Product name: PVC

Latest price: 5950 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On October 9th, the spot market price of PVC was lowered, and the atmosphere on the market was average. In terms of raw materials, the factory price of upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable. In terms of futures, futures closed lower today, with a significant degree of weakness. At present, the overall confidence of the two cities is insufficient, suppressing the mentality of the PVC market. The factory prices of manufacturers have been lowered, and downstream product manufacturers are buying at low prices. The transaction at low prices is still acceptable.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation operations.

This week (October 2-8), during the National Day holiday, the overall market for viscose staple fibers remained stable, prices remained stable, and the signing of orders was average. The performance of human cotton yarn was average, and there were not many orders from the yarn factory. The prices of viscose staple fiber raw materials such as dissolved pulp and auxiliary materials such as caustic soda are at a high level, with strong cost support, which has a strong supporting effect on the price of viscose staple fiber. The start-up rate of the viscose staple fiber industry has basically maintained, and the overall industry load has increased to around 79%. Manufacturers’ inventory pressure is not high, and shipments are slightly tight. Downstream people’s cotton yarn is relatively flat, with few new orders and just a need for replenishment. Overall, the shipment is stable, and the price is stable. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Viscose staple fiber price trend chart

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of viscose staple fiber remained stable this week (October 2-8). As of October 8, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 13480 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price.

In terms of cost: This week (October 2-8), the prices of raw materials such as dissolved pulp and acid-base remained stable at high levels. Hunan and Shandong manufacturers produced broadleaf dissolved pulp, and the quotation for domestic dissolved pulp was raised to around 7500-7600 yuan/ton. The transaction volume for imported broadleaf dissolved pulp was 860 US dollars/ton, and that for needle leaf dissolved pulp was around 870-880 US dollars/ton.

Supply demand: The operating rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is basically maintained, and the overall industry load has risen to around 79%. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high, and shipments are slightly tight. The human cotton yarn factory mainly consumes inventory, and the enthusiasm for replenishment is currently not high. The human cotton yarn is relatively flat, and there are not many new orders that just need to be replenished. Overall, shipments are stable.

Downstream cotton yarn market

This week (October 2-8), the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable, with stable prices and average overall sales. As of October 8th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first class) was 17650 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. There are not many new orders that just need to be restocked, and the overall shipment is average. The demand from downstream weaving manufacturers is still relatively flat, and the improvement is not significant.

Future Market Forecast

The textile market is currently in a traditional peak season, with strong cost support. The inventory of the viscose staple fiber industry is at a medium to low level, which is expected to bring a strong boost to the price of viscose staple fibers. Analysts from Business Society predict that in the short term, the overall market for viscose staple fibers and rayon yarn will be relatively strong, and prices will slightly increase.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.31%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 45.95% year-on-year. On September 27th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.35, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.05% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 50.56% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and rose in September. The price of propylene increased from 7113.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7285.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 4.27% year-on-year. The rising cost support is good, which has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol saw a significant increase in September. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.36%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 3.81% year-on-year. The downstream market has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early October, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The market situation of downstream neopentyl glycol has significantly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China this week slightly declined. On the 28th, the market reported around 13710 yuan/ton, and on the 25th, it reported around 13740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%. The recent rise in crude oil prices has boosted the domestic market. The raw material acrylonitrile market is on the rise, while the acrylic acid market is weak. The cost of polyacrylamide is fluctuating. Enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, the market supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and commodity circulation is slow. The mainstream market of polyacrylamide is slightly weak.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market has risen this week. As of September 28th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.5% from 9487.50 yuan/ton on September 25th. At present, the supply side is basically stable, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not high, and the demand side has strong demand support. In addition, the high prices of raw materials are expected to maintain a strong market price for acrylonitrile in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the acrylic acid market has declined this week. As of September 28th, the average price of acrylic acid in the East China region was 875.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.14% from 7025.00 yuan/ton on September 25th. Recently, there has been limited cost support, with some enterprise devices restarting and increasing market spot supply. Downstream inquiry and procurement enthusiasm is not high, and high-end price negotiations in the market are slightly weak. Holders are actively shipping, and the acrylic acid market atmosphere is weak.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, domestic liquefied natural gas prices have fallen this week. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has weakened, and there is a strong willingness to discharge inventory in the upcoming holiday market. A new round of bidding for raw gas is about to start, with the industry mainly focusing on wait-and-see. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas will be slightly consolidated and operated in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: The prices of raw materials have fluctuated this week, the overall fuel market is active, and the cost of polyacrylamide is weak. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, with little change in market transactions. The polyacrylamide market remained stable and slightly weakened. It is expected that the demand side situation will continue to determine the market trend, and the probability will remain stable.

Zinc prices fluctuate and consolidate this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 22, the zinc price was 22174 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.01% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 22172 yuan/ton on September 15. The fundamentals are mixed, with limited fluctuations in zinc prices. The daily fluctuations in zinc prices have not exceeded 1%, and zinc prices have fluctuated and consolidated in a narrow range this week.

Zinc market fundamentals

The hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve boosted the US dollar index, with 10-year US Treasury yields hitting new highs. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the number of initial jobless claims in the week of September 16th decreased by 20000 after seasonal adjustments. The US labor market remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve has significantly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 and its GDP forecast for 2024. Macro positive, zinc market macro positive.

In terms of supply, the supply of zinc concentrate is relatively loose, and with high profits from smelters, the supply of zinc ingots increases. Coupled with the opening of the zinc ingot import window, the supply of zinc in the market increases; In terms of demand, the renovation of urban villages and the preparation of goods before the Double Festival have stimulated demand in the zinc market, and the consumption of infrastructure and home appliances has strengthened. However, real estate has dragged down consumption in the zinc market, and the actual effect of policy incentives has not been obvious. The accumulation of finished product warehouses has forced the operating rate of galvanized pipe enterprises to decline, and the growth rate of demand in the zinc market lags behind supply, making it difficult to reverse the trend of overcapacity. The overall zinc market is oversupplied, and there are still bearish prospects in the zinc market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the macroeconomic expectations of the international market have rebounded, and the positive support for the zinc market has increased. The domestic supply and demand expectations have both increased, but the supply growth rate is expected to be faster than the demand growth rate, resulting in an oversupply of zinc in the domestic market. Overall, the macro outlook is positive for both supply and demand, but the zinc market is oversupplied, making it difficult to determine the rise or fall of zinc prices. It is expected that zinc prices will consolidate in a narrow range in the future.