Price trend

In October, the domestic EVA market was negative, with spot prices decreasing in a stepwise manner. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 31, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 12166.67 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 7.59% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

The supply of ethylene in the raw material end was sufficient in October, and the port inventory was stable. The cost fluctuation is relatively weak, and the benefits for ethylene are not significant. The supply and demand contradiction on the market only slightly alleviated by the end of the month;

The trading situation in the vinyl acetate industry is average, and the follow-up of on-site stocking is weak. At the same time, the weakening of upstream raw materials such as ethylene has led to a weak guidance for the vinyl acetate market. In addition, as vinyl acetate is about to enter the traditional off-season and demand expectations are poor, multiple bearish factors have led to a weak consolidation of the vinyl acetate market. The market for EVA raw materials is weak, and there is not significant support for the EVA market.

On the supply side:

In October, domestic EVA enterprises underwent maintenance and restart, but the scale was relatively small. The industry’s operating rate has rebounded from around 80% at the beginning of the month and climbed to around 82% at the end of the month. The overall inventory pressure of the enterprise is moderate, but the continuous high load gradually accumulates supply pressure. The confidence of manufacturers has weakened, and the factory price has been lowered. EVA suppliers have poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand:

The sluggish EVA peak season in October has not improved. The demand for photovoltaic film has been exhausted for a long time, and consumption is becoming increasingly weak in the second half of the month. The demand for foam shoe materials has been weak for a long time, and the weak demand for EVA continues. Enterprises are cautious in their operations and have not seen any hoarding operations as they focus on just getting goods. There is very little trading on the market, and actual orders are concentrated in low-end sources, while high priced sources are highly resistant.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA market performed negatively in October. The raw material market is weak, and there is insufficient support for EVA spot sales. After the industry load drops, it rises, and supply pressure gradually rises. The current bearish guidance in the EVA market may activate some stocking demand after the spot price drops, but the possibility of a significant increase is unlikely. It is expected that the EVA market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

Ethylene glycol fell 2.63% on a monthly basis

According to data from Business News Agency, on October 31st, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4073.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared to the beginning of the month. The prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4160 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 3950 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 3950 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4160 yuan/ton.

The ex factory tax price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, and the current price range is 3490-3640 yuan/ton.

On October 30th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 470 US dollars/ton; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 474 US dollars per ton.

Ethylene glycol fundamentals

Supply side

Two units with a total production capacity of 1.2 million tons have recently restarted at the ethylene glycol supply end, and there is an expectation of a short-term rebound in market operating rates.

Downstream demand

The polyester factory load remains around 89.1%, and polyester filament inventory has increased by 0.7 days to 21.9 days. The current inventory level is close to the high point in April 2023; The load of terminal factories continues to increase, with the elastic loading in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increasing by 3 percentage points to 89%, the weaving machine load increasing by 1 percentage point to 81%, and the grey fabric inventory increasing by 0.7 to 30.5 days, but still at a low level within the year. The peak season characteristics of downstream industries continue, but orders at the weaving end have begun to weaken marginally. Christmas orders for foreign trade have already ended, and domestic orders will also show a turning point at the end of the month. It is expected to enter November, Downstream demand will fall seasonally, and the loom load will also peak.

High port inventory

This week, the ethylene glycol inventory in the main port of East China has slightly decreased. As of October 30, 2023, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China was 1.143 million tons, which is still relatively high compared to the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China on September 28, with a cumulative inventory of 50000 tons.

Future market forecast

After the decline in ethylene glycol prices in October, the current long short game has intensified. In the short term, due to the significant decline in the previous period and the recent rebound in macroeconomic sentiment, the price of ethylene glycol has shown a trend of stabilizing. Currently, the cost of ethylene glycol is relatively strong, and the market price of ethylene glycol is at the bottom. However, the reality of supply and demand is loose, with high inventory, which suppresses the upward trend of prices. It is expected that the probability of maintaining a volatile sideways trend in the short term will increase, and the November volatility range may slightly move up.

