1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in a stepwise manner in December. At the beginning of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was 844 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price in the Shandong market was around 798 yuan/ton. The overall price dropped by 5.45%, a decrease of 29.26% compared to the same period last year. On December 28th, the chlor alkali index was 1108 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 55.62% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The quotation for caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively weak, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 730-800 yuan/ton. The prices for caustic soda in Jiangsu region are consolidating, while 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 760-860 yuan/ton. The prices for caustic soda in Hebei region are consolidating, with 32% of the mainstream market for ion exchange membrane caustic soda priced at around 730-760 yuan/ton.

The price of liquid alkali is weak, and the price of caustic soda is weak and consolidating this week. Downstream alumina has recently replenished inventory as needed, and there is a supply-demand game, resulting in weak caustic soda prices. Next week, it is expected that North China and production reduction facilities will gradually recover, and the current caustic soda prices will remain at a low level.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 51st week of 2023 (12.18-12.22), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 2 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include calcium carbide (0.56%), baking soda (0.50%), and PVC (0.07%); The main commodities falling are caustic soda (-1.46%) and caustic soda flakes (-0.93%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.18%.

Business Society analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and downstream demand is mainly cautious, with more purchases made according to demand. It is expected that the trend will be mainly consolidation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam on December 1st was 13162 yuan/ton, and on December 29th, the reference average price of domestic caprolactam was 13842 yuan/ton. This month, the market price of domestic caprolactam increased by 5.17%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic market price of caprolactam has risen this month. In the first half of December, the market price of caprolactam slightly decreased. The price of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, weakening cost support. Downstream demand has decreased, and procurement is more cautious. The caprolactam unit is gradually recovering, with an increase in supply. The market is mainly bearish, and the market for caprolactam is weakening. In the second half of December, the market price of caprolactam continued to rise. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream demand is stable, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The spot supply of caprolactam is tightening, and the support from the supply and demand sides is increasing. As of December 29th, the settlement price of Sinopec’s caprolactam is 14250 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene slightly decreased at the beginning of this month, but has been rising since mid month. On December 1st, the price was 6692 yuan/ton; On December 29th, the price was at 7230 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.03% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.68% from the same period last year.

Downstream PA6 market. This month, the cost side has strong support, coupled with temporary maintenance of some production line devices in the industry, leading to a contraction in market supply. At the same time, the impact of downstream expansion in the early stage has been supported by procurement, so there is a clear advantage on the market. As of December 29th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14675 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been operating strongly recently. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, with strong cost support. As the holiday approaches, downstream demand slows down. It is expected that the short-term price consolidation of caprolactam will be the main trend.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7746.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.46% from 7941.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the market for refined hydrogenated naphtha has fluctuated downward.

As of December 30th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7664.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.98% from 7899.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month, and the market for locally refined straight run naphtha has fluctuated downward.

Product: In December, the price of ground refined naphtha fluctuated downward. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 7700-7900 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7600-7800 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy and snowy weather in the north in the first half of December, logistics were affected, and market trading was light; In the second half of December, terminal demand procurement was the main focus, with no substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals was weak, with average trading volume, and refineries reduced prices for shipments.

Upstream: In December, the international crude oil price trend fluctuated downward, geopolitical factors eased, and shipping in the Red Sea region resumed. As a result, international oil prices have fallen. Inflation pressure still exists, and crude oil demand is poor. Currently, the demand for oil products in Europe and America is in the off-season, which has suppressed crude oil prices. The results of the OPEC+production policy meeting did not meet market expectations, and the reduction in production was less than expected; The voluntary nature of the reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side will face greater pressure in the future.

Downstream: In December, the toluene market was weak and slightly declined. At the beginning of the month, it was affected by a significant drop in international crude oil prices, causing a significant drop in the cost of toluene; Although international crude oil prices have rebounded significantly in the later stage, the demand for toluene is insufficient, coupled with the continuous increase in port inventories, the price trend is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly. In December, the mixed xylene market first fell and then rose, showing an overall downward trend. Currently, the domestic mixed xylene market is in the off-season, and downstream inquiries are light. The demand for mixed xylene continues to weaken. In December, the price trend of para xylene increased, and the spot supply of para xylene was normal. The domestic PX operating rate remained above 80%, but there were still some equipment maintenance, and there was little change in spot supply.

