According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the overall domestic market for maleic anhydride in April was upward. As of April 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7190.00 yuan/ton (including tax), an increase of 2.71% from 7000.00 yuan/ton on April 1st.

In terms of supply: In April, the downstream unsaturated resin market fluctuated and rose. In addition, resin replenishment before the May Day holiday supported the maleic anhydride market. The prices of the main maleic anhydride factories continued to rise, and the market situation followed suit. The main factory of maleic anhydride mainly executes preliminary orders, and the factory has no pressure to sign orders; At the end of the month, with the basic completion of unsaturated resin stocking, the prices of the main factories of maleic anhydride have fallen slightly. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride has increased, and downstream enterprises are mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. As of April 30th, the factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6300 yuan/ton.

Upstream: The hydrogenated benzene market rose in the first half of April and fluctuated in the second half of the month. In the first half of April, the production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises started relatively well, and the supply was relatively stable. In the second half of the month, raw material prices continued to rise, resulting in lower profits for enterprises. The production of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has significantly declined, and some enterprises have plans to repair and park in the future. The market expects a tightening of supply in the future. As demand approaches the end of the month, some downstream enterprises have reported parking plans, and the market expects a decline in future demand, which has a certain impact on the market atmosphere. At the end of the month, the hydrogenated benzene market followed a slight decline in pure benzene.

In April, the international crude oil market fluctuated, with the domestic naphtha market rising and then falling, and the market price of n-butane rising and then falling. As of April 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5200-5300 yuan/ton.

Downstream: In April, the raw material market for unsaturated resin rose, supporting the cost of unsaturated resin. The unsaturated resin market fluctuated and rose, but the circulation of unsaturated resin in the market was slow, with little change in supply and demand, and overall market trading was average; At the end of the month, the market for unsaturated resin raw materials has fallen, with limited support for the cost of unsaturated resin. The unsaturated resin market is mainly stable, and there is currently no obvious willingness to stock downstream, continuing to focus on essential procurement.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analyst believes that currently, downstream unsaturated resins have been completed before the holiday, which has limited support for the maleic anhydride market. The factory prices of major factories have declined, and there has been no significant improvement in the signing of orders; The new production capacity of maleic anhydride is put into operation, and the supply of maleic anhydride in the market may increase. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by weak consolidation after the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market saw a significant increase in April. As of April 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile from the tank was 10850 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.91% from 9962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Narrow consolidation of raw material propylene prices, slight decrease in liquid ammonia prices, and weak cost support for acrylonitrile; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, continues to experience a slight decline in production, with weak support from demand for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production remains low, providing strong support for the market; As of the 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile from the tank in East China was between 10800 and 11000 yuan/ton.

In April, the load of the acrylonitrile unit fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate remained around 6.2%.

In April, the price of raw material propylene narrowed and the price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, resulting in weak support for the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 29th, the domestic propylene price was 6794 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79% from 6848 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of April 29th, the domestic liquid ammonia price was 2983 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.93% from 3073 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month

Downstream demand for acrylonitrile is weakly supported. In April, the equipment load in the ABS industry continued to decline, with the start of production dropping from 6.2% at the beginning of the month to around 5.7% at the end of the month; The production of nitrile rubber units slightly decreased in April, and there are still maintenance plans for the units in May, which weakens the support for demand for acrylonitrile; The overall production of acrylamide in March remained at a low level of around 4.6%; Overall, downstream demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that there is not much pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile at present, but there may be equipment resumption in the later stage, which will increase the supply side; Weak fluctuations in raw material prices and weak cost support for acrylonitrile; The demand for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened again, and overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fall from a high level in May.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has continued to decline, with most spot prices being lowered. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 28th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14637.50 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.10% compared to April 21st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam continued to decline this week. The price consolidation of raw material pure benzene is weak, and the cost support is average. In terms of supply, some maintenance companies in the early stage have gradually resumed work and returned, with weekly production continuing to rise and supply pressure increasing. The supply of caprolactam in the market is sufficient, but downstream demand is limited, which weakens the cost support for PA6.

In terms of supply: This week, the load of PA6 production enterprises has narrowed from a high level, with an average operating rate of around 81%, and the production level has basically remained flat compared to the previous horizontal trend. At the end of the month, the market had abundant supply of goods, and the overall support from suppliers for PA6 spot goods was average.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the recent decline in production in the main downstream industries. The operating rate of spinning is less than 80%, and the weaving load is stable at 70%. As the holiday approaches, some stocking needs are being released. However, due to the recent decline in PA6 prices, downstream enterprises are cautious in stocking up. On exchange trading has rebounded in a cautious atmosphere, supporting a narrow increase in demand for PA6.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market continued to decline this week. The price of caprolactam continues to decline, and the support for the cost side of PA6 continues to weaken. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable and there is little fluctuation, and the demand for May Day storage by terminal enterprises is gradually being released. Overall, the current market is characterized by a mix of long and short positions, and it is expected that the PA6 market may return to a calm consolidation trend before the holiday.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong fluctuated and stabilized in April. At the beginning of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4825.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.99%.

Upstream methanol situation: In April, the domestic methanol market rose, with a decrease in domestic methanol supply but little change in demand. In addition, some downstream companies began pre holiday stocking before the May Day holiday, and production enterprises continued to reduce inventory. The domestic methanol market continued to rise and operate mainly. The loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

Recently, the price of raw material methanol has risen significantly, and downstream demand for essential purchases has been maintained. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may fluctuate and rise mainly.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 24th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9100 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly decreased this week. On April 24th, the price of mixed xylene was 7910 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price of mixed xylene was 7930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from last week. Due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, demand expectations have weakened. International crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has dropped this week. On April 24th, the price of acetic acid was 3350 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price of acetic acid was 3450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9% from last week. The acetic acid market is running weakly this week. The utilization rate of production capacity has significantly decreased, the inventory of manufacturers has decreased, and the quotation for acetic acid is relatively strong and continues to rise. As downstream restocking continues, the demand for purchasing in the market has gradually stabilized, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened, leading to a decrease in acetic acid prices.

In terms of demand

The downstream polyester industry has a stable operating load around 90%, with average order performance and low willingness to accept high priced raw materials. Downstream factories are cautious in their procurement. In March, there were quite a lot of equipment maintenance in enterprises, with inventory mainly running at a low level. In April, some enterprise equipment restarted, but it still needs some time to recover. With the continuous increase in operating rates, inventory is also constantly increasing. Dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products are in high demand for customers to purchase, and downstream trading is not active.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, cost support has weakened, domestic factories have started operating steadily, and the prices offered by holders have remained stable. Overall, shipments have been relatively flat. It is expected that the market price trend of meta phthalic acid will remain stable.