1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 926 yuan/ton on September 1st, and 883 yuan/ton on September 27th. The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 4.65% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and declined in September. In the first half of September, the market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises has decreased. Downstream demand has weakened, inquiries have decreased, and there is a resistance to high prices. The export market did not meet expectations, coupled with the decline in urea prices, which has a negative impact on ammonium sulfate. In the second half of September, the market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and fell. Before the holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm was not high, and market inquiries decreased, resulting in a wait-and-see attitude. The export sector is mainly supported by essential needs, and there is currently no significant improvement in the market. As of September 27th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 860 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 860-910 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 16, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate experienced a significant decline in September, with the largest drop occurring in the week of September 2nd at -0.55%.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market demand for ammonium sulfate has been poor recently, with downstream price cutting purchases and limited market transactions, with mostly low-priced transactions. There is currently no positive news before the holiday, and it is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market price will continue to weaken and decline in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on September 26th: 15700 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On September 26th, the domestic titanium dioxide market price remained stable temporarily. At present, the market trading is light, approaching the National Day holiday. Manufacturers remain stable, and market quotations are relatively flexible. Downstream and distributors are mainly observing, and actual orders are limited. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be subject to negotiation.

Prediction: It is expected that the trend of titanium dioxide will remain stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.

Since September, the asphalt market has been continuously bottoming out. According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of asphalt in Shandong region was 3520 yuan/ton on September 1st, and on September 24th, the market in Shandong region fell to 3410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.9%. The second round of decline is mainly due to poor demand.

On the demand side, demand remains weak and at a historically low level compared to the same period. Last week, typhoons made concentrated landfall in the southern region, and after experiencing “Capricorn” and “Beibijia”, demand gradually encountered obstacles from south to north. The shipment volume in East China, North China, and Shandong decreased, and the construction of downstream terminals in East China was affected by the typhoon weather, resulting in a slowdown in refinery shipments; The construction demand for projects in Shandong and North China has decreased, the trading atmosphere has weakened, and the shipment volume has decreased. Poor payment collection from construction sites, poor stocking enthusiasm of operators, and a strong bearish attitude towards spot prices. Yesterday, spot prices of asphalt in Northeast, North, Shandong, and East China regions all experienced a decline.

On the cost side, US commercial crude oil inventories are still at a five-year low, while Cushing crude oil inventories are approaching the critical point of historical low inventories. In addition, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and OPEC+has announced the postponement of production increases and flexible interventions to provide support for oil prices.

On the supply side, the pressure on the asphalt supply side is limited, and there is a possibility of a low-level increase in production. Last week, Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Company suspended production intermittently, resulting in a loss of 2 million tons/year of production capacity. Qilu Petrochemical has maintained stable production of asphalt, while Jinling Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical have slightly increased production, leading to an overall increase in operating rate. According to the production plan of local refineries in October, the domestic asphalt refining output was 1.33 million tons, an increase of 110000 tons or 9% compared to the previous month. The main refineries slightly reduced their production, but the local refining supply environment has slightly recovered. During the week, there was a significant decrease in social inventory in the Northeast region, mainly due to the shortened construction period of some projects in the area and the increasing willingness of operators to sell at low prices. The Yangtze River Delta region was also affected by typhoons, resulting in a backlog of refinery inventory, which led to an overall increase in factory inventory.

From the perspective of Shengyi Society, crude oil has stopped falling, and the cost side has strong support for asphalt. However, the overall demand for asphalt is relatively pessimistic, and the asphalt market is unlikely to improve in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8246 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 8233 yuan/ton on September 24, during which the quotation fell by 0.16%.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10350 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 10400 yuan/ton on September 24, with a price increase of 0.48% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8187 yuan/ton on September 17, and the average price was 8125 yuan/ton on September 24, during which the quotation fell by 0.76%.

Recently, the narrow adjustment of polyethylene prices has been the main focus. The cost side support has loosened, and the boost to the polyethylene market is limited. On the supply side, petrochemical inventory has increased. According to data statistics, as of September 23, the plastic two barrel oil storage had 810000 tons, an increase of 35000 tons from last week, a month on month increase of 4.52%, and a year-on-year increase of 40.87%. On the demand side, downstream agricultural film is in the peak season of demand, with continuous increase in operating rates and slow follow-up of greenhouse film orders. However, overall demand is lower than in previous years, with limited support and limited room for growth. Most traders offer discounts for shipments, and downstream transactions are easier with lower prices.

On September 24th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2501 contract opened at 7844 yuan and closed at 7969 yuan, up 95 yuan, with a high of 7978 yuan and a low of 7834 yuan, up 1.21%. Recently, the polyethylene futures market has fluctuated weakly, providing insufficient support for the spot market.

At the end of the month, enterprises actively destocked and exerted pressure on price increases; As the holiday approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase, and it is expected that the space for polyethylene to rise will be limited, with narrow range operation being the main focus.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine has been running weakly this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 20060 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 19860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1% and 17.93% compared to the same period last year. On August 25th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.38% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is running weakly, and the price of bromine in Shandong region is running weakly. The mainstream market price is around 19500-20500 yuan/ton. This week, it is not affected by weather factors, and the rainfall has significantly decreased. The bromine enterprise equipment is operating normally, and the operating rate remains stable. The production and demand for downstream flame retardants of bromine are generally average, and the demand for agriculture and intermediates is also average. Imports have remained stable at a high level recently. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating, with an average market price of 1384.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1397.67 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price has increased by 0.96%, which is 28.62% higher than the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, while upstream sulfur prices are expected to consolidate. Downstream flame retardant production is average, and demand for agriculture and intermediates is moderate. Demand is mainly driven by on-demand procurement. The overall supply-demand game predicts that bromine prices may continue to consolidate in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.