In the first quarter of 2024, the domestic lithium hydroxide market first fell and then rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 133600 yuan/ton as of January 1, 2024. As of March 26, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 106400 yuan/ton, and the market fell by 20.36% in the first quarter.

Market Review:

The fundamentals were weak in January, and the lithium hydroxide market declined. Within January, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in the upstream remained stable with small fluctuations and weak fluctuations. The market for lithium pyroxene concentrate in the upstream fell, and cost support was limited. The supply side has a low operating rate, mainly due to the digestion of inventory, and the downstream demand for high nickel materials is poor. The follow-up of lithium hydroxide procurement is slow, and market transactions are mainly long-term orders. The lithium hydroxide market is under pressure, and some companies have lowered their high-end quotations. After the decline, the market is deadlocked and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

At the end of February, the lithium hydroxide market stopped falling and rose. Within February, the pre holiday cost support is limited, and the follow-up of downstream high nickel positive electrode pre holiday reserves is still acceptable. Post holiday cost support is slightly weak, inquiry enthusiasm is still acceptable, and actual transactions are light. Towards the end of the month, upstream lithium carbonate prices have risen, while upstream spodumene concentrate prices have risen. Cost support has been boosted, and the mentality of the industry is still good, driving a slight upward trend in the lithium hydroxide market.

The cost boost in March, combined with a rebound in demand, led to a rise in the lithium hydroxide market. As of March 26th, prices have risen by 6.40% for the month. In March, the price of upstream spodumene concentrate rose, and the upstream lithium carbonate market was relatively strong. The increase in cost prices boosted the mentality of industry players. Some companies on the supply side had relatively low inventory, and downstream demand for nickel materials improved. The 3C digital market performed average, while some manufacturers gradually increased production. The downstream inquiry atmosphere improved, but the purchasing attitude remained cautious and the market had a strong wait-and-see attitude.

Cause analysis:

Cost side: Production costs have a significant impact on the price of lithium hydroxide, with upstream lithium carbonate having a significant impact on the lithium hydroxide market. In the first quarter, the trend of lithium hydroxide mainly followed the adjustment of upstream lithium carbonate, and the price of lithium carbonate rose in March, providing strong support for the lithium hydroxide market. The impact of lithium carbonate may continue in the future.

Comparison chart of price trends between lithium hydroxide and upstream lithium carbonate in the first quarter:

Supply side: In January and February, some enterprises stopped for maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate was low. Some lithium hydroxide enterprises slowly resumed production after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). At present, major factories are operating normally, and most production enterprises mainly deliver long-term cooperative orders. It is expected that in April, the supply side will start construction or focus on single production, while inventory may be maintained within a controllable range.

Demand side: Currently, there is still a decent demand for high nickel ternary downstream, with the downstream energy storage equipment market mainly following up on demand. The downstream electronic product market has relatively stable demand, and the demand side has improved compared to the previous period. However, there is still uncertainty, and it is expected that short-term demand will mainly follow up. The purchasing mentality on the demand side may still be cautious.

Comprehensive prediction:

In summary, there is still some cost support in the near future, and manufacturers still have a mentality of raising prices. However, downstream follow-up is cautious, and procurement is mainly based on demand. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market will be mainly wait-and-see in the short term, and more attention will still be paid to the trend of upstream lithium carbonate.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from March 18th to 22nd, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market dropped from 9768 yuan/ton to 9693 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.77% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.54%, and a year-on-year increase of 2.40%. The domestic cyclohexanone market is operating weakly, with the raw material pure benzene rising first and then falling in recent times. The cost support has weakened from strong to weak, and downstream chemical fibers are purchased on demand. The spot supply of cyclohexanone in the market is stable and abundant, and downstream high prices are generally following suit. High priced shipments are hindered, and the focus of transactions has declined.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic production of pure benzene has slightly increased, and downstream inventory of essential raw materials is low. Demand based delivery is stable, and the price of pure benzene fluctuates and falls after a high opening. As of March 22, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 8540.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by favorable factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The average weekly operating load of cyclohexanone is 69.80%, with a weekly production of 106900 tons, an increase from the previous cycle. The supply of cyclohexanone is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market is running weakly, with abundant supply of caprolactam in recent times, which has constrained market confidence. In addition, upstream pure benzene prices have fallen, resulting in empty costs and supply. The caprolactam market continues to weaken. The demand side for cyclohexanone is temporarily bearish.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate in a volatile manner, with relatively stable cost support. Downstream demand is high with on-demand procurement, and the market spot supply is stable and abundant. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will mainly consolidate in the short term.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 21, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1062 yuan/ton, which was basically unchanged from March 17. Compared with March 1 (reference price of 1052 yuan/ton of phosphate ore), the basic price increased by 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in early March, the overall domestic phosphate ore market saw a slight increase and remained stable. Entering this week, the phosphate ore market has shown a fluctuating trend of ups and downs. At the beginning of the week, the overall price of phosphate ore in the Yunnan region of China increased, with some mining companies that had previously quoted lower prices raising the price of 30 grade phosphate ore by about 20 yuan/ton. Later, during the mid week period, some mining companies in Guizhou region also lowered the prices of mid to high end grade phosphate ore narrowly based on their own shipments, with a reduction of about 10-30 yuan per ton. The phosphate ore market in other regions mainly continues to consolidate and operate. As of March 21st, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1000-1100 yuan/ton. The specific price may vary depending on factors such as the original ore specifications and powder to block ratio, and the specific price needs to be negotiated based on actual orders.

Prediction of future market for phosphate ore

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphate ore market is mild and quiet, with normal downstream inquiries. The market continues to wait for demand to be released, and the current supply and demand transmission is still good. According to the phosphate ore data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend will need to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipment. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the impact of factors such as demand and downstream shipments.

Market price trend chart of resorcinol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 20th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44500 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On March 20th, the price of pure benzene was 8573.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96% from last week and 17.77% from the same period last year. The East China market is in talks of a decline, with mixed ups and downs. There are few spot transactions and sufficient downstream inventory, creating a wait-and-see atmosphere.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly decreased this week. On March 20th, the price of nitric acid was 1790 yuan/ton, and on March 13th, it was 1833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.32% from last week and 26.78% from the same period last year. At present, the market continues to be weak, and manufacturers are shipping according to the market.

M-phenylenediamine: The domestic price of m-phenylenediamine remained stable this week. On March 20th, the price of phenylenediamine was 37166.67 yuan/ton. The performance of the raw material market is strong, while the atmosphere in the downstream dye and pesticide intermediate markets is calm.

This week, the trading atmosphere in the resorcinol market was relatively light, with limited improvement in downstream rubber industry operating rates. The atmosphere in the dye and pesticide intermediate market was calm. It is expected that the market for resorcinol will remain stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China dropped from 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8776.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 2.59%, and the weekend price increased by 19.55% year-on-year.

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have seen a slight decline in their quotations this week, resulting in low inventory.

The propylene market has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 6992.6 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6948.60 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.82% over the weekend. At the beginning of the week, propylene prices saw a slight decline due to the dual negative impact of weak crude oil and weak demand.

From the perspective of downstream demand, the market situation of new pentanediol has slightly declined, with the market price dropping from 10666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.31%, and the weekend price dropping by 1.84% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, with high enterprise production and average downstream demand, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

In late March, the trend of isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline. The upstream propylene market has experienced a slight decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for new pentanediol has also experienced a slight decline, leading to high levels of enterprise production and weakened downstream procurement enthusiasm. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analyst believes that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.