This week, the acrylic acid market remained stable with some gains. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 2nd, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6187.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to Monday (January 29th).

Factors affecting the price of acrylic acid:

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of propylene on February 1st was 6843.25, a decrease of 0.36% compared to January 1st (6868.25). Recently, the price of raw material propylene has been weak, and the impact of cost on the acrylic acid market is limited.

Supply and demand side: There is not much inventory pressure on the supply side, which supports the mentality of enterprises to raise prices. Downstream procurement is cautious, with a focus on following up on just the right amount of demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and with the support of the supply and demand side, the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market is stable but rising.

According to analysts from Business Society, as downstream pre holiday stocking gradually approaches its end, the market atmosphere may gradually slow down. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11666 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11666 yuan/ton, indicating stable prices.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have remained stable in their quotations. As the Spring Festival approaches, manufacturers have gradually suspended production. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranges from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton, and market sales have slowed down. Prices are sideways, with a focus on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: Activated carbon manufacturers have gradually stopped reporting, and market transactions are weak. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market fluctuated and increased in January. The price of tetrahydrofuran increased from 12925 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.58%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 7.51% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have fluctuated this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the maleic anhydride factory mainly executes early-stage orders, with overall average market trading and weak market conditions. The market price of maleic anhydride dropped significantly in January, dropping from 7860 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7199.80 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.40%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.23% at the end of the month. The domestic market for 1,4-butanediol is stable and experiencing a downward trend, with rigid contract trading and light spot trading. In January, the market for 1,4-butanediol slightly declined. The price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 9535.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9421.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 24.39% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected.

From the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream textile factories will enter a holiday mode, which will further weaken their procurement of raw materials. The market price of spandex slightly decreased in January. The price of spandex decreased from 32125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 31500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.95%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 11.89% year-on-year. The downstream spandex market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future: In mid to early February, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream maleic anhydride market has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have significantly declined. On January 29, the rare earth index was 398 points, a decrease of 60.48% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 46.86% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has significantly declined. As of the 30th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.93 million yuan/ton, with a monthly price decline of 22.18%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 1.925 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.06% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.405 million yuan/ton, with a price decline of 24.25%; The domestic price of terbium series has declined, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 5.7 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 7.1 million yuan/ton.

In January, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market fell. Recently, there have been limited transactions in the rare earths market, with few new orders and low purchasing willingness of enterprises. Some enterprises have recently lowered their negative guarantee prices, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only 30% of production. Some magnetic material enterprises have started to take a break, and overall production has declined to below 50%, mainly due to inventory consumption. In addition, the procurement of waste recycling is not active, and the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the trend of the heavy rare earth market has significantly declined. The total control indicators for the third batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 15000 tons and 13850 tons, respectively. Generally, two batches of indicators are announced each year. The third batch of indicators in 2023 will increase mining volume, which is detrimental to the domestic rare earth market.

According to statistics, in December 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.172 million and 1.191 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 46.4%, and a market share of 37.7%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in December were 3438.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to December was 52306.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a significant decline in the light rare earth market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and there is a lack of new orders from holiday companies. It is expected that the prices of heavy rare earths in the market will mainly fluctuate at low levels in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, at the beginning of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5425.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of Shanxi industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 5175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.61%. The current price has dropped by 12.47% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

In January, the domestic potassium nitrate market declined. As can be seen from the above chart, the potassium nitrate market has been fluctuating and declining for two consecutive months, and the market has continued to decline this month. The raw material market has significantly declined, with poor cost support and sufficient supply of potassium nitrate. Prices have continued to follow the decline in costs. According to statistics from Business Society, mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers have recently quoted 4900-5000 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall trend of potassium chloride market in January was downward. The downstream market demand is sluggish, and the pressure on potassium chloride to sell has increased. This week, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride has dropped significantly. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of potassium chloride has dropped from 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2800 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 8.91%. The prices of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangge are temporarily stable, but new transactions are limited. The downstream market for potassium chloride continues to decline, with weakened downstream demand and a focus on essential procurement. Recently, international potassium fertilizer has also shown a weak trend. Business Society’s potassium chloride analyst believes that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

At present, the domestic potassium chloride market has slightly improved, and the potassium nitrate market is at a low level. Downstream pre holiday stocking is expected, and it is expected that the price of potassium nitrate will mainly rebound from the bottom in the short term. The long-term market still needs to wait and see.