting end. The operating rate of refineries in Yunnan region has declined, and the year-on-year growth rate of refined tin production has also shown a downward trend.

On the supply and demand side, the new energy industry and the electronics industry have shown good recovery expectations. Especially prominent is the increasing demand for tin in the electric vehicle industry and renewable energy sector. These positive factors are expected to provide stable support for tin prices in the medium to long term.

Based on comprehensive analysis, in the short term, influenced by multiple factors such as low inventory levels and policy adjustments, market sentiment is gradually tending towards a cautious trend, and tin prices will continue to fluctuate.