Recent price consolidation of plasticizers

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizers have been fluctuating and consolidating in the past month, with prices of DOP and DOTP fluctuating and consolidating around 11400 yuan/ton; The DBP price has rapidly dropped from 10050 yuan/ton on October 16th to around 9500 yuan/ton at the end of October. In November, the DBP price fluctuated and adjusted around 9500 yuan/ton. The game between cost and supply and demand continues, and the prices of plasticizer products fluctuate and consolidate.

Cost determines the profit margin of plasticizers

According to the market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol has rapidly declined from 12500 yuan/ton on November 16 to 11320 yuan/ton on November 2, resulting in a significant decrease in the cost of plasticizers; Afterwards, in November, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated, while in October, the price of propylene fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in the cost of isooctanol. Downstream plasticizer enterprises were operating under capacity, resulting in poor demand for isooctanol. In October, the price of isooctanol significantly decreased, resulting in a decrease in plasticizer costs and an increase in the profitability of plasticizer enterprises. In November, the price of propylene first rose and then fell, and the propylene market improved. The cost of isooctanol increased, and the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increased. The supply of isooctanol increased, and downstream demand for isooctanol was just in demand. The price of isooctanol was relatively strong, and the profits of plasticizer enterprises stabilized, with a slight decline.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of phthalic anhydride has continued to decline since October 16th. As of November 16th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7487.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.6% compared to the 8375 yuan/ton price of phthalic anhydride on October 16th. The cost of plasticizers has decreased, and the profit space for plasticizers has increased. The price of n-butanol plummeted by 13.36% from October 16th to the end of October; The price of n-butanol fluctuated and consolidated in November. In the second half of October, the prices of phthalic anhydride and n-butanol significantly decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP decreased. In October, DBP prices rapidly declined, but the decline rate of DBP was significantly slower than that of n-butanol, and the profit of plasticizer DBP increased. In November, n-butanol prices fluctuated and consolidated, DBP costs stabilized, DBP downward pressure weakened, and DBP gross profit levels stabilized.

Profitability affects the operating rate of enterprises

In early October, the profit margin of the plasticizer market narrowed, and the capacity utilization rate of plasticizer enterprises decreased from 57% to 40%. In October, the production lines of plasticizers were reduced in production, such as Ningbo Aijing, Xinnuolixing, and Shandong Haiyou plants, while Shandong Lanfan, Aojia Yongli, and Zhenjiang Liancheng had production reductions. On October 23rd, the capacity utilization rate decreased to 40%. The tightening of supply has led to spot queues in local markets such as Shandong and Jiangsu, and a sharp drop in raw material prices. The profitability of the plasticizer market is gradually improving in the latter half of the year. In November, the production capacity utilization rate gradually rebounded, and Xinnuo Lixing, Shandong Haiyou, and Dongying Yimeide units gradually resumed production. The production capacity utilization rate rebounded to over 60%, and the plasticizer production capacity utilization rate remained within the range of 60-64%. Profits increased, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises was at a high level within the year. The supply of plasticizers increased, and the pressure on plasticizer prices to decline increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that since the second half of October, the plasticizer industry chain has been fluctuating and consolidating. In the second half of October, raw material prices significantly decreased, plasticizer costs decreased, and plasticizer prices fluctuated and fell. As the cost of plasticizers decreases, the profits of plasticizer enterprises increase, and the demand for raw materials increases. The prices of raw materials stop falling and consolidate, while plasticizer enterprises increase in production and supply. In the market where downstream demand continues to be weak, the supply of plasticizers increases, and the downward pressure on plasticizers increases. The weak game between cost support and supply, increase, and demand continues, and the plasticizer industry chain market fluctuated and consolidated in November.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of November 15th, the price of PET water bottles has been in a weak trend, with a narrow downward trend. The current average price is 7110.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7100 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET prices were weak, with a 0.28% decrease compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is relatively low, with the mainstream price around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the purchasing atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream costs lack support.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On November 13, the rubber and plastic index was 675 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 36.32% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 27.84% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 7800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7500.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.85%, and the weekend price increased by 15.38% year-on-year. On November 13th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 37.99, a decrease of 0.08 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.02% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 26.13% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell this week. The price increased from 7090.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7270.75 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.54%, and the weekend price decreased by 0.82% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10375.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.43%, and the weekend price has increased by 7.33% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in mid to late November may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The upstream propylene market has shown a downward trend over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21766.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 17.18% compared to the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 10th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 27666.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 27833.33/ton, and an increase of 8.50% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In November, due to the continuous decline and suppression of high raw material prices, some manufacturers have slightly lowered the market price of R22, leading to a slight decline in the domestic R22 market price.

In November, the price of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased, and the cost of raw materials slightly decreased. As a result, manufacturers slightly lowered the factory price of R134a, leading to a slight decline in domestic R134a prices.

In terms of raw materials, after entering November, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price rose slightly and fell slightly. As of November 10th, the hydrofluoric acid price fell by 0.15% during the month, and the raw material cost fell again. In addition, the demand for refrigerants in the fourth quarter was weak, and the domestic refrigerant market prices will be under overall pressure in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Refrigerant analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to decrease, and the demand for refrigerants in the fourth quarter has weakened. In the short term, domestic R22 and R134a prices will mainly operate under weak pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of ortho phthalic anhydride continued to decline this week. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.43% compared to the price of 7712.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is maintained at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. Recently, downstream procurement has not been active, and some phthalic anhydride factories have lowered their factory prices, resulting in a sluggish market situation for phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Insufficient cost support for low prices of ortho benzene

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene remained low. As of the end of the month, the ortho benzene price was 8000 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the beginning of the week. The ortho benzene supply was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. This week, the crude oil price trend significantly decreased, and the mixed xylene price correspondingly decreased, leading to a decrease in raw material prices. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price trend remained low, and the low ortho benzene market brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price has slightly increased, with a price of 11358.33 yuan/ton as of the weekend, an increase of 1.49% compared to the price of 11191.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have poor profits, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, with mainstream DOP prices ranging from 11300 to 11400 yuan/ton, and plasticizer manufacturers are not actively purchasing, Affected by this, the market price of phthalic anhydride slightly declined.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has declined, and the price of ortho xylene is weak. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. It is expected that the ortho phthalic anhydride market price will mainly fluctuate due to this impact.