Market analysis for this week

This week, the magnesium ingot market continued to operate weakly. Magnesium plants continue to produce, with accumulated inventory under pressure. Downstream enterprises are following up slowly, only maintaining essential procurement. The supply and demand sides of the magnesium market are showing a serious imbalance. And under the financial pressure at the end of the month, the overall weak situation has not significantly improved. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the average price of domestic magnesium ingots in the market was 19400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3% compared to the previous week..

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is around 6250-6450 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6407.14 yuan/ton. Recently, industry insiders may have high expectations for the traditional peak demand season of “gold, silver, and four”, or an important conference may be held soon to release some positive news. The market has seen a wave of upward momentum, and industry confidence has increased, with prices increasing by 50 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of blue charcoal has been weak, with some companies lowering their prices by 30-50 yuan/ton. The cost side of the enterprise is under great pressure, and it is basically in continuous losses. The production enthusiasm of blue charcoal enterprises has declined, and some raw material side lump coal auctions have failed. Some factories, in order to recover funds, can only continuously lower the price of magnesium ingots for shipment turnover.

Future Market Forecast

At present, there is a serious supply-demand imbalance in the magnesium ingot market, with the supply side continuing to increase. Downstream resumption of production is less than expected, and only essential procurement is needed. It is difficult for prices to rise, and it is expected that the magnesium ingot market will continue to decline in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market remained stable in February 2024, with an average market price of 91500 yuan/ton in East China, which remained stable.

On February 27th, the antimony commodity index was 127.38, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a new historical high within the cycle, up 171.14% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market rose in February, with a quote of $12950/ton as of the 28th, an increase of $200/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market remained stable in February, with a slight recovery in overseas markets recently, driving an improvement in the domestic market mentality. However, February coincided with the Spring Festival holiday, and most smelters and downstream enterprises were in holiday mode. The overall market trading was relatively quiet, and the downstream antimony oxide market maintained on-demand replenishment, providing strong support for the antimony ingot market.

The antimony ingot market remained stable in February and has continued to rise since the fourth quarter of 2023, boosted by tight supply. After entering February, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, market trading was relatively quiet, spot market procurement was limited, smelters and downstream enterprises also entered the holiday, and the market remained at a high level. After the European antimony ingot market rose. There is a certain boost to the domestic market mentality, but the holiday atmosphere in the market is strong, and the spot market has not followed the trend yet. The overall high level and stable operation in February are the main reasons. As downstream construction gradually begins and enterprises gradually resume production, downstream enterprises will have plans to replenish inventory as needed. However, the current market prices are running at a high level, so downstream wait-and-see sentiment is still strong, and the current market supply-demand game mentality is strong. Overall, there is a lack of actual transactions in the antimony ingot market after the holiday, and it is expected to maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term under the supply-demand game mentality. In the future, the focus will be on the replenishment needs of downstream enterprises.

On February 27th, the non-ferrous index was 1088 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 29.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.24% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (February 26th): 85 yuan/ton

On February 26th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid dropped significantly, with a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to February 25th, a decrease of 5.56%, and a year-on-year decrease of 48.17%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has fluctuated and fallen, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. During the holiday, some manufacturers have increased their inventory and reduced prices to attract orders.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market prices may fluctuate and fall in the future, with an average market price of around 80 yuan/ton.

Weak consolidation of post holiday plasticizer DOTP

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the price of DOTP was 11912.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.10% compared to the price of DOTP on February 9th before the holiday, which was 11925 yuan/ton; Compared to January 31st, the price of DOTP decreased by 0.21% at 11937.50 yuan/ton. The price of raw material isooctanol has increased, costs have risen, plasticizer manufacturers have resumed production after the holiday, DOTP supply has increased, and DOTP prices have fluctuated and fallen after the holiday.

Post holiday price increase of isooctanol

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 19th, the quotation for isooctanol was 12450 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 0.81% compared to the quotation for isooctanol on February 9th before the holiday, which was 12350 yuan/ton; Compared to February 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of 12375 yuan/ton increased by 0.61%. During the Spring Festival, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, but there was some recovery after the holiday. In addition, downstream customers restocked, and the demand for isooctanol slowly rebounded. During the Spring Festival, the price of isooctanol remained high, and after the holiday, the price of isooctanol slightly increased.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that during the Spring Festival, plasticizer manufacturers have seen a decrease in production, but after the holiday, plasticizer production has resumed, and the supply of plasticizers has increased. In addition, the price of isooctanol has risen, leading to an increase in the cost of plasticizer DOTP. In the future, as the cost of plasticizers increases and the supply increases, there is still limited support for the rise of DOTP and downward pressure. It is expected that DOTP prices will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 18th, the price of ortho xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on February 1st, which was 8000 yuan/ton. Post holiday restocking, rising prices of mixed xylene raw materials, and rising costs of ortho xylene; The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable after the holiday.

After the holiday, the price of mixed xylene raw materials has increased

According to the market analysis system for mixed xylene products in the Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has increased after the holiday, and the cost of ortho xylene has increased.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, after the holiday, customers replenish their inventory, resulting in an increase in the price of mixed xylene and an increase in the cost of ortho xylene. Overall, the demand for ortho xylene cost increases is average, and it is expected that ortho xylene prices will remain strong and stable in the future.