The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 18th, the price of ortho xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of ortho xylene on February 1st, which was 8000 yuan/ton. Post holiday restocking, rising prices of mixed xylene raw materials, and rising costs of ortho xylene; The price of ortho xylene is temporarily stable after the holiday.

After the holiday, the price of mixed xylene raw materials has increased

According to the market analysis system for mixed xylene products in the Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has increased after the holiday, and the cost of ortho xylene has increased.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, after the holiday, customers replenish their inventory, resulting in an increase in the price of mixed xylene and an increase in the cost of ortho xylene. Overall, the demand for ortho xylene cost increases is average, and it is expected that ortho xylene prices will remain strong and stable in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has remained strong at a high level. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on February 7th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20833.33 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In recent days, the market has taken on the weak pattern of supply and demand in the early stage, with PA66 spot prices mainly showing a strong horizontal trend. The production line operating rate has been adjusted to a low level, and the overall industry load is below 61%. The willingness of enterprises to support the market through pricing operations is clear, and the support from suppliers is still acceptable. The market supply of goods is tight, and the inventory position is not high. Downstream enterprises are experiencing an increase in holiday delisting, while textile, electrical and modification enterprises are maintaining weak and rigid demand for goods, and the pre holiday stocking demand has been almost released. Entering the Spring Festival cycle, the demand side has become increasingly quiet, and the impact on spot prices has decreased. On the upstream side, the price of hexamethylene diamine is running strong, and news of international large factories raising prices has come to fruition. Market confidence has strengthened, and the price has since stabilized. The market price of adipic acid is rising with the rise of upstream pure benzene, and the current high level is sideways, providing sufficient support for PA66. Overall, the support for the PA66 market on the cost side remains strong, and the price of PA66 is mainly guided by the cost side.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the spot price of PA66 has remained strong. The prices of raw materials have both strengthened, maintaining strong support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. Terminal enterprises are basically on vacation, and the demand side is getting less goods. Before the holiday, the market atmosphere gradually quieted down and trading decreased. It is expected that PA66 will continue to operate with strong support from the cost side after 66 years.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of February 6th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4650.00 yuan/ton. This week, DMF prices were mainly weak, and the overall market trend was stable. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, the overall DMF market has been operating steadily, with no significant price changes compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4650.00 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the downstream procurement atmosphere is lukewarm, and the negotiation atmosphere is poor. The upstream cost support is average, but there is a lack of positive support. Currently, manufacturers are operating slowly, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in slow shipments.

Chemical index: On February 5th, the chemical index was 866 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain a stable, medium to strong operation, with prices remaining around 4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the lead market (1.29-2.5) fell first and then stabilized. The average price in the domestic market was 16240 yuan/ton last week, and 16110 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 0.8%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In the futures market, the US dollar strengthened during the week, while London lead fell under pressure. Shanghai lead followed suit at the beginning of the week and remained stable for the time being. Fundamentally speaking, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream market has basically completed pre holiday stocking. Currently, the festive atmosphere in the market is strong, with some smelters undergoing maintenance and some companies resuming production. Therefore, there is not much change in the operating rate within the week. In terms of demand, downstream battery companies have entered a holiday, with a significant decline in production and weak demand for lead ingot procurement. Overall, the market has a strong holiday atmosphere, with actual trading being relatively quiet and the market operating weakly.

Related data:

On February 4th, the base metal index was 1160 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.69% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On February 4th, the non-ferrous index was 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 5th week of 2024 (1.29-2.2), there were a total of 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were sponge titanium (0.97%), antimony (0.83%), and gold (0.79%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-3.03%), tin (-2.96%), and nickel (-1.76%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.3%.

This week (January 29 to February 4, 2024), adhesive short fiber manufacturers had no pressure on inventory, and their quoted prices were relatively firm. Manufacturers were reluctant to sell, resulting in a slight increase in prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market has a holiday atmosphere and transactions are light. The overall stability of downstream cotton yarn is relatively strong, with an overall increase in sales. The prices quoted by yarn factories have slightly increased, discounts have been slightly reduced, and the operating load has decreased. Inventory has been basically maintained.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of viscose short fibers remained stable and increased this week (January 29 to February 4, 2024). As of February 4th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13180 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton or 0.92% compared to last week.

In terms of cost: This week (January 29 to February 4, 2024), the price of raw material dissolved slurry remained stable, and cost support remained strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7400 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in price. Actual orders are being negotiated.

Supply and demand: This week (January 29 to February 4, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry has remained basically stable, and the overall industry load is currently around 82.8%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market has a holiday atmosphere for trading, with light transactions and no inventory pressure on manufacturers. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment has increased. The human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong. The supply of low-priced goods in the market has slightly decreased, but the overall improvement is still limited, and market confidence is still insufficient.

Downstream cotton yarn market

From January 29 to February 4, 2024, the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and strong, with some yarn factories offering slightly higher prices and slightly reduced discounts. Overall shipments were average, but as the Spring Festival approached, the operating load of human cotton yarn slightly decreased to around 66%, and inventory was basically maintained. As of February 4th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first grade) was 17375 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.29% compared to last week.

Future Market Forecast

The price center of raw material dissolution pulp is strong, with strong cost support. Downstream cotton yarn factories are approaching the holiday period, and their enthusiasm for replenishment is not high. The trading atmosphere in the viscose short fiber market will be light. The market lacks confidence in the later stage and is bearish on the market before the Spring Festival. As the Spring Festival approaches, textile machinery manufacturers are taking a break one after another, entering a situation of price without market. Analysts from Business Society predict that the market for viscose short fibers and artificial cotton yarn will continue to stabilize and operate in the short term.