According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of October 17th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 5250 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price fell sharply, with a decrease of 1.87%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 5200 yuan/ton.

This week, the overall DMF market experienced a narrow decline, with prices falling by 1.87% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 5200.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is average. There is insufficient demand, and upstream cost support is average. Currently, manufacturers are shipping smoothly, and they are selling at a profit margin.

Chemical index: On October 16, the chemical index was 926 points, a decrease of 5 points from yesterday, a decrease of 33.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 54.85% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

DMF analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the DMF market will operate steadily and weakly.

This week, the lead market (10.6-10.13) fluctuated and declined, with the average price in the domestic market at 16500 yuan/ton over the weekend and 16300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 1.21%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of fluctuations. The recent market trend has been relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks. After September, the overall market has slightly decreased.

In terms of the futures market, it has been fluctuating and declining this week, with inventory of lead rising to over 90000 tons, reaching a new high since June 2021. After the holiday, the spot market has increased in supply and the market mentality is weak. In terms of supply and demand, some enterprises in the main production area will undergo maintenance after October, but some enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance will resume production, so the overall change in supply is not significant. As the weather turns colder on the demand side, the seasonal peak season is approaching its end, and market expectations for the future market have been lowered, resulting in an overall weak market mentality. Overall, the peak season of the lead ingot market is coming to an end, with high overseas inventory and approaching delivery date. Currently, overall social inventory is high, and the market is operating weakly under high inventory pressure. The bearish trend is currently expected to be weak in the lead ingot market as a whole.

On October 15th, the base metal index stood at 1191 points, unchanged from yesterday, a 26.30% decrease from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an 85.51% increase from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were four commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices in the 41st week of 2023 (10.9-10.13), with cobalt (1.10%), nickel (0.44%), and titanium concentrate (0.15%) ranking among the top three commodities. There are a total of 15 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with zinc (-4.64%), lead (-1.98%), and aluminum (-1.70%) being the top three products in terms of decline. This week’s average rise and fall was -0.66%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide SG5 decreased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5930 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5842 yuan/ton. The price fell by 1.48% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic spot market price of PVC fell. The upstream calcium carbide market prices have temporarily stabilized and reorganized, with futures opening at a low price after the holiday. During the week, the futures market weakened slightly, and there was a significant lack of confidence in the futures markets. PVC spot prices have been lowered. In terms of demand, the downstream market procurement is not active after the holiday, and the trading atmosphere on the market is weak. Many people are cautious and wait, and the overall transaction situation is weak, with just the need for replenishment being the main focus. As of now, the quotation range for PVC5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5520-5940 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on October 12th, international crude oil futures were mixed. US WTI crude oil futures closed higher, with the main contract settlement price at $82.91 per barrel, up 0.58 US dollars or 0.7%. Brent crude oil futures fell, with the main contract settlement price at $86.00 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.2%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by the Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with an average domestic price of 2966.67 yuan/ton. The upstream price of blue charcoal is stable and relatively strong, with good cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, and the demand for calcium carbide has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts from Business Society believe that the trading volume in the PVC spot market is relatively light this week. Upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stabilized and sorted, with average support. Futures prices have mostly declined, suppressing confidence in the spot market and causing a decline in the PVC spot market. It is expected that the PVC market will experience slight fluctuations in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on October 6th was 5733 yuan/ton. On October 12th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5800 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.16% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has decreased. The cost side is mixed. Downstream on-demand procurement, procurement needs are cautious, and market transactions are average. Due to the continuous high prices of raw material liquid wax, some chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have raised prices with the increase of raw materials. As of October 12th, the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui Province is about 6300 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 5100-5900 yuan/ton, which is environmentally friendly.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to rise this week, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has been lowered this week, and it has stabilized in the later stage. The market situation is mainly fluctuating and the operation is being sorted out.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the trend of raw material prices has stabilized recently, and cost support is still ongoing. Downstream demand is weak, and market trading is weak, waiting for terminal demand to be released. It is expected that the short-term stable consolidation and operation of chlorinated paraffin prices will be the main focus, and it is recommended to pay attention to changes in the raw material market.

Product name: Isooctanol

Latest price (October 11th): 12600.00/ton

On October 11th, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province slightly increased, with a price increase of 250 yuan/ton or 2.02% compared to October 10th, and a year-on-year increase of 35.97%. Upstream propylene prices have stabilized at high levels, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has slightly increased, leading to an increase in downstream demand. Multiple benefits are good, but the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand.

Recently, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong region may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 12700 yuan/ton.