Weak consolidation of post holiday plasticizer DOTP

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the price of DOTP was 11912.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10% compared to the price of DOTP on February 9th before the holiday, which was 11925 yuan/ton; Compared to January 31st, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.21% at 11937.50 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has increased, costs have risen, plasticizer manufacturers have resumed production after the holiday, DOTP supply has increased, and DOTP prices have fluctuated and fallen after the holiday.

Post holiday price increase of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12450 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 12350 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of 12375 yuan/ton increased by 0.61%. During the Spring Festival, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, but there was some recovery after the holiday. In addition, downstream customers restocked, and the demand for isooctanol slowly rebounded. During the Spring Festival, the price of isooctanol remained high, and after the holiday, the price of isooctanol slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Spring Festival, plasticizer manufacturers have seen a decrease in production, but after the holiday, plasticizer production has resumed, and the supply of plasticizers has increased. In addition, the price of isooctanol has risen, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOTP. In the future, as the cost of plasticizers increases and the supply increases, there is still limited support for the rise of DOTP and downward pressure. It is expected that DOTP prices will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 18th, the price of ortho xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on February 1st, which was 8000 yuan/ton. Post holiday restocking, rising prices of mixed xylene raw materials, and rising costs of ortho xylene; The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable after the holiday.

After the holiday, the price of mixed xylene raw materials has increased

According to the market analysis system for mixed xylene products in the Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has increased after the holiday, and the cost of ortho xylene has increased.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, after the holiday, customers replenish their inventory, resulting in an increase in the price of mixed xylene and an increase in the cost of ortho xylene. Overall, the demand for ortho xylene cost increases is average, and it is expected that ortho xylene prices will remain strong and stable in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on February 7th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20833.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In recent days, the market has taken on the weak pattern of supply and demand in the early stage, with PA66 spot prices mainly showing a strong horizontal trend. The production line operating rate has been adjusted to a low level, and the overall industry load is below 61%. The willingness of enterprises to support the market through pricing operations is clear, and the support from suppliers is still acceptable. The market supply of goods is tight, and the inventory position is not high. Downstream enterprises are experiencing an increase in holiday delisting, while textile, electrical and modification enterprises are maintaining weak and rigid demand for goods, and the pre holiday stocking demand has been almost released. Entering the Spring Festival cycle, the demand side has become increasingly quiet, and the impact on spot prices has decreased. On the upstream side, the price of hexamethylene diamine is running strong, and news of international large factories raising prices has come to fruition. Market confidence has strengthened, and the price has since stabilized. The market price of adipic acid is rising with the rise of upstream pure benzene, and the current high level is sideways, providing sufficient support for PA66. Overall, the support for the PA66 market on the cost side remains strong, and the price of PA66 is mainly guided by the cost side.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has remained strong. The prices of raw materials have both strengthened, maintaining strong support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. Terminal enterprises are basically on vacation, and the demand side is getting less goods. Before the holiday, the market atmosphere gradually quieted down and trading decreased. It is expected that PA66 will continue to operate with strong support from the cost side after 66 years.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 6th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4650.00 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices were mainly weak, and the overall market trend was stable. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, the overall DMF market has been operating steadily, with no significant price changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4650.00 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream procurement atmosphere is lukewarm, and the negotiation atmosphere is poor. The upstream cost support is average, but there is a lack of positive support. Currently, manufacturers are operating slowly, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in slow shipments.

Chemical index: On February 5th, the chemical index was 866 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain a stable, medium to strong operation, with prices remaining around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the lead market (1.29-2.5) fell first and then stabilized. The average price in the domestic market was 16240 yuan/ton last week, and 16110 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.8%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In the futures market, the US dollar strengthened during the week, while London lead fell under pressure. Shanghai lead followed suit at the beginning of the week and remained stable for the time being. Fundamentally speaking, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream market has basically completed pre holiday stocking. Currently, the festive atmosphere in the market is strong, with some smelters undergoing maintenance and some companies resuming production. Therefore, there is not much change in the operating rate within the week. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies have entered a holiday, with a significant decline in production and weak demand for lead ingot procurement. Overall, the market has a strong holiday atmosphere, with actual trading being relatively quiet and the market operating weakly.

Related data:

On February 4th, the base metal index was 1160 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.69% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 4th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 5th week of 2024 (1.29-2.2), there were a total of 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were sponge titanium (0.97%), antimony (0.83%), and gold (0.79%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-3.03%), tin (-2.96%), and nickel (-1.76%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.3%.