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trend

In October, the current prices of metal silicon both fell, and after the National Day holiday, market demand continued to be sluggish, and spot prices continued to decline. Moreover, warehouse receipts in November may be centrally cancelled, and the outflow of futures warehouse receipts will increase the supply of the spot market. Under the current market demand and consumption, the market’s acceptance capacity is limited, and the performance of metal silicon prices in the future is not optimistic. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 27, 2023, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 1550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.15% from the beginning of the month and 7.09% from the same period last year.

Supply side

As of October 26th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 438, with an overall furnace opening rate of 60.08%, an increase of 11 units compared to the previous month. In October, the supply of silicon metal steadily increased, and the number of furnaces opened reached a new high within the year. Due to the accelerated resumption of production by large factories in Xinjiang and the release of new production capacity, the cost center of Southwest silicon enterprises has shifted upwards during the dry season. The subsequent construction situation needs to be combined with the local electricity price situation. However, the current spot price difference is conducive to warehouse receipt cancellation and flowing into the spot market, supplementing the supply of industrial silicon during the dry season.

Demand side

In October, the price of polycrystalline silicon plummeted significantly, and the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a current model of primary solar grade has dropped to 70000-75000 yuan/ton. The recent increase in demand for silicon materials in the market is insufficient, and it is necessary to continue to follow up. With the expectation of increased supply, prices will continue to loosen and decline in the future. The market is concerned that the decline in profits from polycrystalline silicon will drag down industrial silicon prices, leading to a pressure drop in industrial silicon prices\

In October, the organic silicon DMC market fell first and then rose, with the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference at 14760 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild, with leading factories scheduling orders for a long time. The market is still relatively high in price and spot circulation is still tight. Currently, the overall performance of factory orders is still relatively smooth, and the domestic organic silicon DMC market is mainly stable, medium to strong in the short term.

Aluminum alloy prices fluctuate at high levels, with aluminum alloy ADC12 quoting 19500 yuan/ton. Small and medium-sized factories have insufficient orders, low enthusiasm for construction, and overall stable procurement of metal silicon.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current supply performance of metal silicon is relatively loose, with disturbances from the resumption of production by large factories in the north and an increase in warehouse receipt cancellations in November, and short-term metal silicon prices will continue to be under pressure. However, due to the expected cost increase and production reduction during the dry season in the Southwest region from November to December, the inventory pressure of silicon factories is not significant, and supported by costs. It is expected that metal silicon will first decline and then rise in November.

Zinc prices have stopped falling and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 27th, the zinc price was 21122 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.12% compared to October 20th, when the zinc price was 21096 yuan/ton; The zinc price decreased by 3.60% compared to 21910 yuan/ton on October 1st. The zinc market is playing a long short game, with macroeconomic data rebounding. This week, the zinc price has stopped falling and consolidated.

US Manufacturing PMI Record High in October

After output stagnated in August and September, US manufacturing and service industry activity expanded slightly in October. On October 24th, according to the latest data from S&P Global, the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States initially hit a six-month high of 50 in October, surpassing expectations of 49.5 from 49.8. The boundary between prosperity and decline is 50. The initial PMI of the Markit service industry in the United States in October was 50.9, setting a three-month high and exceeding expectations of 49.9. In August, it was 50.1. The initial value of Markit’s comprehensive PMI in the United States in October was 51, setting a new three-month high, with an expected 50, compared to the previous value of 50.2. The manufacturing PMI in the United States unexpectedly reached a new high in October, with an initial return to expansion in six months. Market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have decreased, boosting the rebound of non-ferrous metals and stabilizing the zinc market.