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the international crude oil market is volatile, increasing the wait-and-see sentiment in the naphtha market; The domestic gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, and there is no significant positive effect on the terminal of refined naphtha; After the holiday, some companies may replenish their essential goods, but merchants are cautious in chasing higher prices. It is expected that the refined naphtha market in the post holiday area will mainly consolidate.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the overall domestic 1 # tin ingot market was on the rise in December 2023. The average price in the domestic market was 196710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 214060 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 8.82%.

On December 27th, the base metal index was 1171 points, an increase of 6 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 82.40% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On December 27th, the tin commodity index was 108.96, an increase of 2.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.95% from the highest point in the cycle of 187.70 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 154.22% from the lowest point of 42.86 points on December 9th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-09-01 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The monthly K-bar chart shows significant fluctuations in tin prices. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin market has experienced more recent declines and less recent gains.

In December 2023, the tin ingot market as a whole showed an upward trend, with two significant increases during the month, occurring at the beginning and end of the month respectively, while maintaining a range of fluctuating trends during other times. At the beginning of the month, the overall trend of Shanghai tin was relatively strong, and the domestic spot market inventory was affected by downstream active stocking. Recently, the overall trend has declined, and the market has continued to rise due to demand boosting. At the end of the month, the Federal Reserve released a signal of monetary easing, leading to a general strengthening of base metals and a slight increase in Shanghai tin prices. From the perspective of supply and demand, the recent shutdown and maintenance of large enterprises in Yunnan region has led to a decline in the operating rate of domestic refined tin. According to market news, other enterprises have also planned maintenance in the near future, and the market expects a tight supply in the future, which has boosted the overall market atmosphere. In terms of demand, the market expectation for terminal consumption has improved, especially the market is optimistic about electronic product consumption in the fourth quarter, which has once again boosted market sentiment. However, currently, the actual sales situation of terminals has not significantly improved. Overall, the actual demand for tin ingots in the market is still weak, boosted by tight supply, and it is expected that the market will operate steadily with a stronger trend. In the future, it is still necessary to focus on inventory changes and macro factors.

Related data:

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of tin ore sand and concentrate in China in November 2023 was 27872 tons (equivalent to 7279 metal tons), an increase of 6.25% year-on-year and 43% month on month.

The latest data released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) on December 13 shows that in October 2023, global refined tin production was 31400 tons, consumption was 31100 tons, and there was an oversupply of 0.0200 tons. In October 2023, the global tin ore production was 27400 tons. From January to October 2023, the global refined tin production was 288900 tons, with a consumption of 279200 tons and an oversupply of 9700 tons. From January to October 2023, the global tin ore production was 254000 tons.

According to data released by the Indonesian Ministry of Trade on December 11th, the export volume of refined tin products from Indonesia in November 2023 was 7562.55 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend remained stable in December. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4000 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the year-on-year price decreased by 6.54%.

In December, the domestic ammonium nitrate market prices remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the sales situation is average. Downstream demand is normal, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, and domestic purchases in the downstream civil explosive industry have been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3800-3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China declined in December, with an average price of 2183.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 2.96% compared to the price of 2250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2300 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer prices ranging from 2200 to 2300 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market has not changed much, and the cost trend has slightly decreased. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market transaction situation is not good, and industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see. The on-site price of nitric acid has slightly decreased, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is stable.

In December, the domestic liquid ammonia market prices were mainly volatile. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 3916.67 yuan/ton. In December, the price of liquid ammonia first increased and then decreased. Overall, the price change is not significant. In early December, due to tight supply, the northern region was mainly affected by equipment maintenance by manufacturers, and some devices were put into operation under reduced load. The supply volume was delayed and manufacturers and distributors reported an increase in prices. In the later stage, the maintenance equipment was restarted, and the amount of ammonia released increased. The price trend of liquid ammonia in the market declined, and since December, the import supply has been relatively normal. From the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable, and the atmosphere of urea speculation is falling, which is bearish for the domestic liquid ammonia market. The trend of the liquid ammonia market is falling. Overall, the price of liquid ammonia in the market slightly increased in December, and the fluctuation of ammonium nitrate prices was not significant due to this impact.

Recently, there has been an increase in downstream purchase orders, but the market price of raw material nitric acid has declined, and the price trend of liquid ammonia has shown a downward trend. The combined influence of bullish and bearish factors has led to a stable trend in the market price of ammonium nitrate in the future, according to analy

sts from Business Society.