The average market price of antimony ingots in China in 2023 was 75000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 81250 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 8.33%. The highest point of the year occurred on February 24th at 87250 yuan/ton, and the lowest point of the year occurred on July 20th at 76000 yuan/ton, with a maximum amplitude of 12.89%. The trend of antimony ingot market in 2022 can be basically divided into three stages: an upward period at the beginning of the year, a period of first falling and then rising in the middle of the year, and a period of year-end volatility.
K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been on the rise for 7 months and on the decline for 5 months in 2023. The largest monthly increase occurred in February, with an increase of 8.39%. The largest monthly decline occurred in July, with a decrease of 7.08%.
The comparison chart of the annual trend of antimony ingots from 2018 to 2023 shows that the antimony ingot market has remained at a high level since reaching a high level in 2022, and has reached a historical high of 87250 yuan/ton in 2023.
In the first stage, the price increased by 16.33% from the beginning of the year to mid March
In January, the antimony ingot market continued its upward trend at the end of 2022. In the early Spring Festival, due to the impact of the holiday, some antimony ingot manufacturers and antimony oxide manufacturers gradually entered the holiday mode. The overall low production of factories led to a sustained tight supply in the market, and downstream pre holiday stocking intentions remained. The supply and demand game supported the upward trend of antimony prices. In February, most smelting enterprises have not yet resumed work, and the market is still in a tight supply pattern, with market quotations continuing to rise.
In the second stage, from mid March to early August, it fell by 13.18%
Before mid March, the market was consolidating at a high level of 87250 yuan/ton, and around the 15th, the market balance was disrupted, entering a downward channel. Firstly, the prices of antimony ingots in the European market have started to loosen, with continuous price declines, with a cumulative decrease of $650/ton within the month, which has a significant impact on the domestic market atmosphere. Low price sources have emerged in China, and there have been some market transactions, consolidating the high prices for more than a month and beginning to loosen. After entering March, antimony ingot manufacturers generally started operating normally, and the market supply resumed. Some manufacturers are considering returning funds and are actively reducing prices to sell. The subsequent market entered a stable period of about three months until early August.
The third stage saw a 7.26% increase from early August to the end of the year
Previously, under the long-term supply-demand game, downstream performance has been lukewarm, and the mentality of smelting enterprises to support prices has gradually loosened. The antimony ingot market has been continuously declining in price since June. After entering August, smelters took the lead in raising prices, and the antimony ingot market stopped falling. Subsequently, with the improvement of market sentiment and the achievement of some downstream essential transactions, market sentiment began to improve. Antimony ingot prices rebounded, and overseas prices rose, once again boosting domestic market confidence. However, there has been little change in domestic supply and demand compared to the previous period, and it still shows weak supply and demand, lacking actual demand support. The antimony ingot market continues to face significant upward resistance, but after a brief decline, it turns into a consolidation trend.
By observing the trends of European antimony ingots and domestic antimony ingots, we can intuitively find that there is a certain commonality in the annual trends of the two, and they affect each other. The trend of European antimony ingots can serve as a barometer for the domestic market. In the past two years, most of the nodes have been the first changes in European antimony ingot prices, and domestic prices have started to follow after a brief lag period. From the above chart, it can be seen that prices in Europe have slightly increased towards the end of the year, while the domestic market has also experienced an upward trend at the end of the year.
As the year-end approaches, there is a certain demand for stocking in the market. Starting from mid December, the transaction situation in the domestic market has improved to a certain extent, with some actual transactions. Driven by the improvement in transactions and the rise in overseas prices, the antimony ingot market has continued to rise. From the comparison chart of the antimony ingot market from 2021 to 2024, it is evident that there has been an upward trend in the antimony ingot market towards the end of the year in the past three years, with the main influencing factor being pre holiday stocking. With this round of stocking, the price of antimony ingots has exceeded the 90000 yuan mark, breaking a new historical high, and the price has been further rising in recent times under the boost of demand. In the future, Business Society predicts that antimony ingots will continue to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term and continue until the end of January. As antimony ingot manufacturers increase their production, this increase will gradually come to an end. As the subsequent supply becomes sufficient, there is a high probability of stable, moderate, and weak operation in the second quarter. After entering the third quarter, as the weather turns hot and foreign markets enter the summer break, there may be a downward trend in the market. Based on the market trends of the past three years and the operating status of smelters, it is expected that there will still be an upward trend in the fourth quarter.
Related information
The import and export situation of antimony
From the graph, it can be seen that the import situation of antimony ore in 2023 has partially improved compared to the previous two years, but the supply at the mining end is still in a tight state, and the situation of tight supply at the mining end will continue in the 24th year. The import quantity of antimony ore and its concentrate in China is significantly greater than the export quantity, and China currently has the world’s largest antimony related reserves and production. Since the end of the 20th century, China has become the world’s largest producer of antimony and its compounds.