Euro zone comprehensive PMI hit a new three-year low in October

The Eurozone Comprehensive Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by Standard&Poor’s Global for October fell to 46.5 from 47.2 in September, significantly below the boom and bust line of 50, reaching a new low in 35 months, indicating an accelerated decline in economic activity. The initial value of the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October was 43.1, lower than September’s 43.4 and the lowest in nearly three months. The market had originally expected it to rebound to 43.7; The initial value of the manufacturing output index remains unchanged at 43.1, but it is still below the 50 boom and bust line. PMI data shows that the economic situation in the eurozone is getting worse and worse. Almost all sub indices are falling. It is expected that the eurozone will experience a technical recession in the second half of the year, increasing the risk of negative growth for two consecutive quarters. The European economy is weak, which is bearish for the non-ferrous metal market, and the downward pressure on the zinc market is increasing.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business News, the macroeconomic index in the United States has rebounded, while the macroeconomic weakness in Europe has intensified. Macroeconomic expectations are mixed, and overall macroeconomic expectations have weakened. The non-ferrous metal market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the downward pressure on the zinc market has weakened. Zinc prices have stopped falling and consolidated; Although October is in the traditional peak demand season, the construction of galvanized enterprises is relatively weak compared to previous years, and the characteristics of the peak season are not obvious. Zinc ingot inventory is low, LME zinc ingot inventory has plummeted, and domestic inventory is also operating at a low level, weakening the supply of zinc in the market. In the future, both supply and demand are weak, and there is insufficient support for the rise of the zinc market. Macroeconomic expectations are mixed, and the downward pressure on the zinc market is weakened. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the rare earth market price index was mainly volatile in October, with the domestic heavy rare earth market slightly rising and the light rare earth market price slightly decreasing. On October 25th, the rare earth index was 515 points, a slight decrease from 516 points at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 48.86% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.04% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The prices of neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and metal praseodymium neodymium in China have slightly decreased, while the prices of metal neodymium have slightly increased. The prices of metal praseodymium and praseodymium oxide have remained stable, with the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reaching 512500 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.44%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 632500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%; The price of neodymium oxide was 520000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.35%; The price of neodymium metal is 662500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.38%; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, with a stable price trend.

Downstream magnetic material manufacturers produced normally during the holiday in early October, but their pre holiday inventory decreased. Some magnetic material companies stated that their orders were scheduled until mid October, leading to an increase in rare earth procurement orders and an increase in domestic rare earth market prices. However, in the middle of the year, the manufacturer’s stock preparation has come to an end, and the procurement of rare earth products is not active. In addition, the inventory of waste separation enterprises is sufficient. Although the situation of metal praseodymium neodymium price inversion has improved, the transaction situation is poor, and the domestic rare earth market prices have slightly decreased. Although some traders have driven an increase in market activity, and upstream companies have offered relatively firm prices, terminal demand has fallen short of expectations, and the overall light rare earth market is relatively weak.

The domestic heavy rare earth dysprosium series market is mainly volatile, with the price of dysprosium oxide reaching 2.66 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 1.12% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.63 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.74% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.39 million yuan/ton, an increase of 1.19% compared to the beginning of the month; The price of terbium series in China has mainly declined, with terbium oxide priced at 8.175 million yuan/ton and metallic terbium priced at 10.35 million yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, downstream restocking was carried out, with an increase in inquiries and a tightening of spot supply, leading to an increase in the domestic heavy rare earth market price. The later stage of procurement has come to an end, coupled with increased wait-and-see sentiment among merchants, the prices of heavy rare earths have slightly decreased. However, in October, the demand for new energy vehicles, industrial robots and other terminals continued to increase, and the demand is still positive. The domestic heavy rare earth market still has support, and overall, the prices of the heavy rare earth market have slightly increased.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 879000 and 904000 units respectively in September, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 6.313 million and 6.278 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles has formed a certain support for the rare earth market, causing fluctuations in the domestic rare earth market trend.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export volume of rare earths in September was 3935.2 tons. The cumulative total export volume of rare earths in China from January to September was 40371.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The export volume of rare earths in China has increased, which to some extent supports the prices of the rare earth market.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources have issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2023. The total control indicators for the second batch of rare earth mining and smelting separation in 2023 are 120000 tons and 115000 tons, respectively. In 2023, the total control index of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 240000 tons and 230000 tons, respectively, an increase of 14.3% and 13.9% compared with 2022. The increase of mining output will correspondingly suppress the growth of rare earth market.

Future forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has declined, and the increase in new orders is limited. It is expected that in the short term, the pressure on rare earth market prices to rise will increase, and the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.